[net.ham-radio] ARRL Propagation bulletin Nr. 3

rjr@mgweed.UUCP (01/18/84)

QST DE K9EUI
PROPAGATION BULLETIN NR 3   FROM ARRL HEADQUARTERS NEWINGTON CT
JANUARY 16 1984   TO ALL RADIO AMATEURS

BEGINNING JANUARY 6,THE SOLAR FLUX  ROSE  GRADUALLY,REACHING  A
HIGH OF 106 ON THE 13TH.  IT WAS DROPPING BACK AS THIS BULLETIN
WAS ISSUED AND THE DOWNTREND IS EXPECTED  TO  CONTINUE  THROUGH
THE  19TH.   THERE  WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT RISE THEREAFTER UNTIL
THE END OF JANUARY.

WE HAVE BEEN IN A RELATIVE PERIOD OF SOLAR CALM FOR  ABOUT  TEN
DAYS  IN  WHICH  THE MUF HAS BEEN LOW, BUT PROPAGATION HAS BEEN
GENERALLY GOOD OTHERWISE.  JANUARY HAS BEEN TYPICAL OF WHAT CAN
BE  EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SIX WEEKS OR SO.  PROPAGATION CHANGES
WILL BE MORE THE RESULT OF THE SUN'S MOVE NORTHWARD THAN OF ANY
MAJOR CHANGES IN SUNSPOT ACTIVITY.

FOR THE FORECAST WEEK, THERE  WILL  BE  INCREASING  GEOMAGNETIC
ACTIVITY,  WHICH  WILL  DEGRADE  HIGH LATITUDE CIRCUITS MAINLY.
TRANSEQUATORIAL AND OTHER LOW LATITUDE  PATHS  WILL  BE  MOSTLY
GOOD.  NO SERIOUS DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE LAST FEW
DAYS OF JANUARY.

SOLAR FLUX NUMBERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE  LOW  SIDE  FOR  THE
SAME  PERIOD.   THE NORTH ATLANTIC PATH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MOST VARIABLE, PARTICULARLY ON 21 AND 28 MHZ. THE  LATTER  BAND
WILL   BE   USEFUL   MAINLY   IN  THE  LOW  LATITUDES  AND  THE
TRANSEQUATORIAL PATHS.

AMERICAN SUNSPOT NUMBERS FOR JANUARY 5 THROUGH 11 WERE  BETWEEN
20 AND 46, WITH A MEAN OF 33.4.