rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (08/19/85)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 33 from arrl headquarters newington, ct august 19, 1985 to all radio amateurs bt from august 11 through 18 the solar flux was never higher than 68. there were five days of 67, and on the 17th a 9 year low record of 66 was recorded. we have to go back to july 1976, to find the only other 66 of this sunspot cycle, which actually began early in that month. to place this information in proper perspective, it should be pointed out that the first 66 in the down side of cycle 20 came in may 1976, and there were monthly solar flux averages in the low 70s as far back as december 1975. the continuous solar flux record goes back only to early 1947. it shows that cycles 18, 19, 20 and 21 are all quite different from one another. the record does not necessarily indicate an early end for cycle 21, though something less than an 11 year life does now appear as a likely possibility, to be discussed in these bulletins later as more evidence is obtained. though no spots have been seen on the sun since a very small one appeared on august 10 and was gone the next day, a moderate flux rise is expected this week, probably peaking around the 26th. there is normally a gradual improvement in the dx picture in august, as the sun becomes more favorably positioned for the northern hemisphere. dx activity should pick up slightly on 21 and 24 mhz, and some north south dx should show on 28 mhz. even small solar flux variations will show more effect on propagation after early september. american sunspot numbers for august 8 to 14 were between 0 and 12 with a mean of 6 ar