[net.ham-radio] arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 11

rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (03/20/85)

qst de k9eui

hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 11   from arrl headquarters

newington ct   march 17, 1985

to all radio amateurs bt

in 18 days ending march 16, the solar flux averaged  69.9,  and
was  never  above 71.  the rise predicted last week began march
12 with the flux at 69.  it was 73 on  the  17th,  its  highest
value  since  february  21, and is expected to rise for another
two days or so. this could make a noticeable improvement in the
21  and  14 mhz bands, and wake up the 28 mhz band, at least on
transequatorial circuits.

with wwv a indices below 10 most of the  time,  propagation  on
the  active  frequencies  was  fairly  good  in  the past week.
geomagnetic activity is expected to rise this week, which  will
hamper propagation in the higher latitudes.  the vernal equinox
this week marks this  period  as  the  best  of  the  year  for
propagation  on  north south and other transequatorial paths on
all amateur dx frequencies. the authors florida  log  for  last
year  at  this time shows our first 50 mhz te qso, with lu8yyo,
on march 18.  work with south  and  central  america  was  done
almost  daily  thereafter,  from  the  southernmost states, and
intermittently from most other areas, for several  weeks.   the
much  lower  solar activity currently may keep the te mode from
working on 50 mhz this year, but now is the time to be trying.

propagation is expected to be generally fair to  good  most  of
the  forecast  week,  with the muf running a bit higher than it
has been recently.  conditions will be  less  favorable  toward
the  end  of  the  week in the higher latitudes, as geomagnetic
activity rises, but no serious disturbances  are  likely  until
about march 26.

correspondence regarding these bulletins should be addressed to
the  author,  ed  tilton,  w1hdq,  po box 5529, spring hill, fl
33526, until early may, and to the callbook address thereafter,
until further notice.

american sunspot numbers for march 7 to 13 were between 11  and
0 with a mean of 5.6  ar