rick@cs.arizona.edu (Rick Schlichting) (02/26/91)
[Dr. David Kahaner is a numerical analyst visiting Japan for two-years
under the auspices of the Office of Naval Research-Asia (ONR/Asia).
The following is the professional opinion of David Kahaner and in no
way has the blessing of the US Government or any agency of it. All
information is dated and of limited life time. This disclaimer should
be noted on ANY attribution.]
[Copies of previous reports written by Kahaner can be obtained from
host cs.arizona.edu using anonymous FTP.]
To: Distribution
From: David K. Kahaner ONR Asia [kahaner@xroads.cc.u-tokyo.ac.jp]
Re: Japanese Survey of Outlook for Electronics Technology
22 Feb 1991
ABSTRACT. Summary information from a survey (by Tokyo Denshi Kogyo)
of the outlook for nine areas of electronics technology is presented.
In July 1990, Tokyo Denshi Kogyo, a large Japanese electronics parts
company conducted a survey dealing with the future of various electronics
areas. The results were published in their journal [Vol 32 No 7, Jul 90
pp36-49] They chose nine different topics.
Electronic parts and materials
Measurement technology
Computer and networking software
Production (factory) systems
Office automation
Home systems
Traffic and transportation systems
Medical electronics
Energy
Between 100 and 200 people responded to each question. The survey also
tabulated the expertise of the respondents for each topic which seemed
fairly high. Here we present a summary of their results in an
abbreviated outline form.
ELECTRONIC PARTS AND MATERIALS.
Semiconductor devices converged and limits of semiconductor technology
almost in view.
Rapid progress recently in optoelectronics technology.
Surprising developments possible in post-silicon technology.
Image Sensors. High definition visible-light realization (3K x 3K pixels,
300MHz) widespread by 2001. Similarly for thermal image sensors.
Logic & Memory Devices. Silicon will play main role. High-speed,
100,000gates, 1pico-sec/gate in 2002, 1Gbit memory 20ns access in 2004.
Still problems with GaAs costs. GaAs SRAM 1Mbit 100pico-sec widespread in
2005. Josephson has problems with cooling and packaging, not expected in
widespread use until 2010. Quantum-effect devices barely serious yet, but
maybe a q-e device enabling lap-top supercomputer available by 2013.
Optical logic devices require fundamental examination, not simply
extension of silicon to improve switching speed. Biomolecular devices
have many basic questions, realization about 2010.
Large-capacity memory. Optical disks will become more popular. By 2003
expect to see wide use of optical-erasable disk with 10Gbyte capacity,
10millisec access time and 100Mbyte/sec transfer rate. By 2015 molecular
memory in wide use, perhaps via photochemical hole burning.
I/O devices. LCD mainstream displays. By 2002 wide usage of full color 2K
x 2K A3-size with response time below 1-millisec. Inkjet printers are
back in style and inkline printers in a few years. Some futuristic I/O
device which is light, full color, high resolution, ultrathin widespread
by 2010.
Optical transmission. By 2000 semiconductor laser with 100Gbit/sec speed.
Optical switching using semiconductor matrix switching or q-e will
appear. Wavelength-splitting switch with 100 channels in 10-15 years.
Optical fibers in wide use by 2005 that can transmit 1Km at 100Gbit/sec
without any relay. Quantum communications fertile for basic research,
perhaps useful in 20 years.
Secondary batteries. Li with energy density of 1K watt-hours early next
century.
Micromachines. Many problems (friction, material/energy resources,
packaging, CAD). A dream of the 21st century.
Design and synthesis of materials. Widespread use of computer simulations
by 2010, but requires faster supercomputers, say 10**10 [sic] faster than
currently available.
MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGY
A/D conversion and optoelectronics have clear goals and can be
extrapolated from current status. SQUID CT developing for medical
applications and will merge with hightemp superconductivity. High
expectations for STM in measuring and analyzing ultrafine patterns.
Gravitational wave, astronomical, olfactory measurements won't progress
too rapidly due to lack of large-scale industries.
Order-of-magnitude improvement in high-speed time measurement and short
pulses by 2005. Optical network analyzer widely available by 2005.
Stability of 1:10**18 by 2000 in atomic frequency standard. A/D converter
with 20G samples/sec by 1995-6. Horizontal resolution of 10pico-m and
vertical resolution of 1pico-m via STM by 2003.
COMPUTERS AND NETWORKING SOFTWARE
Trends: (1) move toward ultralarge capacity, ultrahigh density and speed,
(2) advanced man/machine interface, (3) more intelligence.
Data I/O. Character and voice recognition moving forward (latter is
slower--real progress only by 1998). Input of color and output of
Japanese into natural voice by 1995.
