rick@cs.arizona.edu (Rick Schlichting) (02/28/91)
[Dr. David Kahaner is a numerical analyst visiting Japan for two-years
under the auspices of the Office of Naval Research-Asia (ONR/Asia).
The following is the professional opinion of David Kahaner and in no
way has the blessing of the US Government or any agency of it. All
information is dated and of limited life time. This disclaimer should
be noted on ANY attribution.]
[Copies of previous reports written by Kahaner can be obtained from
host cs.arizona.edu using anonymous FTP.]
To: Distribution
From: David K. Kahaner ONR Asia [kahaner@xroads.cc.u-tokyo.ac.jp]
Re: Robots and use in Japanese Industry
28 Feb 1991
ABSTRACT. Overview of trends in robot manufacturing, use, and sales in
Japan.
SUMMARY.
Japanese robot production in 1990 is up 19% (to $3.6billion US) from
1989. Major reasons are a Japanese labor shortage, strong investment by
industry, and policies by the Japanese government. Wider robot use is
expected in non-manufacturing industries such as nuclear and
construction.
DETAILS.
The key to future Japanese manufacturing success is to move from
production of a large number of the same items (a few large assembly
lines) to production of many smaller lots of different items (many small
assembly lines, customized assembly, flexible manufacturing). Mass
production of large-lot items will move to less labor-expensive countries.
If assembly line and other production operations can be changed rapidly
and inexpensively by using highly automated and intelligent techniques,
it will be possible to produce customized lots economically. Robots are
an important part of this strategy. Robots differ from conventional
automated machines in their flexibility, and include functions such as
locomotion, mobility, grasping, recognition, etc. Prototype robots were
developed in the US in the late '50s, and in Japan in the '60s. The Japan
Industrial Robot Association (JIRA) was established in 1972 to aid in
robot diffusion into industry. Various Japanese government policies
have also aided this diffusion, including special leasing arrangements,
depreciation system, tax breaks, loans, and grants.
Since 1978 Japanese industrial robot production has grown from
$140million US to over $3.6billion US in 1990, more than twenty-fold.
Exports of industrial robots have gone from essentially zero in 1978 to
about $800million US in 1990, about 20% of total production. The largest
producers of industrial robots (1989) are
Matsushita Electric Industry (MEI) 16.5%
Fuji Machine Manufacturing 8.3
Fanuc 5.4
Yasakawa Electric Manufacturing 5.3
Kawasaki Heavy Industries 3.4
accounting for about 40% of all production.
At present almost all industrial robots are used in manufacturing. About
half of all shipped robots are for automotive or electrical machinery
production. The first major robot user was the automotive industry, for
painting, welding, and loading, but this industry now absorbs about 20%
of robot production. Honda's #3 Suzuka line is 2600 feet long, compared
to Detroit's average of 7600 feet. This is a crucial item in Japan,
but in any case shorter production lines mean less capital is required
for new buildings, and old facilities can support higher production.
Nissan is introducing the Intelligent Body Assembly System (IBAS),
which combines 51 computer controlled sensors, jigs and welding robots
in a single unit. It produces 8 different models on the main line
without any retooling and produces a partially assembled car every 45
seconds. Honda can produce 4 models on one line, something the US still
cannot do.
The electrical machinery industry now absorbs about 35% of robot
production. Robots are essential for use in dust-free (clean room)
environments, and for small volume flexible manufacturing systems such as
needed for video cameras, PCs, etc.
The key driving force for robot use however, is Japan's labor shortage
and aging work force; in 1990 about 9% of Japanese workers are over 65,
by 2000 it will be over 15%. Fewer Japanese are interested in
manufacturing careers. Labor unions have seen robots as eliminating
dangerous jobs and displaced workers are usually moved to other positions
within large integrated Japanese companies. Finally, labor costs in Japan
are very high, about 5% more than in the US and over 50% higher than in
England.
About half of Japanese manufacturing companies have invested this year in
facilities and equipment to improve efficiency, specifically robotization
and automated manufacturing systems. This was one of the leading methods
cited for coping with labor shortages, and the method claimed to be most
effective. Interestingly, investments that cut labor costs were
essentially flat from 1984-1987, but then rose about 20% in each of 1988
and 1989. R&D investments also increased about 20% in each of these two
years.
[This is very high compared to more general industry. For example, a
survey of 16,000 corporations, universities, and research institutes
showed that R&D investment increased 11% in 1989. Hitachi devotes 15% of
sales to R&D. Any way you slice it, R&D investment in Japan is large,
estimated about 3% of GNP in 1989, now surpassing that of Europe and on a
per capita basis it is almost as much as the US.]
All Japanese robot producers are expanding capacity. Fanuc will triple
its capacity when its Oshiwo plant opens, Toshiba will increase
production by 20%, Yasakawa Electric Manufacturing is building a new
$20million US plant, Nachi-fujikoshi will increase automotive robot
assembly 40%, etc. JIRA has made the following estimates for robot
production.
1991 $4.3billion US
1995 6.5
2000 11.9
They also predict that wide use of robot technology is expected in
Nuclear safeguards
Medical assistants for bedridden and handicapped
Ocean exploitation, handling, machining, surveys
Agriculture and forestry, fruit harvesting, crop dusting,
lumbering
Construction, assembly of reinforcing bars, bridge painting,
finish work in high-rise buildings
Metal and coal mining
Transportation
GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS. Three that deserve attention
1. Robots in extreme-environments, will end 3/91, focused on robot use in
nuclear power plants, ocean, disaster, petroleum. ($145million US).
2. Micromachine technology, 1991-2001 ($181million US) to develop
microtechnologies for medical and industrial applications. Just
beginning.
3. Intelligent Manufacturing Systems (IMS), computer integrated
manufacturing, standards, etc. Just beginning.
COMMENT.
Robots are going to be an important component of Japan's technology
exports. These have already jumped 33% (to $2.5billion US) between 1988-
1989, and are now almost equal to technology imports. (Exports are to the
US, Korea, China, technology imports are primarily from the US and
Europe.) Technology exports to Asia are about 40% of the total.
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