rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (11/06/85)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 44 from arrl headquarters newington ct november 4, 1985 to all radio amateurs bt for several months solar activity has been lower than might have been expected at this point only about nine years into solar cycle 21. at the middle of october there was a remarkable reversal of this trend. the first sunspot activity of any consequence since last july appeared on the east limb of the sun october 15. in a few days it produced solar flux readings of 95 on october 22 and 23, and a run above 75 for 12 consecutive days. the most recent 75 had been logged on august 11. this rise could not have come at a better time, as we are just entering the prime dx season for the northern hemisphere. the second half of october saw 21 mhz open over much of the world, and 24 and 28 mhz were more active than at anytime this past year. though the solar flux was back down to 70, both 21 and 28 mhz were fairly productive in the recent arrl sweepstakes and cq ww dx contests. judging by the shape of our october solar flux curve, there is a fairly good chance for another surge beginning about november 11, when the same area of the sun will be facing the earth again. this could begin as early as november 6, as there was a small bulge in the flux curve beginning october 9. as this bulletin was being prepared, we were at the peak of a strong geomagnetic disturbance. this should be giving way to improved propagation november 4 to 6. mildly disturbed conditions may be with us much of the time through november 19. the best overall time of the entire fall should be november 20 to 28, with the muf the highest at the beginning of that period. american sunspot numbers for october 24 through 30 were between 0 and 53 with a mean of 11 ar