arms-d@ucbvax.ARPA (09/14/84)
From: Moderator <ARMS-D@MIT-MC.ARPA>
Arms-Discussion Digest Volume 2 : Issue 58
Today's Topics:
GB + Argentina
British consulting US
Nuclear Winter & Crazy States (2)
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Date: 2 September 1984 01:31-EDT
From: Herb Lin <LIN @ MIT-MC>
Subject: GB + Argentina
To: CAULKINS @ USC-ECL
cc: ARMS-D @ MIT-MC
In-reply-to: Msg of 28 Aug 1984 1723-PDT from CAULKINS at USC-ECL
From: CAULKINS at USC-ECL
This gets to be pretty thin speculation, BUT it would make some sense
for a minor nuclear power like Britain to at least inform a major
nuclear ally like the US that nuclear weapons were going to be used at
a certain time and place. This would prevent the US from wrongly
interpreting the source of the nuclear strike and taking some
destabilizing counter action, and would have the secondary effect of
preventing the US from getting really pissed off as happened when the
British went off and did their own thing without consultation during
the Suez crisis of 1956.
Who else would have hit Argentina at that time? The Soviets?
Also, I found that in the next day's NY Times, two British admirals
denied even contemplating the use of nukes.
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Date: 4 Sep 84 1010 EDT (Tuesday)
From: Robert.Frederking@CMU-CS-A.ARPA (C410RF60)
To: ARMS-D@MIT-MC.ARPA
Subject: British consulting US
An obvious explanation (to me, anyhow) of a secret cable to the
British Embassy about the possible use of nuclear weapons would be that
they wanted their ambassador to know what was happening, in case something
did happen. There is no need to assume that they were thinking of telling
our government anything before the fact.
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Date: 7 September 1984 15:11-EDT
From: Oded Anoaf Feingold <OAF @ MIT-MC>
Subject: Nuclear Winter & Crazy States
To: ARMS-D @ MIT-MC
cc: Jong @HIS-PHOENIX-MULTICS.ARPA
In-reply-to: Msg of Tue 28 Aug 84 12:12 MST from Jong at
HIS-PHOENIX-MULTICS.ARPA
I don't think Israel has a doomsday weapon. Hence it has no need to
announce one. If it did, no doubt the Israelis would communicate
privately to anyone with the proverbial need to know. Any other
assumption implies that they're really nuts, and paranoid, and vicious
messianic samsoncomplexified zionazi world-destroyers. Leave that
class of speculation to others.
Congratulations to MDC.WAYNE for putting this absurd topic into the
limelight and keeping it there. It just goes to show what crap can be
dealt with seriously when it sounds close enough to real life. And we
wonder that our politicians play charades with us.
Oded
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Date: Mon, 10 Sep 84 14:32 EDT
From: MJackson.Wbst@XEROX.ARPA
Subject: Re: Nuclear Winter & Crazy States
To: Jong@HIS-PHOENIX-MULTICS.ARPA
cc: arms-d@MIT-MC.ARPA
"My limited historical reading tells me that except for the Germans,
everyone was pulled screaming into the abyss of World War I."
Rather an oversimplification, as you probably recognize, but there is
one aspect that is worth pointing out:
After Germany had begun general mobilization she received assurances
that essentially all of her demands would be met. Rightfully concerned
with launching a two-front war the Kaiser proposed halting matters at
once. (At this point the first shooting was still several days away.)
Unfortunately the operations involved in total mobilization with a
railway-based infrastructure were of necessity so carefully planned and
interconnected that it was felt that the attack could not successfully
be called off without leaving the country in chaos, hence defenseless.
So in a sense Germany was herself pulled into the abyss by the
inflexibility of her own defensive establishment.
And they didn't even have expert systems back then. . .
Mark
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[End of ARMS-D Digest]