rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (02/07/84)
QST DE K9EUI PROPAGATION BULLETIN NR 6 FROM ARRL HEADQUARTERS NEWINGTON CT FEBRUARY 6 1984 TO ALL RADIO AMATEURS LATE JANUARY PROVIDED A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE SOMETIMES ERRATIC AND ALMOST UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY. AFTER MORE THAN TEN WEEKS OF THE LOWEST FLUX AND SUNSPOT NUMBERS SEEN SINCE 1977, THE SUN CAME ALIVE SUDDENLY AROUND JANUARY 20. SEVERAL SUNSPOT GROUPS, LARGER THAN ANY SEEN IN A YEAR, APPEARED ON AREAS OF THE SUN THAT HAD BEEN ALMOST QUIET IN RECENT MONTHS. THE FLUX ROSE 80 POINTS TO 178, THEN ON TO 180 BY THE 29TH. THIS WAS HIGHER THAN AT ANY POINT IN THE PAST YEAR. A STEEP DOWNTURN BEGAN FEBRUARY 1, THE FLUX DROPPING TO 118 BY THE 5TH. WE WERE HEADED INTO A QUIET INTERVAL AS THIS BULLETIN WAS ISSUED, AND PROPAGATION WILL BE MORE STABLE, BUT WITH LOWER MUF, THROUGH ABOUT THE 17TH. THE FLUX AND THE MUF WILL PEAK AGAIN LATE IN THE MONTH, THOUGH PROBABLY NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT THEY DID IN LATE JANUARY. DX CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY BETTER, MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SUN'S MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. AMERICAN SUNSPOT NUMBERS FOR JANUARY 26 THROUGH FEBRUARY 1 WERE BETWEEN 91 AND 127 WITH A MEAN OF 100.3.