rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (03/20/85)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 11 from arrl headquarters newington ct march 17, 1985 to all radio amateurs bt in 18 days ending march 16, the solar flux averaged 69.9, and was never above 71. the rise predicted last week began march 12 with the flux at 69. it was 73 on the 17th, its highest value since february 21, and is expected to rise for another two days or so. this could make a noticeable improvement in the 21 and 14 mhz bands, and wake up the 28 mhz band, at least on transequatorial circuits. with wwv a indices below 10 most of the time, propagation on the active frequencies was fairly good in the past week. geomagnetic activity is expected to rise this week, which will hamper propagation in the higher latitudes. the vernal equinox this week marks this period as the best of the year for propagation on north south and other transequatorial paths on all amateur dx frequencies. the authors florida log for last year at this time shows our first 50 mhz te qso, with lu8yyo, on march 18. work with south and central america was done almost daily thereafter, from the southernmost states, and intermittently from most other areas, for several weeks. the much lower solar activity currently may keep the te mode from working on 50 mhz this year, but now is the time to be trying. propagation is expected to be generally fair to good most of the forecast week, with the muf running a bit higher than it has been recently. conditions will be less favorable toward the end of the week in the higher latitudes, as geomagnetic activity rises, but no serious disturbances are likely until about march 26. correspondence regarding these bulletins should be addressed to the author, ed tilton, w1hdq, po box 5529, spring hill, fl 33526, until early may, and to the callbook address thereafter, until further notice. american sunspot numbers for march 7 to 13 were between 11 and 0 with a mean of 5.6 ar