rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (10/09/84)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 41 from arrl headquarters newington ct october 8, 1984 to all radio amateurs bt solar flux and sunspot numbers were well below predicted levels since early may, and the sun has been all but devoid of spots for the past four weeks. this has changed all aspects of the dx picture, at a time of year that normally brings some of our best propagation. it is possible that a shift to higher solar activity will develop before winter, but there is no credible evidence on which to base a prediction at this time. there were brief spurts of dx on 28 mhz in recent days, and 21 mhz has been fairly lively for short periods, but both bands are far below what had been expected for the northern u.s. and adjacent areas of canada. during the forecast week, propagation is expected to improve gradually up to the middle of october. fairly severe disturbances will return about october 17 through 25. the month will close with generally better propagation on all frequencies, but with 28 and 21 mhz not performing up to earlier expectations for this autumn. for more than a month the sun has looked very much like it did at the beginning of the current solar cycle in the summer of 1976. dx on the higher bands has suffered markedly as a result. american sunspot numbers for september 27 through october 3 were between 0 and 7, with a mean of 1.3 ar
rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (10/15/85)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 41 from arrl headquarters newington ct october 14, 1985 to all radio amateurs bt the very low level of solar activity continues. in 24 days beginning september 19, the solar flux averaged only 67.7, and never was above 69. only july 1976, in the first month of solar cycle 21, can match the solar calm of september and october, to date. a typical result, for this connecticut observer, is that 14 mhz is almost completely a daylight dx band. even the old reliable 10 mhz wwv signal is gone by about 0130 utc, until about an hour after sunrise the next morning. the 21 mhz band is marginally useful from mid morning to dusk but mostly to the lower latitudes. only an occasional day provides any propagation on 24 or 28 mhz, and that for only a few hours of north south work. the 10 meter beacons in the range 28.2 to 28.3 mhz come through briefly on the best days, but only those in south america are heard currently. prospects for the forecast week are for erratic conditions through about october 19. there will be some improvement thereafter, until about the 22nd, and again october 25 to 30. severe geomagnetic disturbances can be expected again in the first few days of november. these will be most troublesome in the northern tier of states and in canada. there were no visible sunspots reported for the week of october 3 through 9 ar