[net.ham-radio] ARRL PROPAGATION FORECAST BULLETIN #7

wheatley@inuxi.UUCP (Steven Wheatley) (02/19/86)

qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 7  from arrl headquarters
newington ct  february 17, 1986
to all radio amateurs bt

from january 26 to february 16 the solar flux was  higher  than
at  the  same  point  in the previous solar rotation.  over the
first 15 days of february the solar flux was  never  below  82,
and  it was 90 or higher for 10 days beginning february 2.  not
since june 1984 have  we  seen  numbers  like  these,  and  for
comparable  conditions  on  our dx frequencies we would have to
look back even farther.

also exceptional was the intensity of geomagnetic  disturbances
of  february  8  and 9.  the writer cannot recall hearing wwv k
indices of 8 and 9 before, in 12  years  of  daily  monitoring.
the  february  8  a  index  of 110 is exceeded only once in our
records.

as evidence piles up it seems that few auroras,  if  any,  have
had  such  impact on the world above 50 mhz.  users of 432 mhz,
particularly,   marveled   at   the   strength,   quality   and
geographical  coverage,  though  it must be remembered that uhf
stations and techniques have improved markedly in recent years.

the two fairly impressive sunspot groups involved have now gone
around  the  west limb of the sun and we can expect flux values
in the low 70s and high 60s until almost the end of the  month.
it  will  be interesting to see if these active areas return in
early march, when their part of  the  suns  (surface)  will  be
facing the earth again.  the author is not betting on it.

american sunspot numbers for february 6 through 12 were between
21 and 46 with a mean of 33  ar