rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (10/31/84)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 44 from arrl headquarters newington ct october 29, 1984 to all radio amateurs bt on october 23 the solar flux dropped steadily, to 70 on the 26th, remaining there as this bulletin was written. the high for october was only 77. unless solar activity markedly increases, the october flux average will be just under 74. the most recent month at this level was september 1976, less than 3 months into the present solar cycle. solar flux records for cycles 18 through 20 show monthly statistics similar to those for october recorded at times averaging only ten months from the ends of the cycles. this is not to say that we have less than a year from the end of cycle 21, but it will have to follow a very different course from its 3 predecessors, if it is to approach the long term average cycle length of 11.2 years. at bulletin time the flux was coasting at 70, and should rise this week, but probably not above 75. the solar calm has made for good conditions on 14 mhz and lower frequencies but with more muf than given in any long range predictions, such as the charts in recent issues of qst. no major propagation change is likely before early november. then higher geomagnetic activity will bring lower signal levels and increased fading in high latitude circuits much of the time through about november tenth ar