padraig@utastro.UUCP (Padraig Houlahan) (04/06/85)
How safe is flying? I am not a pilot but am considering becoming one in about a year or so, and am curious about the degree of risk involved. I obtained the statistic that fatal accidents occur in small a/c at a rate of about 1 - 5 for every 100,000 hours. To put this in perspective I have read in a newspaper that the average motorist, in a lifetimes driving (50,000 hours) runs a 1% chance of being killed. On this basis flying is considerably safer since the average pilot flies for a shorter total amount of time. Is this conclusion reasonable? Am I overlooking anything? Padraig Houlahan.
dmmartindale@watcgl.UUCP (Dave Martindale) (04/08/85)
Another thing to keep in mind: most (small) aircraft accidents are the pilot's fault. By being careful to avoid the stupid things that kill many pilots (flying into bad weather, running out of fuel, not paying attention during landings and takeoffs, flying while drunk or in poor mental shape, etc.) you can reduce the risk markedly. Much more than you can do driving a car, where you can only do so much about avoiding the accidents that are somebody else's fault.
notes@ucf-cs.UUCP (04/13/85)
By your own figures the car fatal rate is 1% of 50,000 & hence 2% in 100,000 hours which calculates to .02 in 100,000 which suggests car driving is safer. the fallacy is that car driving averages over a far larger number of people of reasonable driving skill. The aircraft figures are for a large number of low experience and student pilots. If you follow reasonable precautions commensurate with your skills & aircraft capability & you don't get stricken with the 'why bother with the weather it looks ok and I have to be there' syndrome; the accident rate would drop 100 fold from the numbers stated. . q
doug@terak.UUCP (Doug Pardee) (04/17/85)
> which suggests car driving is safer. the fallacy is that car driving averages > over a far larger number of people of reasonable driving skill. > The aircraft figures are for a large number of low experience > and student pilots. But the low experience and student pilots have a *very* good record. It's almost always the experienced pilot who kills himself and his family. -- Doug Pardee -- Terak Corp. -- !{hao,ihnp4,decvax}!noao!terak!doug
doug@terak.UUCP (Doug Pardee) (04/19/85)
Since the FAA is kind enough to send us Arizona airmen regular summaries
of all accidents that occurred in Arizona, I went back through them
and extracted a summary of all the fatal accidents from the start of
'82 through this March.
There were 50 fatal accidents, with a total of 107 people killed. Of
the 50 accidents, 39 were in high-performance singles, twins, or
experimental aircraft. Those 39 accidents accounted for 92 of the
deaths. 2 more accidents, and 3 deaths, were in simple single-engine
planes being flown by pilots with commercial ratings. Only one student
pilot was involved in any of the fatal accidents; interestingly, he was
only slightly injured but his (illegal) passenger was killed.
I've posted the summary in a following message, so that you can see
for yourself what dumb moves people use to kill themselves in my state.
--
Doug Pardee -- Terak Corp. -- !{hao,ihnp4,decvax}!noao!terak!doug