rick@cs.arizona.edu (Rick Schlichting) (02/26/91)
[Dr. David Kahaner is a numerical analyst visiting Japan for two-years under the auspices of the Office of Naval Research-Asia (ONR/Asia). The following is the professional opinion of David Kahaner and in no way has the blessing of the US Government or any agency of it. All information is dated and of limited life time. This disclaimer should be noted on ANY attribution.] [Copies of previous reports written by Kahaner can be obtained from host cs.arizona.edu using anonymous FTP.] To: Distribution From: David K. Kahaner ONR Asia [kahaner@xroads.cc.u-tokyo.ac.jp] Re: Japanese Survey of Outlook for Electronics Technology 22 Feb 1991 ABSTRACT. Summary information from a survey (by Tokyo Denshi Kogyo) of the outlook for nine areas of electronics technology is presented. In July 1990, Tokyo Denshi Kogyo, a large Japanese electronics parts company conducted a survey dealing with the future of various electronics areas. The results were published in their journal [Vol 32 No 7, Jul 90 pp36-49] They chose nine different topics. Electronic parts and materials Measurement technology Computer and networking software Production (factory) systems Office automation Home systems Traffic and transportation systems Medical electronics Energy Between 100 and 200 people responded to each question. The survey also tabulated the expertise of the respondents for each topic which seemed fairly high. Here we present a summary of their results in an abbreviated outline form. ELECTRONIC PARTS AND MATERIALS. Semiconductor devices converged and limits of semiconductor technology almost in view. Rapid progress recently in optoelectronics technology. Surprising developments possible in post-silicon technology. Image Sensors. High definition visible-light realization (3K x 3K pixels, 300MHz) widespread by 2001. Similarly for thermal image sensors. Logic & Memory Devices. Silicon will play main role. High-speed, 100,000gates, 1pico-sec/gate in 2002, 1Gbit memory 20ns access in 2004. Still problems with GaAs costs. GaAs SRAM 1Mbit 100pico-sec widespread in 2005. Josephson has problems with cooling and packaging, not expected in widespread use until 2010. Quantum-effect devices barely serious yet, but maybe a q-e device enabling lap-top supercomputer available by 2013. Optical logic devices require fundamental examination, not simply extension of silicon to improve switching speed. Biomolecular devices have many basic questions, realization about 2010. Large-capacity memory. Optical disks will become more popular. By 2003 expect to see wide use of optical-erasable disk with 10Gbyte capacity, 10millisec access time and 100Mbyte/sec transfer rate. By 2015 molecular memory in wide use, perhaps via photochemical hole burning. I/O devices. LCD mainstream displays. By 2002 wide usage of full color 2K x 2K A3-size with response time below 1-millisec. Inkjet printers are back in style and inkline printers in a few years. Some futuristic I/O device which is light, full color, high resolution, ultrathin widespread by 2010. Optical transmission. By 2000 semiconductor laser with 100Gbit/sec speed. Optical switching using semiconductor matrix switching or q-e will appear. Wavelength-splitting switch with 100 channels in 10-15 years. Optical fibers in wide use by 2005 that can transmit 1Km at 100Gbit/sec without any relay. Quantum communications fertile for basic research, perhaps useful in 20 years. Secondary batteries. Li with energy density of 1K watt-hours early next century. Micromachines. Many problems (friction, material/energy resources, packaging, CAD). A dream of the 21st century. Design and synthesis of materials. Widespread use of computer simulations by 2010, but requires faster supercomputers, say 10**10 [sic] faster than currently available. MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGY A/D conversion and optoelectronics have clear goals and can be extrapolated from current status. SQUID CT developing for medical applications and will merge with hightemp superconductivity. High expectations for STM in measuring and analyzing ultrafine patterns. Gravitational wave, astronomical, olfactory measurements won't progress too rapidly due to lack of large-scale industries. Order-of-magnitude improvement in high-speed time measurement and short pulses by 2005. Optical network analyzer widely available by 2005. Stability of 1:10**18 by 2000 in atomic frequency standard. A/D converter with 20G samples/sec by 1995-6. Horizontal resolution of 10pico-m and vertical resolution of 1pico-m via STM by 2003. COMPUTERS AND NETWORKING SOFTWARE Trends: (1) move toward ultralarge capacity, ultrahigh density and speed, (2) advanced man/machine interface, (3) more intelligence. Data I/O. Character and voice recognition moving forward (latter is slower--real progress only by 1998). Input of color and output of Japanese into natural voice by 1995. Computers. 100GFlops by 2000. Highly distributed processing by 2000, but fault tolerant systems a few years later because of software. Neuro- computers widespread by 2005 with problems of security not being solved until 2010. Communication software not widespread until 2010 because of business and international pressures. Multimedia user interfaces in demand. Automated software development still thrashing. Expert systems that are as good as experts in wide use by 2008. Don't expect natural language processing to be widespread until 2010. Intelligent interactive search systems that can easily find information without expert user knowledge by 2004. 