ad7i (12/14/82)
qst de ad7i hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 50 from arrl headquartere newington ct december 13, 1982 to all radio amateurs bt the solar flux rise that began at 171 on december 2 peaked at 279 on the 19th, the highest reading since february 1. for two days the flux was more than 100 points above the corresponding day in the previous solar rotation, an unlikely event so far past the peak of this solar cycle. this activity pattern will be reversed, probably before the 19th, as the decline that began on the 11th is expected to be a steep one. the high solar flux in recent days did not bring much improvement in dx conditions, because it was associated with numerous and intense solar flares. the increased geomagnetic activity resulting from these caused high absorption on all amateur frequencies. still the 50 mhz band was open marginally across the atlantic on at least three days. the down side of the flux peak should bring generally good propagation but with the loss of 50 mhz dx, probably by the 17th. the earths magnetic field will be more stable through the forecast week, resulting in better conditions on all dx frequencies, a trend that will be reversed again about the 19th. american sunspot numbers were between 119 and 181 last week, for a mean of 147. they have peaked and will be much lower before next weeks bulletin ar
ad7i@houxp.UUCP (12/15/83)
qst de ad7i hr propagatin forecast bulletin nr 50 from arrl headquarters newington ct december 12, 1983 to all radio amateurs bt during the last half of november, solar activity was very low and there were days when no sunspots could be seen. after december 2, the sun began to look more as it should for this point in the solar cycle. the solar flux had been as low as 80, but it peaked at 112 on the 9th, just in time for the arrl 10 meter contest on the 10th and 11th. there was worldwide contest activity and the many impressive scores will show that this is no time to be writing off 28 mhz for the rest of the solar cycle. an outbreak of new sunspots is nearly always followed by an increase in geomagnetic activity and generally poor propagation in the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. we were close to auroral conditions as this bulletin was being prepared, and high absorption and severe fading are likely to be with us most of the time through the 15th. conditions will improve the next two days and remain quite good through the 21st. the balance of the month will be erratic, until the 30th, bit generally gmod propagation will close out the old year and usher in the new. american sunspot numbers for december 1 through 7 were between 3 and 42 with a mean of 18.3 ar