rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (11/21/84)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 47 from arrl headquarters newington ct november 18, 1984 to all radio amateurs bt the solar flux has been between 69 and 77 since early september. the most recent comparable low came in may, june and the first few days of july 1976. that ten week summer period had much less impact on thu dx scene than the present low which began just as the northern hemisphere was moving into its best month of the year for worldwide dx on the higher frequencies. as for sunspots, the author of these bulletins has never seen the surface of the sun so clean, or for so long, in more than ten years of observation, including the final two years of the previous solar cycle. propagation was fair to poor on all frequencies much of the past week as predicted. during a major geomagnetic storm on the 16th, the geomagnetic a index reached 76, its highest in more than two years. this produced watery and weak signals on all hf bands and a wild aurora delighted the vhf fraternity in the more northerly states. aftereffects of this disturbance may be with us for a day or two, however, much better propagation will move in after about the twenty first. the solar flux is unlikely to go above the middle seventies, so dx opportunities on 21 and 28 mhz will be brief, except for low latitude east west and low latitude north south circuits. american sunspot numbers for november 8 through 15 were between 3 and 19 with a mean of 13.6 ar
rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (11/27/85)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 47 from arrl headquarters newington ct november 25, 1985 to all radio amateurs bt as predicted last week, propagation was about as good as we will see in the next two years or so, especially as to dx on 21, 24 and 28 mhz. though the solar flux dropped steadily from a high of 86 on november 15 to 74 on the 24th, geomagnetic activity was below average, making for strong, steady signals on all dx frequencies. activity on 28 mhz was mainly in the lower latitudes and on transequatorial paths, but 21 mhz was in fine shape. this band was very good to japan and the south pacific from the writers florida gulf coast site november 23 and 24. another good break is likely november 26 and 27, followed by a generally poor spell from about the 29th to december 2. predicting the solar flux range for the latter period is risky indeed. the best guess is that the decline underway at bulletin time will bring flux values in the high 60s by about december 1. some upward movement is expected after december 2, but not as much as (garbled) half of november. users of 28 and 50 mhz will find some interesting e skip activity during december and early january. this is the major e skip season in the southern hemisphere. we will catch some too, but nothing to equal what we experienced during our early summer ar