ad7i (01/19/83)
qst de ad7i red bank, new jersey, u.s.a. hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 3 from arrl headquarters newington ct janqary 16, 1983 to all radio amateurs bt major changes in solar activity have occurred in recent weeks. there was only a slow rise and fall in the solar flux, from 136 to 170, and back down to 140. the flux was rising gradually after january 13, but no major peak seems imminent. flux levels have been as much as 110 points below those at the same time in the previous solar rotation. no large solar flares have been reported, and the average level of geomagnetic activity has continued much below that of december. this made for more stable long distance propagation, partqcularly on h oh latitude circuits. the muf was lower in early january, but otherwise dx conditions have been generally good, except for an absorption peak january 10 and 11. there will be higher wwv a and k indices during much of the forecast week, and conditions will bepsomewhat like those of january to date. more stable and generally better conditions are expected after january 22. the solar flux is likely to average higher in the last half of january than in the first half, but the increase will have only a slight effect on the higher frequency dx bands. january may have a solar flux average below that of any month in recent years. american sunspot numbers for january 6 through 12 ranged from a low of 67 on the 11th to a high of 110 on the 8th for a mean of 90r4 ar
pbn@hou5a.UUCP (01/18/84)
qst de ad7i hr propagation bulletin nr 3 newington ct january 16, 1984 to all radio amateurs bt beginning january 6, the solar flux rose gradually, reaching a high of 106 on the 13th. it was dropping back as this bulletin was issued, and the downtrend is expected to continue through the 19th. there will be only a slight rise thereafter until the end of january. we have been in a relative period of solar calm for about ten days in which the muf has been low, but propagation has been generally good otherwise. january has been typical of what can be expected for the next six weeks or so. propagation changes will be more the result of the suns move northward than of any major changes in sunspot activity. for the forecast week, there will be increasing geomagnetic activity, which will degrade high latitude circuits mainly. transequatorial and other low latitude paths will be mostly good. no serious disturbances are expected before the last few days of january. solar flux numbers are likely to be on the low side for the same period. the north atlantic path will continue to be the most variable, particularly on 21 and 28 mhz. the latter band will be useful mainly in the low latitudes and the transequatorial paths. american sunspot numbers for january 5 through 11 were between 20 and 46, with a mean of 33.4 ar