rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) (02/05/85)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 5 from arrl headquarters newington ct february 4, 1985 to all radio amateurs bt though the solar flux peaked at 91 on january 19, the factor more relevant to the propagation picture was the january average of only 76. it is also worth noting that there were 17 days in january when the solar flux was 72 or more, these being close to the minimum possible value at this time of year. february began on a somewhat more promising note, with the flux back up to 76, and some indications that it may go higher. any solar developments capable of bringing about major propagation changes will be reported in special bulletins as soon as possible after they are observed. geomagnetic activity was fairly low last week, making for improved high latitude propagation on 21 mhz and lower frequencies. higher k and a indices are expected february 5 through 8, making for poor east west propagation on the higher dx frequencies . transequatorial circuits may actually improve under these conditions. auroral propagation on 50 and 144 mhz is likely february 6 to 8, mainly in our more northerly areas and in adjacent canadian provinces. auroral effects usually peak in the early evening hours, but may last through the night. watch for wwv k indices of 3 or higher and for their predictions of geomagnetic storms. auroras often follow one to three days after major solar flares, also reported in wwv propagation bulletins heard at 18 minutes after each hour and changed 8 times daily. american sunspot numbers for january 24 to 30 were between 25 and 0 with a mean of 5.1 ar
wheatley@inuxi.UUCP (Steven Wheatley) (02/04/86)
qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 5 from arrl headquarters newington ct february 3, 1986 to all radio amateurs bt last weeks bulletin ended with a prediction of a solar flux rise, but what actually happened surpassed all expectations. a sizable new sunspot group came around the east limb january 30, but its effects had already been seen in a 7 point rise in the solar flux, beginning on the 28th. the number and size of the spots increased, and on february 2 another spot appeared, this time in the western half of the disc. the flux reached 90, its highest since last october. signals were heard on 21 mhz from africa to southern europe with w6 and w7 stations all in together. on 24 and 28 mhz the west coast call areas were also in well, working w1 and w2 land not audible in florida. the new lease on life for 10, 12 and 15 meters could last through much of the forecast week. it may be washed out by a recurrence of the disturbance of january 7, expected about february 4 or 5. it will be of interest to see if the lower solar flux peaks of november 15, december 16 and january 16, all apparently from one area of the sun, return in february. their effects would be maximum between about february 11 and 14. there have been no double peak months since last july, an exceptionally active month for so late in the solar cycle. vagaries in radio propagation, while frustrating at times, are all part of our great game. they may be more readily apparent in the low sunspot years, when activity on normally busy bands falls off. the author of these bulletins welcomes reports of propagation events that do not seem to fit normal patterns. send them to ed tilton, w1hdq, po box 5529, spring hill, fl 33526. please enclose an sase if a reply is wanted. there were no visible sunspots for the week january 23 to 29. ar