rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (08/06/85)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 31 from arrl headquarters newington ct august 4, 1985 to all radio amateurs bt areas of the sun responsible for the solar flux peak of 101 on july 7 are facing the earth again, but currently the flux is resting at 77. it peaked at 81 july 29 and 30, and has been drifting slowly downward since. despite lower flux levels, the 28 and 50 mhz bands were open to europe in the evening of august 4, eastern time. several contacts were made with an ea4, crossband 50 to 28 mhz. many contacts were made 2 way on 50 mhz with the british isles earlier last week. reflecting the changing position of the sun with respect to the northen hemisphere, there has been north south f layer propagation, on 28 mhz in the past few days. ten meter beacons in several south american countries, and as far south as vp8, are being heard again for the first time since early june. no appreciable rise in east west f layer muf is likely for another 3 weeks or so. only one small sunspot group has been visible recently, and even that is shrinking in size. lower flux levels are not necessarily bad for propagation, as nearly quiet sun (makes) for generally more stable conditions on frequencies below 14 mhz at this time of year. we were in a disturbed period at bulletin time, but better conditions are expected august 6 to 8 and 10 to 13. the second half of august will tend to be better than the first. the solar flux average for july was 79. it is expected to be somewhat lower in august, with a long low spell after about the middle of the month ar