george@genat.UUCP (George Gorsline) (02/26/86)
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qst de w1aw
propagation forecast bulletin nr 8 from arrl headquarters
newington ct february 24, 1986
to all radio amateurs
the solar flux curve for february is taking on the shape of a
slightly irregular sine wave. from 84 on february 1 it rises quickly
to 99 on the 3rd, peaks at 103 on the 5th, slides to 95 by the 9th,
and tumbles down to 70 on the 17th. it has been as low as 67 since,
and at 69 on the 23rd, it appears ready to start upward again.
the odds are against the flux reaching 103 in early march, as it did
in february. that figure was the highest since july 1984, and we are
now in what is probably the last full year of cycle 21. an
appreciable rise should be underway however before next weeks
bulletin.
the two week run at 85 or higher made the first half of february a
very interesting time on 21, 24 and 28 mhz. now that we are back to
quiet sun levels again, 24 and 28 mhz are almost devoid of dx, and 21
mhz is active mainly in the lower latitudes and on transequatorial
circuits. no major change in this pattern is expected before about
the 25th.
early february was marked by the most severe geomagnetic disturbances
in several years. because of the 28 day month, we can expect
recurrent major geomagnetic effects on about the same dates in march.
this two month pattern is apparent in propagation records for
february and march as far back as the 1930s. vhf enthusiasts take
note that the second weekend of march should be marked in red on your
operating schedule.
we were in a disturbance of milder category as this bulletin was
being prepared. it should be over by the 26th. the last 2 days of
february and the first few of march should be of slightly better than
average propagation on all dx frequencies.
american sunspot numbers for february 13 through 19 were between 0
and 20 with a mean of 4.9.
de VE3YDX Why not? __... ...__
--
George Gorsline, Jr. VE3FIU / K8HI
One of the VE3YDX gang... Y DX? Because it's there(~Y)!
__... ...__ . ... _.. _.._
Genamation, 351 Steelcase Rd. West, Markham Ontario L3R 3W1
{allegra|linus|ihnp4|...}!utzoo!mnetor!genat!george
(416) 475-9434