harelb@cabot.dartmouth.edu (Harel Barzilai) (06/15/91)
[Excerpted from the archived EARTH STATS file...see bottom]
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ESTIMATED LIFETIMES OF SOME GLOBAL RESOURCES
============================================
Current consumption rates 2030 Rates
Reserves Resources Reserves Resources
Aluminum 256 805 124 407
Copper 41 277 4 26
Cobalt 109 429 10 40
Molybdenum 67 256 8 33
Nickel 66 163 7 16
Platinum 225 413 21 39
Group
Coal 206 3226 29 457
Petroleum 35 83 3 7
"WORLD STOCKS of some essential raw materials will drop perilously low
if less developed countries increase their consumption to match that
of the industrialized world. Figures show reserves (quantities that
can be profitably extracted with current technology) and resources
(total quantities thought to exist). Estimates of years left until
deletion are based on current global consumption (left) or on the
assumption that in 2030 a population of 10 billion will consume at
current U.S. rates (right)"
[Of course, it is not likely that the world's population will be
consuming at the same level. So that means we'll likely have somewhat
more than 29 years of coal and 3 years of petroleum, perhaps. The
assumptions that U.S. consumption will not increase during the interim
present-2030, and that population will be only 10 billion, are perhaps
too rosy. Finally, when looking over some of the "big" numbers (how
many years we have left), I found it useful to note that Columbus
"discovered America" some 500 years ago, Jesus lived some 2,000 years
ago, and homo sapiens is supposed to have been around for some 100,000
years. --HB]
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