rjr@mgweed.UUCP (01/18/84)
QST DE K9EUI PROPAGATION BULLETIN NR 3 FROM ARRL HEADQUARTERS NEWINGTON CT JANUARY 16 1984 TO ALL RADIO AMATEURS BEGINNING JANUARY 6,THE SOLAR FLUX ROSE GRADUALLY,REACHING A HIGH OF 106 ON THE 13TH. IT WAS DROPPING BACK AS THIS BULLETIN WAS ISSUED AND THE DOWNTREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 19TH. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT RISE THEREAFTER UNTIL THE END OF JANUARY. WE HAVE BEEN IN A RELATIVE PERIOD OF SOLAR CALM FOR ABOUT TEN DAYS IN WHICH THE MUF HAS BEEN LOW, BUT PROPAGATION HAS BEEN GENERALLY GOOD OTHERWISE. JANUARY HAS BEEN TYPICAL OF WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SIX WEEKS OR SO. PROPAGATION CHANGES WILL BE MORE THE RESULT OF THE SUN'S MOVE NORTHWARD THAN OF ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. FOR THE FORECAST WEEK, THERE WILL BE INCREASING GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY, WHICH WILL DEGRADE HIGH LATITUDE CIRCUITS MAINLY. TRANSEQUATORIAL AND OTHER LOW LATITUDE PATHS WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD. NO SERIOUS DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE LAST FEW DAYS OF JANUARY. SOLAR FLUX NUMBERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE SAME PERIOD. THE NORTH ATLANTIC PATH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST VARIABLE, PARTICULARLY ON 21 AND 28 MHZ. THE LATTER BAND WILL BE USEFUL MAINLY IN THE LOW LATITUDES AND THE TRANSEQUATORIAL PATHS. AMERICAN SUNSPOT NUMBERS FOR JANUARY 5 THROUGH 11 WERE BETWEEN 20 AND 46, WITH A MEAN OF 33.4.