[sci.bio] Coelocanth and evolution: x

sharp@hpfcdj.HP.COM (Darrin Sharp) (06/03/91)

	Last night, on the "National Geographic Explorer",
	there was a segment on the coelocanth (sp?). This
	is a fish that was thought to be extinct, but live
	specimens were rediscovered in the 1930's off the
	S.E. coast of Africa. Since then, several are
	caught each year.

	The show made mention of the fact that these fish
	were unchanged for the last 400 million years.

	I know that outwardly, the live specimens very closely
	resemble the 400 million year old fossils. But how
	can this be? Is it common for organisms to not evolve
	for 400 million years? How long has it been since sharks
	and alligators/turtles/crocodiles evolved? Any other
	species that haven't changed in this long? 

	Darrin Sharp (sharp@hpfcla.fc.hp.com)

wrp@biochsn.acc.Virginia.EDU (William R. Pearson) (06/04/91)

In article <17580003@hpfcdj.HP.COM> sharp@hpfcdj.HP.COM (Darrin Sharp) writes:
]
]	Last night, on the "National Geographic Explorer",
]	there was a segment on the coelocanth (sp?). This
]	is a fish that was thought to be extinct, but live
]	specimens were rediscovered in the 1930's off the
]	S.E. coast of Africa. Since then, several are
]	caught each year.
]
]	The show made mention of the fact that these fish
]	were unchanged for the last 400 million years.
]
]	I know that outwardly, the live specimens very closely
]	resemble the 400 million year old fossils. But how
]	can this be? Is it common for organisms to not evolve
]	for 400 million years? How long has it been since sharks
]	and alligators/turtles/crocodiles evolved? Any other
]	species that haven't changed in this long? 
]
]	Darrin Sharp (sharp@hpfcla.fc.hp.com)

	This claim is frequently made about animals that physically
resemble ancient ancestors.  It is, of course, false.  There are many
examples of "primitive" organisms that exist in an "unchanged" state.
At the molecular level, their enzymes and DNA have diverged at the same
rate as "modern" animals.  If an organism is living today, it is "modern,"
regardless of how it looks.

Bill Pearson

vamg6792@uxa.cso.uiuc.edu (Vincent A Mazzarella) (06/04/91)

>	This claim is frequently made about animals that physically
>resemble ancient ancestors.  It is, of course, false.  There are many
>examples of "primitive" organisms that exist in an "unchanged" state.
>At the molecular level, their enzymes and DNA have diverged at the same
>rate as "modern" animals.  If an organism is living today, it is "modern,"
>regardless of how it looks.

But, of course, genomes of every human is quite different from every other
human. What matters are those differences causing a change in phenotype.
While the genome of a coelocanth has changed over the millenia, it is
noted that the meaningful changes, those that cause phenotypic changes,
have been few.

The way you present "primitive" and "modern" is pretty much semantics
and an absolutist, old metaphysical philosophy.

--

Vincent Mazzarella
College of Medicine, Neuroscience Program
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
e-mail: mazz@vmd.cso.uiuc.edu

christo@psych.toronto.edu (Christopher Green) (06/04/91)

In article <17580003@hpfcdj.HP.COM> sharp@hpfcdj.HP.COM (Darrin Sharp) writes:
>
>	Last night, on the "National Geographic Explorer",
>	there was a segment on the coelocanth (sp?).
[...]
>	The show made mention of the fact that these fish
>	were unchanged for the last 400 million years.
[...]
>	How can this be? Is it common for organisms to not evolve
>	for 400 million years? How long has it been since sharks
>	and alligators/turtles/crocodiles evolved? Any other
>	species that haven't changed in this long? 

Read up on punctuated equilibrium. Niles Eldridge's _Time_Frames_ is
a good popular account. The more technical stuff can be found in _Dynamics_
_of_Macroevolutionary_Theory_ (or something close to that). Great stuff!
Have fun!
    