Computers. 100GFlops by 2000. Highly distributed processing by 2000, but
fault tolerant systems a few years later because of software. Neuro-
computers widespread by 2005 with problems of security not being solved
until 2010. Communication software not widespread until 2010 because of
business and international pressures. Multimedia user interfaces in
demand. Automated software development still thrashing. Expert systems
that are as good as experts in wide use by 2008. Don't expect natural
language processing to be widespread until 2010. Intelligent interactive
search systems that can easily find information without expert user
knowledge by 2004. 100/Gbit/sec optical communications by 2000.
Difficulties (nontechnical) for exchange/sharing of electronic documents
between different types of computers. By 2000 portable telephone smaller
than 50cc. Problems are associated with small high capacity batteries.
PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
Japan industrial structure changing into multiple levels. In particular a
shift into tertiary sector centered around service expected to continue.
Economic/social conditions moving from quantitative expansion to
qualitative improvements. Market needs will force manufacturing
industries to change from large quantities of a few products to variable
quantities of different products. Manpower/labor shortage already
appearing. Noticeable trend among science/engineering to stay away from
manufacturing. Urgent need to streamline facilities using mechatronics
(computers), and to shift from streamlining individual facilities to
entire manufacturing systems. Focus of business must be shifted from
"things" to "information".
Specs/quantities of products will become individualized. So production
systems (PS) should be able to provide products based on unique ideas. PS
must freely multiply/shrink and maybe change its function. Also quick
delivery after order receipt needed. Distributed databases that are
immediately updatable needed. PS with high fault-tolerance and automated
functions (monitoring, malfunction diagnosis, restoration) needed to
carry out unmanned operations. PS need to be flexible to minimize
remodeling expenses, remodeling time, and chances of systems becoming
obsolete as a result of product/model/schedule changes. Intelligent human
interface support systems needed.
Most important tasks: product design systems (CAE/CAD/CAM), production
process design systems (computer assembly to manage CAD/CAM). High demand
for advanced supervisory systems. Automated restoration systems rated
lower. Immediate goals are in mechanical systems for diagnostic support.
Automating visual observations and other sensing tests rated higher by
manufacturers than by users and are expected by 1995-98.
Design operations need to be standardized. Development of a comprehensive
CAD/CAM/CAE system by 2000-2005.
Production engineer know-how to be transformed into databases. Widespread
use by 2000. Production management systems developed early but will be
affected by development of databases and expert systems.
Automated assembly system to copy an engine by 1995-98.
Intelligent robots face problems in building robots and interfacing with
peripherals. Developments in AI such as 3D recognition, neural/fuzzy
systems expected by 1995-2000.
OFFICE SYSTEMS
Movement from individual to multiple office equipment, using unified
information source and eventually to consolidated system using using
global multimedia data. Important task is development of natural man-
machine interface. Component technologies needed are data I/O, data
storage/search, computing (crunching), communications.
Business use of distributed databases is most important topic. Widespread
use by 2000. This also implies high-speed/low cost communication and low
database use fees. Many comments emphasizing importance of standardized
database format and protection problems. Widespread use of multimedia
databases by 2001.
HOME SYSTEMS
PCs, fax, multifunction phones already infiltrated homes. Many services
connecting home systems and social systems will be developed. Primary
technologies needed are AI to organize systems, transmission, display and
sensing technology. Advanced cogeneration and air conditioning in demand.
Reliable application software that is easy to use need to be developed.
Systems ready for applications: home shopping, security by protection
agencies, but not widely accepted due to cost, safety, software. Home
robots and home energy management still require significant technical
advances.
TRAFFIC/TRANSPORTATION
Improved safety of traffic/transportation most important need.
Rail: Seat reservation, individual guide and conducting services by 2003
using IC cards. Advanced security and automated control systems will make
trains run faster/more frequent. (The Japanese are planning a new high
speed rail link between Tokyo and Osaka. French trains may reach greater
speed, but the plan here is to run 100 10-car trains a day each carrying
about 1,000 people.)
Air: High-speed data ring between aircraft, control center, other
aircraft to monitor/guide will be in wide use by 2005. Backup functions
and emergency systems must work under abnormal conditions.
Auto: Graphic image processing sensors, car detection sensors will be
improved. Intelligent judgements about traffic congestion to predict
traffic flow will be in wide use by 2002. More navigation systems in
cars. Dynamic navigation systems widespread by 2004.
MEDICAL ELECTRONICS
Fantastic progress already. Expect work on remote diagnosis via graphic
images in at-home care systems. Mental health problems will become more
important. Health consulting system and health management system for
unexpected disorders (at home) widespread by 2000-2005. Widespread use of
mental health care system by 2015 (importance was rated as low). Speech
impediment assistance system by 2000 but not in wide use until 2015.
Prospects for a nerve damage compensation system were pessimistic.
ENERGY (ELECTRIC POWER)
Stable power supply, consolidated energy system (large scale concentrated
facilities and medium/small scale distributed facilities) in widespread
use by 2004.
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