ad7i (12/21/82)
qst de ad7i hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 51 from arrl headquarters newington ct december 19, 1982 to all radio amateurs bt the solar flux went above 200 december 4, reached 279 six days later, and then dropped sharply to 179 on the 19th. because of many solar flares, at least two of nearly record intensity, the period of high flux was rather disapointing. there were marginal east west 50 mhz openings, but nothing like those of the three previous years. propagation on lower frequencies was no better than fair, except for a short period near the middle of the month. the solar flux is expected to continue downward through the forecast week, but this will not affect the traditional dx bands appreciably. in fact, the lower geomagnetic activity will mean higher average signal levels and less fading than in the past week. propagation via the f layer is unlikely on 50 mhz east west paths. north south 50 mh work should be possible when the wwv k index is 3 or higher. a severe disturbance in progress as this bulletin was issued will decrease, bringing genrally good propagation december 22 through 24, and again in the last 3 days of the old year. the prediction charts in december qst should be on the conservative side in this period. american sunspot numbers last week were between 86 and 136, for a mean of 119 ar