rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (12/17/85)
qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 50 from arrl headquarters
newington ct december 16, 1985
to all radio amateurs bt
through the middle of the month, the solar flux curve for
december follows that that for four weeks earlier quite
markedly. combined with the beginning of the short winter
season for sporadic e skip on the higher frequencies, this made
for an exciting arrl 10 meter contest on december 14 and 15.
there was more visible activity on the sun in the past few days
than we have seen in quite some time. the solar flux peak of
83 on the 15th could hardly have been better timed. the flux
curve is expected to move lower this week, but we should not
see really quiet sun conditions again before about december 24.
recurrent geomagnetic disturbances are expected about december
17 and 27. generally good propagation is likely otherwise, with
gradually lower muf, through the years end. there should be
another slow rise in sola in solar activity during the first
week of january.
for a long time prior to late october, solar activity was
averaging lower than would have been expected, with at least
two years remaining in solar cycle 21. what we hae experienced
in these eight weeks or so is probably a fair example of what
lies ahead for at least the rest of the northern hemisphere
winter.
the author of these bulletins is interested in the usefulness
of the international ten meter beacons during the years of
lowest solar activity. if you look for beacon stations
frequently, we would appreciate receiving a list of beacons
heard during 1985. please send your list to,
ed tilton, w1hdq
p.o. box 5529
spring hill, fl 33526
american sunspot numbers for december 5 through 11 were between
2 and 12 with a mean of 7.6 ar