-- 
Christopher D. Green
Psychology Department                             e-mail:
University of Toronto                   christo@psych.toronto.edu
Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A1                cgreen@lake.scar.utoronto.ca 

sarima@tdatirv.UUCP (Stanley Friesen) (06/05/91)

In article <17580003@hpfcdj.HP.COM> sharp@hpfcdj.HP.COM (Darrin Sharp) writes:
>	Last night, on the "National Geographic Explorer",
>	there was a segment on the coelocanth (sp?). This
>	is a fish that was thought to be extinct, but live
>	specimens were rediscovered in the 1930's off the
>	S.E. coast of Africa. Since then, several are
>	caught each year.

Sigh, I would have hoped NGE would get this right.  The coelacanth is a
species in a *group* of fish that was thought to be extinct.  The living
species of coelacanth was completely unknown prior to its discovery in
the '30's.  It closest known relatives are fossils from many millions of
years ago.  There are not even any fairly recent fossil relatives.  Thus,
in the absence of any 'recent' fossils or any known recent species the
whole group was assumed to be extinct.

>	The show made mention of the fact that these fish
>	were unchanged for the last 400 million years.

Bull****!  They are *little* changed, having essentially the same anatomy
as their 400 MY old relatives.  But in many details, some of them
significant, they have changed considerably.

It is easy for even a non-biologist to tell the difference between the
coelacanth and it closest (400 MY old) relative.  They *look* different.
[About as different as a goldfish and a river carp].

>	I know that outwardly, the live specimens very closely
>	resemble the 400 million year old fossils. But how
>	can this be? Is it common for organisms to not evolve
>	for 400 million years? How long has it been since sharks
>	and alligators/turtles/crocodiles evolved? Any other
>	species that haven't changed in this long? 

*No* species are unchanged for this long.  NGE was wrong.

The earliest sharks probably predate the lobe-fin fishes (the group to
which the coelacanth belongs).  They were, however, quite different
than modern sharks.  Sharks of more or less modern aspect appeared very
early though, perhaps about the same time as the earliest lobe-fins.
And the modern sharks are about as similar to these early sharks as
the living coelacanth is to its early relatives.

Crocodiles of more or less modern form appeared about 150 MY ago (give or
take 20 MY).  Except for size these would be almost indistinguishable
from modern forms (except to an expert).  The earliest crocodiles appeared
about 220 MY ago.  But these forms were very different, and I think even
a layperson could tell them from modern crocs.  (Alligators are, to a
biologist, essentially just specialized crocodiles).

Turtles are, for land animals, very ancient.  The lineage may go back as far
as 300 MY with almost no change in basic anatomy.  (I am unsure of the dates
here, I have not studied turtles in any depth).
-- 
---------------
uunet!tdatirv!sarima				(Stanley Friesen)

abbott@ecsvax.uncecs.edu (John P. Abbott) (06/05/91)

More coelocanth.  Short article in
_New Scientist_, May 25, 1991, p13 (vol.130 no. 1770).
"Hunt is on for the last of the "fossil" fish", Sue
Armstrong.

kliman@mbcl.rutgers.edu (06/06/91)

In article <18@tdatirv.UUCP>, sarima@tdatirv.UUCP (Stanley Friesen) writes:
> In article <17580003@hpfcdj.HP.COM> sharp@hpfcdj.HP.COM (Darrin Sharp) writes:
 
>>	I know that outwardly, the live specimens very closely
>>	resemble the 400 million year old fossils. But how
>>	can this be? Is it common for organisms to not evolve
>>	for 400 million years? How long has it been since sharks
>>	and alligators/turtles/crocodiles evolved? Any other
>>	species that haven't changed in this long? 
 
> *No* species are unchanged for this long.  NGE was wrong.
 
This is clearly a question of semantics.  As far as I know, there is no rule 
that phenotypic change must occur within some specified period of time (e.g., 
400 MY).  That is not to say that such change has not occurred in the 
coelocanth.  However, there are far too many organisms yet to be discovered to
categorically state that phenotypic stasis does not occur.

Genotypic change is a different story - it should occur at whatever the neutral
mutation rate is for every given region of the genome, if all of the rules of 
neutral evolution are obeyed.  So by this definition of "change," even 
organisms with no clear phenotypic change over time are evolving at the 
nucleotide level.  

