[comp.arch] In computing, late-bloomers are usually never-bloomers

eric@snark.uu.net (Eric S. Raymond) (12/03/89)

In <1933@eric.mpr.ca> Michael Hui wrote:
> GaAs cannot be a dead end. It is used quite a bit in microwave circuits,
> and now you can get industry standard pin-out and function PALs from
> Gazelle in GaAs.

Of course GaAs is useful for microwave and DSP -- what I don't believe is
that it will ever become a mainstream commodity process like CMOS or NMOS
or even ECL. There will always be *some* customers willing to buy such
technology, generally DOD or other organizations with weak cost-control.

Perhaps I didn't make my reasoning clear enough. Given the usual development
timescale of digital electronics, I claim that if GaAs were really such a
smart idea it would *already* be rich.

GaAs is still poking around in niche markets umpteen years after the pioneers,
without ever having entered a regime of exponential capacity growth and
inverse-exponential price drop.

In this industry, technologies with such a profile are usually losers based
on a fundamental misreading either of engineering possibility or economics.
Niche markets and the enthusiasm of a few can keep them breathing stertorously
but they tend to end up having zero impact on the development of computing as
a whole.

Lisp machines. Forth machines. `Hybrid computing'. Thin-film memory. In 
software, APL...PL/1...Algol 68. Computing history is littered with the
corpses of these perpetually promising youngsters. Today, we have ADA and OS/2.
And tomorrow, I am nearly sure `commodity GaAs' will join this dismal list.
-- 
      Eric S. Raymond = eric@snark.uu.net    (mad mastermind of TMN-Netnews)

henry@utzoo.uucp (Henry Spencer) (12/03/89)

In article <1TfOZ0#142gXX=eric@snark.uu.net> eric@snark.uu.net (Eric S. Raymond) writes:
>GaAs is still poking around in niche markets umpteen years after the pioneers,
>without ever having entered a regime of exponential capacity growth and
>inverse-exponential price drop.

The basic problem with GaAs is the killer-micro syndrome again:  it's not
that GaAs is all that bad, but that it is competing with silicon.  In the
time it took you to read the previous sentence, the world's semiconductor
industries spent several thousand dollars on improving silicon-based
technology.  Given that silicon is pretty good stuff, and seems to be
nowhere near any important fundamental limits, competing with this
juggernaut is almost impossibly difficult.  Competing technologies have
to be a *lot* better to make any headway at all.  GaAs just does not seem
to be sufficiently better to capture anything more than niche markets.
-- 
Mars can wait:  we've barely   |     Henry Spencer at U of Toronto Zoology
started exploring the Moon.    | uunet!attcan!utzoo!henry henry@zoo.toronto.edu

cmt@myrias.com (Chris Thomson) (12/10/89)

In article <1TfOZ0#142gXX=eric@snark.uu.net> eric@snark.uu.net (Eric S. Raymond) writes:
>In this industry, technologies with such a profile are usually losers based
>on a fundamental misreading either of engineering possibility or economics.
>Niche markets and the enthusiasm of a few can keep them breathing stertorously
>but they tend to end up having zero impact on the development of computing as
>a whole.
>
>Lisp machines. Forth machines. `Hybrid computing'. Thin-film memory. In 
>software, APL...PL/1...Algol 68. Computing history is littered with the
>corpses of these perpetually promising youngsters. Today, we have ADA and OS/2.
>And tomorrow, I am nearly sure `commodity GaAs' will join this dismal list.

APL, PL/I and Algol68 had considerably more than zero impact.  The impact of
Algol68 in particular has been far reaching, even though the language itself
is not used much anymore.  Algol-W, Pascal, Modula and Ada all owe their
heritage directly to Algol68.  C was influenced heavily by Algol68.  PL/I
(may it fade away quietly) also contributed valuable lessons in language
design.  APL features keep popping up, for instance as vector-valued
subscripts in F8X.
-- 
Chris Thomson, Myrias Research Corporation   uunet!myrias!cmt or cmt@myrias.com
900 10611 98 Ave, Edmonton Alberta, Canada   Tel 403-428-1616  Fax 403-421-8979

eric@snark.uu.net (Eric S. Raymond) (12/12/89)

In <629274691.11005@myrias.com> Chris Thomson wrote:
> Algol68 in particular has been far reaching, even though the language itself
> is not used much anymore.  Algol-W, Pascal, Modula and Ada all owe their
> heritage directly to Algol68.  C was influenced heavily by Algol68.

