[net.ham-radio] ARRL Propagation Bulletin 51

ad7i (12/21/82)

qst de ad7i
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 51	from arrl headquarters
newington ct  december 19, 1982
to all radio amateurs  bt

the solar flux went above 200 december 4, reached 279 six days
later, and then dropped sharply to 179 on the 19th.  because of many
solar flares, at least two of nearly record intensity, the period of
high flux was rather disapointing.  there were marginal east west
50 mhz openings, but nothing like those of the three previous years.
propagation on lower frequencies was no better than fair, except for
a short period near the middle of the month.

the solar flux is expected to continue downward through the forecast
week, but this will not affect the traditional dx bands appreciably.
in fact, the lower geomagnetic activity will mean higher average
signal levels and less fading than in the past week.   propagation
via the f layer is unlikely on 50 mhz east west paths.	north south
50 mh work should be possible when the wwv k index is 3 or higher.

a severe disturbance in progress as this bulletin was issued will
decrease, bringing genrally good propagation december 22 through
24, and again in the last 3 days of the old year.  the prediction
charts in december qst should be on the conservative side in this
period.

american sunspot numbers last week were between 86 and 136, for a
mean of 119  ar