Still, it seems to me that there must be plenty of cases out there of organisms
resembling, at a morphological level, their far distant ancestors; natural 
selection can favor ancient phenotypes if they remain superior, thereby 
overwhelming the force of mutation.  Why not?

- Rich Kliman

barger@aristotle.ils.nwu.edu (Jorn Barger) (06/06/91)

christo@psych.toronto.edu (Christopher Green) writes:

> Read up on punctuated equilibrium. Niles Eldridge's _Time_Frames_ is
> a good popular account. The more technical stuff can be found in _Dynamics_
> _of_Macroevolutionary_Theory_ (or something close to that). Great stuff!
> Have fun!

I'm a bit disappointed that only one coelocanth-followup mentions this
obvious-but-still-apparently-under-disseminated viewpoint.  This is hot
stuff indeed, and theoretically revolutionary.  The argument is that the
classic pattern of evolution is not a smooth, gradual blurring from one
species to another, but an alternation of relative quiescence and relatively
rapid phenotypic transformation.

I'll take this opportunity to present again my best guess as to the mechanism
at work here:

What has to be explained is why there may be adaptive mutations present in
a genepool, _that don't spread through the entire population_.  What is
the conservative principle balancing natural selection?

I claim it is sexual selection.  If an ideal sexual stereotype is set up
early on in the evolution of a new species, as it must be, then it may
serve to reduce the sexual attractiveness of new adaptations that deviate
from that stereotype.  Perhaps a wide range of favorable adaptations can
build up at the fringes of the genepool, in marginal niches where a slight
adaptive superiority counts for more than sex-appeal, but never spread through
the rest of the population, breaking through instead only when a change in
the environment makes the niche marginal for the entire population.

(Bonus question: what B-movie title is a fitting summary of this view?)

vamg6792@uxa.cso.uiuc.edu (Vincent A Mazzarella) (06/06/91)

What the Nat'l Geographic program failed to relay was the fact that the
behaviour of the coelecanth has changed. 

While the intrepid scientists showed that the fish stands on its head
presumably like an antenna detecting distant delectable dipoles, 

this has not always been its behaviour. Apparently, the ability to detect
food by weak dipoles has actually diminished in this ancient fish, since
cargo ships in the vicinity have lost microwave ovens in the seas around
the Camorro islands. The fish, in an almost unheard of use of tools, now
relies on microwave cooking for meals. Had the submarines tailing these
ancient-like fish been able to follow them into their crevices, they
would have seen the remains of many TV dinners, much like those of many
who watch these documentaries.


--

Vincent Mazzarella
College of Medicine, Neuroscience Program
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
e-mail: mazz@vmd.cso.uiuc.edu

sarima@tdatirv.UUCP (Stanley Friesen) (06/07/91)

In article <471.284d6041@mbcl.rutgers.edu> kliman@mbcl.rutgers.edu writes:
>In article <18@tdatirv.UUCP>, sarima@tdatirv.UUCP (Stanley Friesen) writes:
>> *No* species are unchanged for this long.  NGE was wrong.
> 
>This is clearly a question of semantics.  As far as I know, there is no rule 
>that phenotypic change must occur within some specified period of time (e.g., 
>400 MY).

Perhaps so.  But there is no known living *species* that is more than a few
million years old (certainly no more than 10 MY).  And *most* living species
are around one million years old (or even younger).

I would require truly impressive evidence before I would accept a claim
that a *species* was anything like 400 MY old.  Even genera almost never
survive *that* long.  (In fact I believe that the living coelacanth is
in a genus different from all of the extinct forms).  (Hmm, come to think
of it I know of *no* genus that has lasted 400 MY years - I am not even
certain if any *family* of sharks or turtles is that old - though one of
the families of agnathans may be that old).

>Still, it seems to me that there must be plenty of cases out there of organisms
>resembling, at a morphological level, their far distant ancestors; natural 
>selection can favor ancient phenotypes if they remain superior, thereby 
>overwhelming the force of mutation.  Why not?

