arms-d@ucbvax.ARPA (05/15/85)
From: The Arms-D Moderator (Harold Ancell) <ARMS-D@MIT-MC.ARPA> Arms-Discussion Digest Volume 3 : Issue 31 Today's Topics: Future War Helicopter-vs-Helicopter Strategic Interests vs Popular Sympathy Reply to J.Miller: on a moral litmus test ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 13 May 85 9:01:39 EDT From: Jeff Miller AMSTE-TOI 4675 <jmiller@apg-1> Subject: Future War To: Wolf-Dieter Batz <L12%DHURZ2.BITNET@WISCVM> I'm a bit confused by your message to me concerning future war. I would suggest you might check back and see if perhaps the comments about El Salvador and Nicaragua were made by someone responding back to me. At any rate, I have not made any comment on that conflict as my professional activities have not included that area. @'m afraid that all I have on the subject is my opinion, and unlike others I hesitate to comment publicly on subjects of which I have no first-hand knowledge. J.MILLER ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 May 85 17:01:10 EST From: Herb Lin <LIN@MIT-MC> Subject: Helicopter-vs-Helicopter [From: jmiller@APG-1 - Mod.] Any (unclassified) information would be most enlightening personally, and I could probably use it here at the office. In the last few years, there have been several articles in International Defense Review on h vs h warfare (mostly harware, little doctrine). ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 13 May 85 17:06:01 EST From: Herb Lin <LIN@MIT-MC> Subject: Future Army To: jmiller@APG-1 Please tell us what "modern" includes. I have heard that the 60,000 figure for the SU includes large numbers of T-54 and similar vintage tanks -- certainly threatening to soldiers with machine guns only, but higly vulnerable to modern anti-tank weapons. ------------------------------ Date: 29 Apr 1985 14:41:19 EDT (Monday) From: Jeff Miller AMSTE-TOI 4675 <jmiller@apg-1> Subject: Strategic Interests vs Popular Sympathy Sir, With regard to your two comments; There is indeed a wind of change in South Africa. There is no question that apartheid is a reprehensible policy. There are surely men of democratic bent among Black nationalist groups. I believe you to be a bit naive in thinking they would be able to stand up to the encroachment by pro-Moscow elements in the event of establishing majority rule. Neither of us can do more than speculate on this, but the modern history of Africa supports my contention. The media may be attracted to reasonable- sounding bishops and other moderates, but power will gravitate to the ANC, much as it did to ZANU in Zimbabwe. You obviously misread my questions since you say I advocate direct US suppression of majority rule. My question is more oblique; is it smart to try to overthrow the existing government (lets take off the blinders and admit that this is the popular goal.) of a country of such dramatic strategic importance, a government that is willing to be aligned with the US, when the alternative will be a government most likely hostile to the US? Even if a mild, socialist, non-aligned state emerged, would we want this vital area to become other than solidly under western control......considering the propensity for non-aligned nations in this region to align with the USSR? I propose no concrete, well thought-out answers. I only raise the issue because I am concerned at the reluctance to discuss this region in these terms. Unfortunately for us, the modern world is too complex to judge foreign and defense policy in terms of absolute right or wrong. J.MILLER ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 29 Apr 85 12:28:05 pdt From: alice!wolit@Berkeley Subject: Strategic Interests Jeff Miller writes that US policy should favor the white minority government of South Africa because of that county's reserves of certain "strategic" minerals and its position astride a "sealane chokepoint." Given the current military postures of the US and the USSR -- giant standing armed forces, heavily dependent on existing long-range rocket, bomber, and naval units, with pre-positioned supplies -- and given the inevitably short duration of any large-scale conflict between them because of the incredible destructiveness of these weapons, it is gratuitous to speak of "strategic" minerals in the way that one could have fifty years ago. It is inconceivable that a US-USSR war could last long enough for the ore that is mined at its start to be turned into weapons that will see use before it's all over. Given a war, we will have a hard enough time moving already manufactured weapons (and troops) in time, given our meager sealift capability; we will not be wasting ships and time on dirt. More important, though, is the ridiculous attitude that we must cede a majority government in South Africa to the Soviets. Certainly, if we insist on backing the current racist government, we will have few friends in power when the majority inevitably (and properly) regains control. But it is not too late to reverse our course and back the majority. The Soviet economic system is not so attractive compared to that of the West; it is only when we drive them to it, by support of totalitarian regiemes like those of the Shah, Somosa, or Botha, that the Third World rejects us (if even then: the US is STILL the largest customer for Nicaraguan coffee). But beyond the questions of economy, the moral issue is still not just valid, but paramount. One could have made a case for a US-German alliance in 1940: the Nazis were winning, and Jeff Miller seems to imply that it's in the best interest of our people to be on the winning side. Our TRUE interests, though, include promulgation of our democractic ideals, not simply domination by military force. ------------------------------ Date: Monday, 29 April 1985 15:39:32 EDT From: Hank.Walker@cmu-cs-unh.arpa To: Jeff Miller AMSTE-TOI 4675 <jmiller@apg-1.arpa> Subject: Strategic Interests vs Popular Sympathy I didn't intend to accuse you of advocating suppression of majority rule. Many people think that if we do nothing except mildly criticize the South African government, they will continue