avslists@mercury.aichem.arizona.edu (LISTS) (06/19/91)
****************************************** News from India News Network Digest The India News Network Dige Tue, 18 Jun 91 ****************************************** Today's Topics: ****************************************** Election Results Polls in Punjab Economic Challanges for the New Government ****************************************** SOURCES: SOC.CULTURE.INDIAN and Network Member Contributions ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 17 Jun 91 20:07:12 PDT AP News Summary: NEW DELHI, Ind(AP) -- Rajiv Gandhi's Congress Party prepared on Monday to pick his successor and form a government after it captured a commanding lead in national elections. But partial returns indicated the party failed to win a parliamentary majority, so the new prime minister will likely preside over either an unstable minority government or a coalition. Party president P.V. Narasimha Rao summoned senior party leaders to his home Monday evening to draw up a plan of action, party spokesman Pranab Mukherjee said. The party should have a nominee for prime minister by the time Parliament convenes on Thursday, but Rao said a leader would not be discussed until the final election results were known. Votes were still being counted Monday night. In Punjab state, voting was delayed until June 22 so that security forces could be be deployed to protect voters from Sikh insurgents. Caretaker Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar, whose party was routed in the vote, asked President Ramaswamy Venkataraman to relieve him of his duties as soon as possible. Election analyst Prannoy Roy said the partial results indicated an upswing in support for the Congress Party in the second and third rounds of voting, which took place after voting was interrupted by Gandhi's assassination. Political leaders had predicted some sympathy votes for the party after the former prime minister was killed by a suicide bomber on May 21, the day after the multi-stage voting began. Roy said the slaying "tended to jolt the Congress supporters," increasing the turnout and thus helping the party's performance. Gandhi, whose constituency in a rural district in Uttar Pradesh state voted the day before his death, posthumously won his election. His seat will have to be filled in a by-election. Overall, computer projections showed Congress and its small-parties allies winning about 235 of the 511 contested parliament seats, about 20 seats short of a majority. By Monday night, with 362 districts declared, Congress had won 183 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party won 82 and the Janata Dal won 28. But partial results showed Congress losing heavily in the two largest states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and the other parties narrowing the gap. Roy, analyzing the vote for Indian television, said Congress appeared to be winning about 2 percent less of the popular vote, but was picking up seats because its opposition was fragmented. Under the election rules, the party with the largest number of votes wins the constituency. The Bharatiya Janata Party won about 23 percent of the popular vote, more than double its 1989 performance. Congress and its allies picked up seats in most states and swept the southern state of Tamil Nadu, where Gandhi was assassinated by a suicide bomber apparently on instructions of Tamil militants operating in Sri Lanka. The party that won the previous election and had been sympathetic to the rebels failed to win a single seat. Congress has said it was willing to consider an alliance with any party except the Bharatiya Janata Party, which campaigned on a platform of Hindu nationalism. India was governed by two minority governments after the Congress Party was ousted in 1989. Each relied on promises of support by parties that were not formally in the government and took no responsibility for its actions. President Venkataraman, whose position is ceremonial except for the influence he can wield at election time, has urged the politicians to abandon the system of supporting a government without being part of it, and to opt for full-fledged coalitions. But the Left Front, an alliance of communist and leftist parties, and the centrist Janata Dal party expressed hesitation about entering a binding coalition arrangement with Congress. "We can't join the Congress in the government. That is the present position," said Jyoti Basu, leader of the Communist Party-Marxist who won an unprecedented fourth term as head of the state government of West Bengal. "We opposed Congress and its policies. Now, in a different context, we must sit together and have discussions," Basu said in Calcutta on Indian television. Ajit Singh, whose Janata Dal party lost heavily in the election, said any approach by Congress would be judged on the merits of its policies agreed upon. "They have to decide what they are going to do, whether they want a minority government or a coalition at the center. They have to set their house in order. Then we will consider it," Singh said. The Congress Party was India's vehicle to independence from Britain in 1947 and led its governments for all but four years since then. Tainted by scandal and allegations of kickbacks on defense contracts, it lost power in 1989 when all the opposition parties united against it, agreeing not to compete against each other. News Summary: By DEEPAK SHARMA Associated Press Writer LUDHIANA, India -- Army units swept across Punjab state today to try to halt further election-related violence by Sikh militants, who massacred scores of people in weekend attacks on two trains. Police said 126 people, mainly Hindus, were slain in the Saturday attacks, the militants' deadliest strikes in