Quite true.  But none are so closely identical (even morphologically) as to
be considered to be the same species.  Why this is so is, perhaps,
a problem worth studying, but it is nonetheless true (by observation).

My guess would be that no environment has remained sufficiently unchanged
for more than a few million years for identical phenotypes to continue
to be advantageous.  The least changed forms I know of are probably
crocodiles, but even they are detectably different.
-- 
---------------
uunet!tdatirv!sarima				(Stanley Friesen)

arlin@ac.dal.ca (06/07/91)

In article <17580003@hpfcdj.HP.COM>, sharp@hpfcdj.HP.COM (Darrin Sharp) writes:
> 
> 	Last night, on the "National Geographic Explorer",
> 	there was a segment on the coelocanth (sp?). This
> 	is a fish that was thought to be extinct, but live
> 	specimens were rediscovered in the 1930's off the
> 	S.E. coast of Africa. Since then, several are
> 	caught each year.
> 
> 	The show made mention of the fact that these fish
> 	were unchanged for the last 400 million years.
> 
> 	I know that outwardly, the live specimens very closely
> 	resemble the 400 million year old fossils. But how
> 	can this be? Is it common for organisms to not evolve
> 	for 400 million years? How long has it been since sharks
> 	and alligators/turtles/crocodiles evolved? Any other
> 	species that haven't changed in this long? 
> 
> 	Darrin Sharp (sharp@hpfcla.fc.hp.com)



Previous respondents have made rigid statements, and I hope they haven't
discouraged you.  As several people have pointed out, it is a bit odd to speak
of a "living fossil," and it is quite true that all extant species are "modern"
in the sense of living in the present and being the product of the last 4.6
billion years of evolution.  However, the respondents misunderstand the word
"primitive."   Also, to insist that there is no such thing as a living fossil
and that all organisms evolve at the molecular level is to miss the point,
since it does absolutely nothing to explain why the coelocanth (if that is how
one spells it-- I forget) and other primitive species have undergone less
apparent morphological change than one might expect.

"Primitive" may be a value judgement sometimes-- when used in reference to
professional hockey, for example-- but in evolution it can have a precise
meaning, when used carefully.  Any two species will have had a common ancestor
at some time in the past: the species that is more similar to the ancestor is
more primitive, in the exact sense.  Usually, it is misleading to talk about
whole organisms-- much better to speak of component properties.  The ancestor
of humans and whales walked on land.  The terrestrial habit of humans can thus
be considered primitive in comparison to the whale's marine habit.  One can
think of E. coli  (as opposed to H. sapiens) as primitive in that it is
unicellular, however, many features of this bacterium are probably not
primitive.  Thus, it is easy to use the word "primitive" in an exact and
objective way, provided that one actually knows something about the relevant
ancestor (this is often difficult).

The coelocanth looks alot like some 400 MY-old fossils, and that is why people
can correctly call it primitive.  To be precise, its gross morphology is
primitive:  note that 1) as one respondent pointed out, no one can tell about
the details of external or internal morphology; and 2) as many respondents
pointed out, this apparent morphological primitiveness does not imply molecular
primitiveness.  There is good reason to expect that coelocanth molecules have
been diverging from the ancestral type just as do those of other organisms.
The Port Jackson Shark is another morphologically primitive species: it has a
morphology similar to that of some sharks from the Carboniferous period (ca.
300 MYA).  When the hemoglobin proteins of this shark were sequenced over 15
years ago (Fisher, et al., Aust. J. Biol. Sci. 30: 487), it was made clear that
molecular evolution in the shark is proceeding at a rate similar to that seen
in other organisms, even though the gross morphology of the shark changes very
slowly.  A similar result has been obtained for the case of the opossum,
another organism whose morphology has remained substantially unchanged for a
long time, in this case for roughly 150 MY (see Stenzel, Nature 252: 62).

