rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (01/10/84)
PROPAGATION BULLETIN NR 1 FROM ARRL HEADQUARTERS NEWINGTON CT JANUARY 3 1984 TO ALL RADIO AMATEURS SOLAR ACTIVITY IN DECEMBER WAS SIMILAR TO THAT IN NOVEMBER. THE MONTHLY SOLAR FLUX AVERAGE WAS 93.7...UP LESS THAN ONE UNIT FROM NOVEMBER. BOTH MONTHS SET A PATTERN TYPICAL OF EXPECTATIONS FOR THE COOLER MONTHS OF 1984. THERE WILL BE HIGHER PEAKS AND LOWER VALLEYS AT TIMES BUT THE OVERALL DECLINE WILL BE BARELY NOTICEABLE TO THE CASUAL USER OF THE HF BANDS OTHER THAN 28 MHZ. IN PRACTICAL TERMS THE DECLINE OF CYCLE 21 HAS MOVED DX CONDITIONS ONE BAND LOWER IN FREQUENCY. THE EFFECT IS MOST NOTICEABLE ON 28 MHZ BUT IT WILL BE SHOWING MORE ON 21 MHZ AS THE SOLAR FLUX AVERAGE MOVES BELOW ABOUT 90. BY CONTAST...WORLDWIDE DX ON 160 AND 80 IS PICKING UP MARKEDLY...A CHANGE NOT WELCOMED BY TRAFFIC HANDLERS WHO LIKE THE SEMI LOCAL CHARACTER OF THESE BANDS DURING THE HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY YEARS. FOR EARLY JANUARY WE CAN EXPECT VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT THE 12TH...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF SPELL OF GOOD PROPAGATION AROUND JANUARY 5. A LONGER STRETCH OF GOOD SIGNAL LEVELS AND MINIMIM FADING IS EXPECTED THE 13TH TO 18TH. ABOUT AVERAGE WINTER PROPAGATION IS LIKELY THE 19TH THROUGH 26TH. THE SOLAR FLUX WILL BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THE MONTH TO LIMIT DX ACTIVITY ON 28 MHZ TO THE LOWER LATITUDES AND TRANSEQUATORIAL CIRCUITS MOST OF THE TIME. AMERICAN SUNSPOT NUMBERS FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 22 THROUGH 28 WERE BETWEEN 0 AND 21 WITH A MEAN OF 10.3.