their 9-year-old insurgency. Officials said the attacks pushed the death toll of the Sikhs' secessionist campaign above 2,000 this year. Militant Sikhs, who seek independence for the northern Punjab state, have vowed to stop elections scheduled for Saturday. The militants have killed at least 21 candidates for Punjab's state and national elections. The rest of India completed balloting Saturday, but Punjab elections were delayed until security forces could be brought to the northern state to supervise voting. The army was given sweeping powers to search and arrest in the days before the voting. The deputy comissioner of this mainly Hindu industrial town, Surjit Singh Channi, said Sunday rescue officials counted 80 bodies from the train attacks, but the local police chief said at least 126 people were killed. Local reporters also said the death toll was much higher than 80. The attacks occurred within 10 minutes of each other on different railroad lines leading into this industrial town, Police Superintendent Anil Sharma said. At least one of the cars attacked was headed to a major Hindu pilgrimage center. About a dozen militants then entered the cars and killed the passengers in a blaze of automatic gunfire. The first attack occurred when the train was seven miles southwest of Ludhiana. The second train was raided when it was nine miles south of the city. "The militants positioned themselves on the two doors of the coaches and fired indiscriminately," Sharma said. The militants separated the men from the women and children and gunned down the huddled men, survivors said. But the victims included some women and children, Sharma said. At least 78 passengers were killed on the first train and 48 people on the second train, Sharma said. Forty-eight people were wounded. "My grandson tried to run toward the door. He was killed by the militants. They also killed my two sons," said Kumari Darshna, a 70-year-old Hindu woman. A reporter for Press Trust of India news agency said he saw bodies of four people lying in a blood-soaked coach with bread clutched in their hands. "Their end came while they were having dinner. Compartments were littered with torn clothes, shoes, sandals and food," the reporter said. He said many bodies were found in the fields along the tracks, indicating passengers were shot while fleeing. He said the militants escaped through the fields under cover of darkness. Police claimed to have killed at least 900 militants in the year. Sikhs comprise 2 percent of India's 844 million people, but they are in a majority in Punjab, a rich farming state. Sikh militants claim their community is discriminated against by the Hindus, who represent 82 percent of the country's people. In September 1988, militants attacked a train near the city of Amritsar and killed 10 people. Attacks on buses in Punjab had been fairly common until authorities began posting armed security guards on all buses in the state. UPn 06/17 0415 Congress Party poised to form next Indian government UPI News Summary By DAVID ALEXANDER NEW DELHI, India -- The Congress (I) Party, led by former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi until his assassination last month, appeared poised Monday to form the next government with outside support as vote counting continued in the nation's parliamentary elections. With results announced in 239 races and trends established in another 173, the Congress (I) Party was expected to win the largest number of seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament, but fall short of an absolute majority. Analysts predicted President R. Venkataraman would ask Congress to form the next government. To gain support of a majority of the house, the Congress was expected to seek coalition partners among the leftists, communists and independents. Of the 239 races already decided, the Congress (I) Party won 136 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party won 60, the National Front 20 and the Left Front 15. Other regional parties and independent candidates won the remaining seats. State-run television projected Congress and its allies would win at least 225 seats in the Lok Sabha. The television forecast the BJP would win 120 seats, the National Front 80 to 90 and communist parties 50. The results would be a crushing defeat for the National Front coalition, led by the Janata Dal Party of former Prime Minister V.P. Singh. The National Front, which controlled 191 seats in the previous Parliament, had been expected to win about 120 seats. Party officials attributed the results to a sympathy vote for Congress following Gandhi's assassination. Party spokesman Jaipal Reddy told the Times of India newspaper that while the percentage shift toward Congress was slight, it had a major effect in terms of the number of seats won or lost in Parliament. The spokesman, whose party ran on a platform of providing social justice to India's lower castes, ruled out any participation in a coalition government led by the Congress (I) Party. "We will sit in the opposition, whatever happens with the Congress . .. We have our programmatic differences with the Congress," Reddy said. "Our principle fight for social justice cannot be a one-time or a one- election event." Despite Reddy's claim, officials of the major parties told Indian television they believed the next government would be a coalition between the Congress and either the communists or the National Front. Following the most violent elections in India's parliamentary history, with nearly 280 killed and Gandhi assassinated, most political parties are concerned about forming a stable government and avoiding a return to the polls. The leftists, communists and Congress are strongly opposed to the communal tone taken by the Bharatiya