So . . . many respondents have corrected the way you stated your question ("is
it common for species to not evolve?") by pointing out, as I have, that every
organism is expected to evolve at the molecular level, regardless of the rate
of evolution at the morphological level.  But this doesn't answer the intent of
your question, does it?  Its exciting to think of primitive organisms and to
imagine that they are a window to an otherwise murky past: you want to know why
the coelocanth appears to live the same way for 400 MY while other organisms
diverge from their ancestors and quickly acquire new properties!

 There is presently no good answer to this question, as far as I know.  One
possibility is that a) these organisms have simply achieved a morphology that
is well suited to their lifestyle *and* b) their niche has remained stable for
long periods of time, so that there is no pressure to change.  Meanwhile, other
species diverge from the primitive type, as they a) continue to improve on
their body plan and/or b) change to keep up with the times.  There are other
possible explanations.

Arlin Stoltzfus, Department of Biochemistry, Dalhousie University

Arlin@ac.dal.ca

kliman@mbcl.rutgers.edu (06/09/91)

In article <29@tdatirv.UUCP>, sarima@tdatirv.UUCP (Stanley Friesen) writes:
> In article <471.284d6041@mbcl.rutgers.edu> kliman@mbcl.rutgers.edu writes:
>>In article <18@tdatirv.UUCP>, sarima@tdatirv.UUCP (Stanley Friesen) writes:
>>> *No* species are unchanged for this long.  NGE was wrong.
>> 
>>This is clearly a question of semantics.  As far as I know, there is no rule 
>>that phenotypic change must occur within some specified period of time (e.g., 
>>400 MY).
> 
> Perhaps so.  But there is no known living *species* that is more than a few
> million years old (certainly no more than 10 MY).  And *most* living species
> are around one million years old (or even younger).
> 
> I would require truly impressive evidence before I would accept a claim
> that a *species* was anything like 400 MY old.  Even genera almost never
> survive *that* long.  

What is the definition of species here?  Certainly bifurcations have occurred 
in the phylogenies of all extant species.  However, does this cause the
extinction of the ancestral species?  I don't think we can determine if any
extant species can produce fertile offspring in a cross with some distant
ancestor (if we use that particular definition of species), so to say that no
species is more than 10 MY old is just an assumption.  I'm not saying that
the coelocanth is morphologically identical to its ancestor 400 MY back, or
that it is even the same biological species.  However, I stick to my 
prediction that *some* species (not necessarily a chordate) has not changed
substantially for 400 MY.  That is not to say that diversification through
offshoot lineages (e.g., by "founder effect") has not occurred. 
 
>>Still, it seems to me that there must be plenty of cases out there of organisms
>>resembling, at a morphological level, their far distant ancestors; natural 
>>selection can favor ancient phenotypes if they remain superior, thereby 
>>overwhelming the force of mutation.  Why not?
 
> Quite true.  But none are so closely identical (even morphologically) as to
> be considered to be the same species.  Why this is so is, perhaps,
> a problem worth studying, but it is nonetheless true (by observation).
> 
> My guess would be that no environment has remained sufficiently unchanged
> for more than a few million years for identical phenotypes to continue
> to be advantageous.  The least changed forms I know of are probably
> crocodiles, but even they are detectably different.

What I'm saying is purely hypothetical.  I'm inclined to agree that all extant
chordates probably differ from their ancestors from 400 MY.  All I originally
wanted to convey was disagreement with a statement that I considered too
rigid.  We simply don't know what the phylogenies of all living species look 
like, and all "rules" are bound to be broken occasionally.

- Rich Kliman

squirrel@behind.caltech.edu (Patricia M. White) (06/10/91)

It seems to me that the term "primitive" is misleading to some people.
A species that is considered ancient or primitive is an animal that is
superbly adapted or adaptable. The opossum develops to adulthood quickly,
can eat anything, produces many young, but dies after three years: it
survives as a species without overpopulating its niche.  Thus the opossum
has been around for a long time.

Don't think of it as "primitive."  Think of it as doing something right.

