ad7i@houxp.UUCP (Paul Newland) (11/29/83)
qst de ad7i hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 48 from arrl headquarters newington ct november 28, 1983 to all radio amateurs bt the solar flux dropped to 80 on november 23, its lowest since early august 1977. it has risen gradually since, reaching 87 on the 27th. higher flux levels are likely through the first week of december. when solar activity is low, the best available sho t term indicator of propagation conditions is the geomagnetic index given hourly by wwv and updated every three hours. if the k value is two or lower, and decreasing, good high latitude propagation will prevail. rising k values mean increased fading, lower muf, and loss of propagation on high latitude circuits. poor conditions prevailed as this bulletin was being prepared, but improved propagation and higher muf are expected december 1 through 4. about a week of less favorable propagation is due after the 5th. the f layer muf is closely related to the solar flux. values in the 80s or lower mean marginal propagation onn 21 and 28 mhz, and long skip on all dx fr quencies. dx horizons expand markedly on 80 and 160 meters when the flux is below 100 and falling. the number and duration of openings on 21 and 28 mhz are decreasing currently, but occasional high signal levels and very long skip will keep these bands interesting for another year, at least ar