eric@snark.thyrsus.com (Eric S. Raymond) (01/29/91)
My local all-news station just carried an announcement from Microsoft that it
is terminating its OS/2 development program in order to concentrate on its
Windows product.
No details or followup were added. However, several things are instantly
obvious.
One is that OS/2 is now effectively dead. Sure, IBM is still working on it ---
but does anybody think even Fortune 500 planning staffs are idiotic enough
to sink money into an OS that never made it to full production status and
has now been dumped by its own designers?
Two is that the IBM/Microsoft "strategic partnership" is also dead. Given that
the two were making grandiose public plans for OS/2 codevelopment less than
six weeks ago, IBM has to see this decision as a kick in the teeth. Further,
the two no longer have any significant interests in common -- the PC clone
market is well-enough established that Microsoft doesn't *need* IBM anymore.
Three is that Bill Gates hasn't lost his chutzpah or his eye for the main
chance. He's putting all his eggs in one basket; his company's future now
hangs on Windows. He's gambling that the credibility hit Microsoft takes will
be offset by the gains from being able to concentrate his systems people on
doing one thing well. He is probably correct in both of these judgements; it
remains to be seen whether the original strategic mistake that led to this
pass is so severe that even this best isn't enough to ensure Microsoft's future.
Four is that UNIX's lock on the general-purpose multi-user market is now secure.
There was never any serious technical challenge from OS/2, but because many
Fortune 500 companies could be conned into overlooking its dependence on the
80x86 line it had a serious psychological impact. Neither DOS nor Windows
can cut it for multi-user use and nothing else has the backing to break into a
maturing market. So UNIX is it.
Now, of course, we get to watch the feebs in the trade press claim they knew
it all along...
--
Eric S. Raymond = eric@snark.thyrsus.com (mad mastermind of TMN-Netnews)