rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (10/16/84)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast nr 42 from arrl headquarters newington ct october 15, 1984 to all radio amateurs bt the solar flux has been below predicted levels for more than four months, and it has run close to minimum values since early september. currently, flux numbers are more than 20 points below the 96 used for the prediction charts in october qst. thus, when 21 and 28 mhz are normally at their best, 28 mhz is useful only on transequatorial or other low latitude paths, and 21 mhz is behaving more like 28 mhz was expected to be. unless solar activity increases markedly, the rest of this year will be very different from the printed predictions, which are prepared far in advance of their appearance in qst. as for the week ahead, geomagnetic activity was headed downward at bulletin time. dx conditions were fair to good, and will continue so through about the 16th. higher geomagnetic field activity is expected most of the time through the 25th, but the months end should be the best of the entire autumn dx season, especially on high latitude paths. if sunspot activity rises, the effects on dx in late october could be very favorable. if current flux levels continue, 14 mhz and lower frequencies will be the dx mainstays for october and early november in all but the southern tier of states. american sunspot numbers for october 4 through 10 were between 0 and 15 with a mean of 5.9 ar
rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (10/22/85)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 42 from arrl headquarters newington ct october 21, 1985 to all radio amateurs bt in a special midweek bulletin we reported a solar flux rise that began october 13. from 67 it rose to 80 by the 20th, the highest flux reading since early july. the 21 mhz band has been open over much of the world in the past few days, and 10 meter beacons z21and and zs6pw have been heard in northern usa for the first time in more than a year. over the past weekend 10 meter occupancy was the highest in many months. as of sunday night we were coming out of a week of generally poor conditions, the result of above average geomagnetic field activity. things should improve october 21 through 23, but absorption and fading will be bad again october 26 to 30. another major disturbance is expected early in november. the main source of the higher solar flux is a fairly large spot area that came around the east limb october 15. its influence will decline as it moves westward this week, and the flux will slide downward if, as seems likely, no major new areas replace it. the main propagation factor for the next few days however will be magnetic field activity. the a index is low as this is written and it is dropping lower, but not for long. there should be a longer favorable period later this week, but a major disturbance will be with us by november 1. we are in the best weeks of the entire year for propagation in the northern hemisphere, in any case, and with enough solar activity to keep things interesting through this week. american sunspot numbers for october 10 to 16 were between 0 and 17 with a mean of 4.3 ar