arms-d@ucbvax.ARPA (10/14/84)
From: Moderator <ARMS-D@MIT-MC.ARPA> Arms-Discussion Digest Volume 2 : Issue 64 Today's Topics: Reliability of Nuclear Deterrent (3 msgs) Subject: Peace in 2010 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 10 October 1984 18:36-EDT From: Herb Lin <LIN @ MIT-MC> Subject: Reliability of Nuclear Deterrent To: ihnp4!utzoo!henry @ UCB-VAX cc: ARMS-D @ MIT-MC From: ihnp4!utzoo!henry at Berkeley ..the USAF has *never* successfully fired a Minuteman missile from a normal operational silo. They fire them all the time from special test silos at Vandenberg, but they had so many failures trying to test-fire from a standard silo that they gave up on it!!! Good Ghod... I used to believe this too, until it was pointed out that a successful test flight of a MM from an operational silo might well result in the filing of multi-megabuck lawsuits -- "Well, I don't know what happened -- this big thing just crashed down from the sky and hit my barn." What would you do with the first stage? This isn't to say that I believe the stories to be untrue, just that there are other good reasons for not test-firing from operational silos. ------------------------------ Date: 11 Oct 84 18:14:47 CDT (Thu) To: LIN@MIT-MC.ARPA Subject: Reliability of Nuclear Deterrent Cc: ARMS-D@MIT-MC.ARPA My point was not that they've never fired from a silo at, say, Minot; of course they can't do that. Among other reasons, the lower stages would fall on a friendly foreign country (Canada, remember?). The failed tests I referred to were at Vandenberg. The key fact is that operational silos are built differently from the test-firing silos that are in routine use at Vandenberg. They did build a standard operational-readiness silo there for final tests of the whole system; they had so many failures that they gave up. In other words, nobody has ever demonstrated that the standard operational silo design *WORKS*! ------------------------------ Date: 11 October 1984 20:26-EDT From: Herb Lin <LIN @ MIT-MC> Subject: Reliability of Nuclear Deterrent To: ihnp4!utzoo!henry @ UCB-VAX cc: ARMS-D @ MIT-MC I'm confused; the source you cited in your first msg (Fallows) doesn't address the issue at all except to say that MM has not been fired from an operational silo. Your second msg says they did build an operational silo at Vandenburg, where they tried and gave up. Please state your source for this statement. I agree with your key point: MM has not been tested from operational silos. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 11 Oct 84 10:57:14 cdt From: "Walter G. Rudd" <rudd%lsu.csnet@csnet-relay.arpa> To: ARMS-D@mit-mc.csnet Subject: Peace in 2010 The most likely scenario for peace in 2010 is that the nuclear winter will have made it impossible for anyone left (if anyone is left) to wage war. ------------------------------ [End of ARMS-D Digest]