doug@terak.UUCP (Doug Pardee) (01/04/85)
> I've seen this argument before: A *used* C-150 (or even C-172) can > easily be bought now for <$10K, and any *new* Primary Aircraft will > have to cost well over $10K, so nothing can be gained. > Isn't it obvious? A new C-152 now costs ~$30K, and a C-172 is ~$60K. The November, 1983 issue of AOPA Pilot magazine gave the price of a new C-172P as $38,450. I don't think that there have been significant price increases in the last year and a half. (Come to think of it, I don't think there's been any production, either :-) But... equipped with all of the cross-country and IFR equipment that is now considered a "must", the price of the C-172 that they tested then was $80,130. And that didn't include long-range fuel tanks nor strobes, nor fancy equipment like RNAV or LORAN-C. The problem is NOT the cost of the plane. The problem is the cost of dual nav/comms, ILS, marker beacon, ADF, DME, transponder, heated pitot, tinted glass, reclining seats, wall-to-wall carpeting, control yokes with lighted approach plate holder, and on and on. The reason that used planes are so much cheaper than new ones is that (as with cars) options depreciate far more rapidly than the basic vehicle does. > So which will cost less five years from now, a Primary Aircraft that > sold new for $15K, or a C-152 that sold new for $30K? I'd bet on the > Primary Aircraft, which should get down to $5K or so in good condition. > (And therefore open aviation up to that many more people.) This presumes that a Primary Aircraft would sell new for $15K. That is not likely. After all, the engine alone will account for about $12-18K if we assume that the airplane manufacturer's engine markup is the same as what the engine manufacturer uses for his retail markup. But much more importantly, when we add on the $30K in "must have" features to allow the plane to be used as dependable cross-country transportation, even a $15K plane will be $45K! The cost of those options will not be influenced by lowering the certification requirements. The root of the problem is the "absolute requirement" by pilots that their plane be "useful". If you're willing to accept a plane without radios, without full gyro panel, without cloth interior and wall-to- wall carpeting, you can get a C-152 at a very reasonable price now. (Remember that the engine is the #1 chunk of the price, and Cessna ain't likely to sell you a plane for less than what the engine cost.) > As for the new Primary Aircraft, i'm not sure i wouldn't rather spend > $15K on one rather than $10K on a "standard" airplane several years > old, given the high price of maintenance and the fact that things do > start to wear out on older airplanes. > First, same presumption that a $15K new plane could be made and sold profitably. But more important is the presumption that such a plane would be well built and wouldn't be a maintenance problem. Given the current experience with more expensive planes, where new planes are much more troublesome than used planes, I kinda doubt it. Doug Pardee -- Terak Corp. -- !{hao,ihnp4,decvax}!noao!terak!doug