Pat White   squirrel@above.ugcs.caltech.edu
 

mroussel@alchemy.chem.utoronto.ca (Marc Roussel) (06/11/91)

In article <676362297.46@egsgate.FidoNet.Org>
Vincent.A.Mazzarella@f98.n250.z1.FidoNet.Org (Vincent A Mazzarella) writes:
>
>
>>	This claim is frequently made about animals that physically
>>resemble ancient ancestors.  It is, of course, false. [...]
>>At the molecular level, their enzymes and DNA have diverged at the same
>>rate as "modern" animals.  If an organism is living today, it is "modern,"
>>regardless of how it looks.
>
>But, of course, genomes of every human is quite different from every other
>human.

     I don't think this is true.  Could a molecular biologist comment on
this?  I seem to remember that the amount of DNA that distinguishes you
from me (or indeed that distinguishes me from a chimpanzee) is quite
small.

>While the genome of a coelocanth has changed over the millenia, it is
>noted that the meaningful changes, those that cause phenotypic changes,
>have been few.

     How do you know?  You're not defining phenotype merely be external
morphology are you?

				Marc R. Roussel
                                mroussel@alchemy.chem.utoronto.ca

sarima@tdatirv.UUCP (Stanley Friesen) (06/12/91)

In article <472.28511bf9@mbcl.rutgers.edu> kliman@mbcl.rutgers.edu writes:
>In article <29@tdatirv.UUCP>, sarima@tdatirv.UUCP (Stanley Friesen) writes:
>> Perhaps so.  But there is no known living *species* that is more than a few
>> million years old (certainly no more than 10 MY). ...

>What is the definition of species here?  Certainly bifurcations have occurred 
>in the phylogenies of all extant species.  However, does this cause the
>extinction of the ancestral species?

Well, if you use the cladist's definition of species - YES :-|

However, that is *not* the definition I was using.

> I don't think we can determine if any
>extant species can produce fertile offspring in a cross with some distant
>ancestor (if we use that particular definition of species), so to say that no
>species is more than 10 MY old is just an assumption.

True, but that is not even sufficient evidence for living forms.  Inability
to cross-breed almost proves a species distinction, but ability to interbreed
does *not* prove that two forms are the same species.

The basic definition of species for living forms is that they do not *normally*
interbreed successfully.  This can be because they are too different in
ecology, or mating habits for the adults to ever mate in the wild; or it
could be that they are too different in lifestyle or morphology for the
offspring to survive in the wild.

With extinct forms you basicly have to *guess* whether this criterion holds.
It is, of course, not as certain as with living forms, but it appears to
work better than might be expected.  (Of course its hard to tell!)

> I'm not saying that
>the coelocanth is morphologically identical to its ancestor 400 MY back, or
>that it is even the same biological species.  However, I stick to my 
>prediction that *some* species (not necessarily a chordate) has not changed
>substantially for 400 MY.  That is not to say that diversification through
>offshoot lineages (e.g., by "founder effect") has not occurred. 

I do not believe this is likely.  I suspect that any form would have
changed enough in that amount of time that offspring would either never
occur or fail to survive.  The closest I have yet seen to this kind of
constancy in known fossils is in the genus Lingula.  (Which I had forgotten
about in my previous postings).  A case might be made here that living
Lingula is close enough in morphology to one of the Paleozoic Lingula's
to be considered the same species (but I stll doubt it - Lingula's have
changed somewhat, and the differences seem to exceed the level typical
for distinct species of brachiopods).

[P.S. this is the practical criterion for fossil species - morphological
differences exceeding typical within-species variation among living
relatives].

>> Quite true.  But none are so closely identical (even morphologically) as to
>> be considered to be the same species.  Why this is so is, perhaps,
>> a problem worth studying, but it is nonetheless true (by observation).

>What I'm saying is purely hypothetical.  I'm inclined to agree that all extant
>chordates probably differ from their ancestors from 400 MY.  All I originally
>wanted to convey was disagreement with a statement that I considered too
>rigid.  We simply don't know what the phylogenies of all living species look 
>like, and all "rules" are bound to be broken occasionally.

Hmm, well, I wouldn't exactly call it a 'rule', more like a generalization
from observation.  The longest spans known for individual morpho-species
are on the order of 10 million years, so on statistical grounds, I reject
the likelyhood of a species so *far* out on the tail of the distribution.
[Typical species last about 1 million years or so].