Janata Party during the election campaign. The BJP's main campaign issue was its fight to build a temple to the Hindu diety Ram on the site of an ancient mosque. Some Hindus believe the 16th century Muslim conquerer Babar destroyed a temple on the site of Ram's birthplace in order to construct the mosque. There is no solid archaeological or literary evidence to support the claim. The strong showing by the BJP is likely to create pressure for the leftists or communists to mend ties to the Congress and create an anti- BJP front. One communist official said his party would support a Congress government from outside to avoid new elections. The right-wing BJP appeared to be the biggest winners in the elections, gaining about 40 seats more than it controlled in Parliament following the 1989 elections. Party leader L.K. Advani said the results were "a step forward" from the BJP's previous two electoral outings. "I do not think the BJP will form the government at the center. In fact, I never thought so during the campaigning for the election," he told the Times of India. "The goal of the party can best be described as from two seats, to 86 seats, to strength, to majority." ------------------------------ 06/14 1020 TOUGH ECONOMIC DECISIONS AWAIT NEW INDIAN GOVERNMENT DPA News Summary NEW DELHI (JUNE 14) DPA - Tough decisions await the new Indian government as it assumes office, even as pollsters predict a hung parliament which may see a realignment of politics. The emerging political scenario is gloomy, with mounting economic problems calling for tough decisions that can no longer tolerate any soft options. The economy is buffeted by a balance of payment crisis, large fiscal deficits, double digit inflation and a lowering of New Delhi's international credit rating. "There is no doubt they're in a severe pinch, but they reckon they can just about squeeze by" according to an official attending last week's Bank for International Settlements meeting in Basle. Desperate for cash, New Delhi recently sold nearly 20 tons of gold confiscated from smugglers for paying the interest on foreign loans. Former Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee says India has no option other than to ask for a loan from the International Monetary Fund and other sources, "and having to accept the conditions imposed". As if on cue came a report from Washington quoting World Bank Vice-President for Asia Aila Karaosmananoglu as saying India's long-term economic problem can be met only by more outward-looking and market-oriented policies. He said China, which was more outward and market-oriented than India, had a higher rate of growth, export performance and agricultural production. India hopes to borrow two billion dollars from the IMF, which in January already lent New Delhi 1.8 billion dollars to shore up its foreign exchange reserves. Foreign investment in India during the calender year 1990 fell by nearly 60 percent, according to official figures. It has been computed that the total direct foreign investment approved by the govenment last year stood at 66 million dollars, while that approved in 1989 totalled 166 million dollars. In 1988 the approvals totalled 125 million dollars. New Delhi last week announced more steps to conserve depleted foreign exchange reserves by tightening the screws on imports and to penalize exporters stashing away their hard currency overseas. The government said henceforth replenishment licences, which entail exporters claiming a limited portion of their earnings as free foreign exchange, will be issued only if their bankers certify that the export earnings have been realized. The New York-based Standard and Poor (S&P) last month downgraded India's ratings further threatening the possibility of getting loans from bilateral and multilateral lending agencies. India joins Venezuela in trailing at the lowest end of the 35 countries given credit ratings by the S&P whose ratings are considered global benchmarks of credit quality. But the World Bank and the IMF have said they would continue to work with the Indian government on a program of corrective policies aimed at strengthening the Indian economy. The S&P said the assassination of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi last month compounded the electoral uncertainties, with slim prospects of a majority government. Another leading U.S. security firm, Merrill Lynch, says India's economic growth will depend on political developments in the coming months and the policy directions of the new government. It says without further economic liberalization, New Delhi may find that external assistance is simply not forthcoming. While the trade deficit may stabilize in 1991-92 with the sharp cutback in imports, this may ultimately cut industrial growth to barely three percent. The rupee has depreciated by about 15 percent since the start of 1991 against the U.S. dollar and could fall by 22 to 25 percent this year. India's real GDP is estimated to have fallen from five percent in 1989 to 3.9 percent in 1990 and may further go down to a range of three to 3.5 percent in 1991 before recovering to between four and 4.5 percent next year, the New York-based firm said. In an significant development, Indian industrialists - known to cry wolf and always asking more from the government as a matter of posturing - have rallied and declared there is nothing wrong intrinsically with the economy. Avijit Mazumdar, president of the Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry terms as "unwarranted" fears that the Indian economy is in a tailspin because of political uncertainties. He says despite the surface strains and stresses, the economy would register a growth rate of five percent during the current year. End of news ============