to ignore us, regard all opposition as Commies, and wind up with a revolution and anti-US regime. The revolution may be decades off, so over the short term, doing nothing may be in the US's interest. But in the long term, we lose. Alternatively we can actively promote peaceful change. This might lead to an anti-US government, or a democratic government. The thinking is that it's better to take the risk of getting an anti-US regime now, than be sure of getting one in the future. I don't think opposition groups are overly ideological right now. However if things are allowed to degenerate to armed revolution, then extremist elements will probably take control, and moderates will become extremists. With peaceful change, the moderate majority is more likely (though not a certainty) to stay a majority. If the US helps bring about change, then any current ill feelings towards the US might dissipate. ------------------------------ From: LINCOLN HPS (on ERCC DEC-10) <L.Wallen%edxa@ucl-cs.arpa> Date: Monday, 29-Apr-85 14:32:11-GMT Subject: Reply to J.Miller: on a moral litmus test [From J. Miller Here's a thought that should engender some serious defense comment and, inevitably, emotion. I hope you do not mean to imply that the arguments of anyone expressing abhorrence at your suggestion may safely be discounted. The US depends heavily on certain strategic materials. Among these are uranium, chromium, titanium, magnesium and cobalt. The USSR has reserves of most of these. In case of war with the USSR, it would be a grave strategic vulnerability if our supplies of these minerals were not in friendly hands. Currently the chief supplier of these and other materials is South Africa. What should the US policy toward South Africa be? To me, the answer to this question is obvious: the US administration has a clear duty to its people to ensure that the people of South Africa are well-disposed towards the US. How valid is the contention that the US should only associate with regimes that pass a moral litmus test? The chance that any majority government in South Africa might be pro-Western is practically non-existent. I have the uneasy feeling that you believe this state of affairs to be "god-given". Why do you think a majority (i.e., predominantly black) government would be hostile to the west? May I suggest that it is because you implicitly recognise that from the position of a non-white South African, the western powers can only be seen to be actively supporting the regime that oppresses them. You therefore reach the conclusion that should they gain their civil rights, they will naturally be hostile to the aides of their former oppressors. But in this analysis lies the roots of your problem. If the western powers were sincere in their opposition to apartheid, and actively strove to help achieve the civil rights of the oppressed people in South Africa, why then would those people perceive the west as an enemy? Afterall, there are plently of other ex-colonies who are not anti-west. This point applies in a much wider context than South Africa.. For some reason, that for the life of me I do not understand, western governments, spearheaded by the US, remain intent on supporting the REGIMES and unrepresentative governments of third-world countries rather than the PEOPLE of those countries. Even if aid must go via the ruling group in a country it can be tied to the purchase of agricultural supplies such as tractors, construction equipment for housing etc. Why is aid not perceived as an instrument to raise the standard of living in a country -- i..e., for the PEOPLE. It is so short-sighted to prop up despotic regimes. How long will they remain in power? Far from being in the best interests of the US this sort of policy acts directly against their interests, making them seem to be against any form of popular expression. If the aim of the US is to nurture popular control of a country, supporting tyrannical regimes lays the foundations for the anti-western reaction you speak of once steps towards popular control take place. Hans J. Morgenthau said that national leaders whose pursuit of moral imperatives cause them to sacrifice their peoples' true interests are the most immoral of all men. Absolutely. How many more peoples will the US drive into the Soviet camp in the name of "defence"? Lincoln Wallen reply to : lw%edxa@ucl-cs ------------------------------ From: DIANA HPS (on ERCC DEC-10) <"[140,153]%edxa"@ucl-cs.arpa> Date: Thursday, 2-May-85 10:25:22-GMT Subject: 1) If the USA is anywhere near as prudent as the UK, it will have stockpiles of scarce materials. The UK has stocks of Uranium for 10 years. Thus trade bans by black African states would not cause much effect unless they were sustained for a long period. 2) These states depend on their exports for foreign exchange. For example, the USA currently buys oil from both Angola & Iran; Mozambique trades with South Africa. It is unlikely that they would be able to withstand a long period of withheld trade, assuming they managed to organise it in the first place. 3) The more the west refuses to help the oppressed people in these countries, the more they will dislike us. Most ex-colonial countries have not rushed into the arms of the USSR, but have accepted aid from them because they were the only ones to offer it. 4) According to a report by the UN in 1974, the USA has 50% more recoverable uranium than South Africa. It seems it is cheaper to let black workers in Namibia work unprotected in (British controlled) uranium mines, breathing Radon 222, than to mine it in the USA with its well-developed environmental lobby & reasonably resistent workforce. (People who think that nuclear power is cheap might care to reflect on this). As an aside, I know little about the structure of science research in the USSR. If most of it is administrated by the KGB, then all the soviet scientists Jeff claims are in the KGB would be quite normal. Does anyone know anything about this? Dave Berry (seismo!mcvax!ukc!kcl-cs!cstvax!db, db%cstvax@ucl-cs) ------------------------------ [End of ARMS-D Digest]