Certainly it is strictly speaking *possible* that a form remains so
stable in all aspects of its biology as to remain viable with its
ancestors for many milions of years, but it is *very* unlikely (P << .01).
[In math the symbol '<<' means 'much less than'].

-- 
---------------
uunet!tdatirv!sarima				(Stanley Friesen)

kliman@mbcl.rutgers.edu (06/13/91)

In article <34@tdatirv.UUCP>, sarima@tdatirv.UUCP (Stanley Friesen) writes:
> In article <472.28511bf9@mbcl.rutgers.edu> kliman@mbcl.rutgers.edu writes:
>>In article <29@tdatirv.UUCP>, sarima@tdatirv.UUCP (Stanley Friesen) writes:
  
>>What I'm saying is purely hypothetical.  I'm inclined to agree that all extant
>>chordates probably differ from their ancestors from 400 MY.  All I originally
>>wanted to convey was disagreement with a statement that I considered too
>>rigid.  We simply don't know what the phylogenies of all living species look 
>>like, and all "rules" are bound to be broken occasionally.

> Hmm, well, I wouldn't exactly call it a 'rule', more like a generalization
> from observation.  The longest spans known for individual morpho-species
> are on the order of 10 million years, so on statistical grounds, I reject
> the likelyhood of a species so *far* out on the tail of the distribution.
> [Typical species last about 1 million years or so].
> 
> Certainly it is strictly speaking *possible* that a form remains so
> stable in all aspects of its biology as to remain viable with its
> ancestors for many milions of years, but it is *very* unlikely (P << .01).
> [In math the symbol '<<' means 'much less than'].

Okay.  I was simply trying to make a point.  But let's play with the numbers.
If we assume there are only 1 million extant species, and if we make the
assumption that the likelihood of a species being 400 MY old is .000001 
(which I hope satisfies the criterion of P<<.01), then the probability
that *no* species is that old is 38%.  If there are 5 million species, the
probability becomes .7% (i.e., 99.3% probability that some species is 400 MY
old).  If we change .000001 to .00001, then the probability that 1 million
species are all recent is .0000454.  

Admittedly, I have made up these probabilities.  I don't know what the value
should actually be.  Without the frequency distribution of known species, I
can't estimate the value.  If you know of a good source, I'd like to take
a look.  

To the point: do I believe that some species is 400 MY old?  I'm not sure.
There's just not enough data to make an informed conclusion.  With all of
those plants, animals, protists, prokaryotes.... who knows.  Perhaps some
regions of the planet remain stable for eons, e.g., deep in the oceans.  
Maybe there's no stability, but particular environments move about slowly
enough for adapted species to move along with them.  How many different
extant species are there, anyway?  (Probably a lot more than 5 million).

So what if the coelocanth isn't 400 MY old.  Or any vertebrate, or any
terrestrial animal (probably). The original question posed - can a species
remain unchanged for that long - is fun to think about. I think it's possible,
but if the author of the question wanted a definitive answer, he won't get one
from this devil's advocate.

- Rich Kliman

minsky@media-lab.media.mit.edu (Marvin Minsky) (06/14/91)

kliman@mbcl.rutgers.edu remarked,

>The original question posed - can a species remain unchanged for
that long - is fun to think about.

Consider that all we know about those "living fossils" is that their
external appearance hasn't changed very grossly.  However, a good
proportion of the genome goes into the brain structure and
connections -- and we cannot see much of that.  Now it seems to me
that there is a nice opposition here: any gross skeletomuscular change
has a central nervous price, because the reflex systems and higher
level instincts need reprogramming.  (That is, to the extent that the
local learning systems cannot easily adapt.)  And conversely, the less
superficial change, the easier to evolve new behavioral adaptations.  

So, to first order, the more the Coelocanth seems the same -- outside
-- the more different it would be -- inside!

Of course, that wouldn't be true to second order.  Because new
behavioral abilities brings with it new possibilities for changing