Sorry, but this is quite wrong. You're thinking of Algol-60.

> PL/1 (may it fade away quietly) also contributed valuable lessons in language
> design.

Yeah. All negative, and all still unlearned by many of those who should know
better -- witness ADA. I wish PL/1's impact *had* been nonzero...

>         APL features keep popping up, for instance as vector-valued
> subscripts in F8X.

Sorry, you'll have to do better than this. PPL and even some versions of BASIC
had array-valued subscripting before APL.

This is wandering out of comp.arch's demesne. Followups to comp.lang.misc
please.
-- 
      Eric S. Raymond = eric@snark.uu.net    (mad mastermind of TMN-Netnews)

gerry@zds-ux.UUCP (Gerry Gleason) (12/21/89)

In article <629274691.11005@myrias.com> cmt@myrias.com (Chris Thomson) writes:
>. . .  APL features keep popping up, for instance as vector-valued
>subscripts in F8X.

The best use I've seen for APL was in a book on ALU architecture.  They
used APL algorithms to describe hardware, with vector operations mapping
to arrays of hardware elements and control/data flow mapping to
interconnections.  The APL descriptions were at least as clear as block
diagrams would be.

Also, your comments on Algol (Algol60 is probably the right reference)
are right on.  It's the grandaddy of all block structured languages.

Gerry Gleason

johnl@esegue.segue.boston.ma.us (John R. Levine) (12/21/89)

In article <53@zds-ux.UUCP> gerry@zds-ux.UUCP (Gerry Gleason) writes:
>The best use I've seen for APL was in a book on ALU architecture.  They
>used APL algorithms to describe hardware, ...

The first place many of us saw APL was in the IBM Systems Journal in 1964.
There was a description of the architecture of the new System/360 written
entirely in an early version of APL.  It was quite complete, even to such
things as the emergency pull switch.

It was the same issue with Brezenham's classic article about how to draw a
straight line on a raster device, a pen plotter attached to a 1620.  There
is some extra cruft in the presentation of the method because he wanted to
avoid an integer division by two which was very slow.
-- 
John R. Levine, Segue Software, POB 349, Cambridge MA 02238, +1 617 864 9650
johnl@esegue.segue.boston.ma.us, {ima|lotus|spdcc}!esegue!johnl
"Now, we are all jelly doughnuts."

pcg@aber-cs.UUCP (Piercarlo Grandi) (12/22/89)

In article <1989Dec21.013530.2455@esegue.segue.boston.ma.us> johnl@esegue.segue.boston.ma.us (John R. Levine) writes:
    
    It was the same issue with Brezenham's classic article about how to draw a
    straight line on a raster device, a pen plotter attached to a 1620.  There
    is some extra cruft in the presentation of the method because he wanted to
    avoid an integer division by two which was very slow.

A thought that surely has architectural implications: there is another
algorithm to rasterize lines, that is based on algebra and grammars. The idea
is that the line to draw is really made up of one section repeated over and
over, you just calculate this section and then copy it again and again. It
does not do this by making (albeit simple) decisions at every point to draw.
The algorithm was published, apparently around the same time as Brezenham's,
by a Belgian mathematician.

Guess what, it has never bloomed. Very few graphics people even know about
it, as it was a nice result of algebraic theory. Will it bloom? It is easy
to see that (especially important with the increasing resolution of modern
devices) it can be much faster than Bresenham's.
-- 
Piercarlo "Peter" Grandi           | ARPA: pcg%cs.aber.ac.uk@nsfnet-relay.ac.uk
Dept of CS, UCW Aberystwyth        | UUCP: ...!mcvax!ukc!aber-cs!pcg
Penglais, Aberystwyth SY23 3BZ, UK | INET: pcg@cs.aber.ac.uk