100/Gbit/sec optical communications by 2000. Difficulties (nontechnical) for exchange/sharing of electronic documents between different types of computers. By 2000 portable telephone smaller than 50cc. Problems are associated with small high capacity batteries. PRODUCTION SYSTEMS Japan industrial structure changing into multiple levels. In particular a shift into tertiary sector centered around service expected to continue. Economic/social conditions moving from quantitative expansion to qualitative improvements. Market needs will force manufacturing industries to change from large quantities of a few products to variable quantities of different products. Manpower/labor shortage already appearing. Noticeable trend among science/engineering to stay away from manufacturing. Urgent need to streamline facilities using mechatronics (computers), and to shift from streamlining individual facilities to entire manufacturing systems. Focus of business must be shifted from "things" to "information". Specs/quantities of products will become individualized. So production systems (PS) should be able to provide products based on unique ideas. PS must freely multiply/shrink and maybe change its function. Also quick delivery after order receipt needed. Distributed databases that are immediately updatable needed. PS with high fault-tolerance and automated functions (monitoring, malfunction diagnosis, restoration) needed to carry out unmanned operations. PS need to be flexible to minimize remodeling expenses, remodeling time, and chances of systems becoming obsolete as a result of product/model/schedule changes. Intelligent human interface support systems needed. Most important tasks: product design systems (CAE/CAD/CAM), production process design systems (computer assembly to manage CAD/CAM). High demand for advanced supervisory systems. Automated restoration systems rated lower. Immediate goals are in mechanical systems for diagnostic support. Automating visual observations and other sensing tests rated higher by manufacturers than by users and are expected by 1995-98. Design operations need to be standardized. Development of a comprehensive CAD/CAM/CAE system by 2000-2005. Production engineer know-how to be transformed into databases. Widespread use by 2000. Production management systems developed early but will be affected by development of databases and expert systems. Automated assembly system to copy an engine by 1995-98. Intelligent robots face problems in building robots and interfacing with peripherals. Developments in AI such as 3D recognition, neural/fuzzy systems expected by 1995-2000. OFFICE SYSTEMS Movement from individual to multiple office equipment, using unified information source and eventually to consolidated system using using global multimedia data. Important task is development of natural man- machine interface. Component technologies needed are data I/O, data storage/search, computing (crunching), communications. Business use of distributed databases is most important topic. Widespread use by 2000. This also implies high-speed/low cost communication and low database use fees. Many comments emphasizing importance of standardized database format and protection problems. Widespread use of multimedia databases by 2001. HOME SYSTEMS PCs, fax, multifunction phones already infiltrated homes. Many services connecting home systems and social systems will be developed. Primary technologies needed are AI to organize systems, transmission, display and sensing technology. Advanced cogeneration and air conditioning in demand. Reliable application software that is easy to use need to be developed. Systems ready for applications: home shopping, security by protection agencies, but not widely accepted due to cost, safety, software. Home robots and home energy management still require significant technical advances. TRAFFIC/TRANSPORTATION Improved safety of traffic/transportation most important need. Rail: Seat reservation, individual guide and conducting services by 2003 using IC cards. Advanced security and automated control systems will make trains run faster/more frequent. (The Japanese are planning a new high speed rail link between Tokyo and Osaka. French trains may reach greater speed, but the plan here is to run 100 10-car trains a day each carrying about 1,000 people.) Air: High-speed data ring between aircraft, control center, other aircraft to monitor/guide will be in wide use by 2005. Backup functions and emergency systems must work under abnormal conditions. Auto: Graphic image processing sensors, car detection sensors will be improved. Intelligent judgements about traffic congestion to predict traffic flow will be in wide use by 2002. More navigation systems in cars. Dynamic navigation systems widespread by 2004. MEDICAL ELECTRONICS Fantastic progress already. Expect work on remote diagnosis via graphic images in at-home care systems. Mental health problems will become more important. Health consulting system and health management system for unexpected disorders (at home) widespread by 2000-2005. Widespread use of mental health care system by 2015 (importance was rated as low). Speech impediment assistance system by 2000 but not in wide use until 2015. Prospects for a nerve damage compensation system were pessimistic. ENERGY (ELECTRIC POWER) Stable power supply, consolidated energy system (large scale concentrated facilities and medium/small scale distributed facilities) in widespread use by 2004. -------------------------END OF REPORT-----------------------------------