[net.ham-radio] arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 47

rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (11/21/84)

qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 47   from arrl headquarters
newington ct  november 18, 1984
to all radio amateurs bt

the  solar  flux  has  been  between  69  and  77  since  early
september.   the  most  recent comparable low came in may, june
and the first few days of july  1976.   that  ten  week  summer
period  had  much  less impact on thu dx scene than the present
low which began just as the northern hemisphere was moving into
its  best  month  of  the  year  for worldwide dx on the higher
frequencies.  as for sunspots, the author  of  these  bulletins
has never seen the surface of the sun so clean, or for so long,
in more than ten years of observation, including the final  two
years of the previous solar cycle.

propagation was fair to poor on all  frequencies  much  of  the
past  week  as  predicted.  during a major geomagnetic storm on
the 16th, the geomagnetic a index reached 76,  its  highest  in
more  than two years.  this produced watery and weak signals on
all hf bands and a wild aurora delighted the vhf fraternity  in
the  more  northerly  states.  aftereffects of this disturbance
may be  with  us  for  a  day  or  two,  however,  much  better
propagation  will  move  in  after about the twenty first.  the
solar flux is unlikely to go above the middle seventies, so  dx
opportunities  on  21  and 28 mhz will be brief, except for low
latitude east west and low latitude north south circuits.

american sunspot numbers for november 8 through 15 were between
3 and 19 with a mean of 13.6  ar

rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (11/27/85)

qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 47  from arrl headquarters
newington ct  november 25, 1985
to all radio amateurs bt

as predicted last week, propagation was about  as  good  as  we
will  see  in  the next two years or so, especially as to dx on
21, 24 and 28 mhz.  though the solar flux dropped steadily from
a  high  of  86  on  november 15 to 74 on the 24th, geomagnetic
activity was below average, making for strong,  steady  signals
on  all  dx  frequencies.  activity on 28 mhz was mainly in the
lower latitudes and on transequatorial paths, but 21 mhz was in
fine  shape.   this  band  was very good to japan and the south
pacific from the writers florida gulf coast  site  november  23
and 24.

another good break is likely november 26 and 27, followed by  a
generally  poor  spell  from  about  the  29th  to  december 2.
predicting the solar flux range for the latter period is  risky
indeed.   the  best  guess  is  that  the  decline  underway at
bulletin time will bring flux values in the high 60s  by  about
december 1.  some upward movement is expected after december 2,
but not as much as (garbled) half of november.

users of 28 and 50  mhz  will  find  some  interesting  e  skip
activity  during december and early january.  this is the major
e skip season in the southern hemisphere.  we will  catch  some
too,  but nothing to equal what we experienced during our early
summer  ar