ad7i (11/08/82)
qst de ad7i hr propagation foecast bulletin nr 44 from arrl headquarters newington ct november 1, 1982 to all radio amateurs bt october provided interesting examples of the range of solar activity nearly three years after the statistical peak of cycle 21. the solar flux averaged 159, with highs of 218 on the 2nd and 202 on the 25th. from october 7 to 19, the variation was slight, between 131 and 145. the last half of the month brought a gradual rise from 131 to 202, and a slide back to 168 at the months end. despite several disturbed periods of one to three days duration, propagation was good more often than not, which is normal for october and november in the northern hemisphere. scattered through october were at least six good to excellent days when all amateur dx frequencies worked well over most of the world. about as many more days could be termed average. the 28 mhz band performed well much of the time. there were several openings on 50 mhz, mainly in the lower latitudes or on transequatorial circuits. november should be quite similar. on the down side of the solar cycle, active areas of the sun tend to be short lived, and propagation variations are less likely to recur at four week intervals. as an example, solar flux highs in october were 23 days apart, not 27 or 28. based on daily observation of the sun and frequent checks on amateur band conditions, we look for generally good propagation november 1 and 2 and 6 through 9, but with the solar flux too low for appreciable east west dx on 50 mhz. the best propagation in late november should come between the 18th and 25th, with the highest muf at the end of this period. american sunspot numbers for october 21 through 27 were between 105 and 186, for a mean of 143. they will be lower next week ar