ad7i@houxp.UUCP (Paul Newland) (08/16/83)
qst de ad7i holmdel, new jersey, u.s.a. hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 33 from arrl headquarters newington ct august 15, 1983 to all radio amateurs bt after rising to 155 on august 12, the solar flux fell back again to 139 by the 14th. despite this drop the flux is running well above its levels for the same points in the previous solar rotation. such statistics emphasize an important point regarding the so called 11 year cycle. we still have periods of relatively good solar activity, despite the statistical peak of cycle 21 having occurred nearly four years ago. there were 189 days during the peak years, 1979 through 1981, when the flux was 155 or lower. twice in those years it remained below 155 for a week or more at a stretch. during the forecast week, the flux should go lower for another day or two, then start back up again about the 18th. there was a mild disturbed period just before bulletin time, but things are improving and august 16 to 18 should bring good summer conditions. a recurrent disturbance is expected about august 19 to 21. look for generally good propagation and the first significant rise in muf of the fall season beginning about august 31 and lasting through the first days of september. vhf enthusiasts in the higher latitudes may have auroral propagation around august 20 and 29. american sunspot numbers for august 4 through 10 were between 58 and 90 with a mean of 69.9 ar