[net.followup] KAL 747 Airline saga

pocha@denelcor.UUCP (09/08/83)

The following is from US News and World Report.  09/12/83
		 Airborne Aggression: A Soviet Trademark.
      The downing of the South Korean airliner was only the latest and
most extreme episode in a series of attacks by Soviet gunners on military
and commercial planes over the last three decades.
Other incidents:-
1950, April 8.  American bomber with 20 on board disappears over Baltic.
      U.S. says plane was brought down by Soviets.
1951, Nov. 6.   U.S. Navy plane lost over international waters off Siberia
      after Soviet planes fire on it.   Crew of 10 missing.
1952, April 29. Soviets attack French airliner.  Two of the passengers
      on the commercial flight injured.
1952, June 13.  U.S. reconnaissance plane missing after interception by
      Soviet planes over Japan.
1952, July 16.  Russian jets down unarmed Swedish military plane over
      international waters in the Baltic. Seven crewmen rescued.
1952, Oct. 7.   U.S. bomber with crew of eight disappears over northern
      Japan after taking Soviet fire.
1953, March 10. U.S. Air Force jet fighter shot down by two Russian MiG's
      in Germany. No casualties.
1953, March 12. Soviet MiG's down British bomber over Elbe River Valley at
      the East-West frontier of Germany. Five crewmen die.
1953, March 15. U.S. reconnaissance plane attacked by MiG about 25 miles
      from Soviet border.  Shots exchanged, but neither is hit.
1953, July 29.  U.S. bomber shot down by MiG's over Sea of Japan. Sixteen
      crewmen killed.
1954, Jan. 22.  U.S. reconnaissance plane over Yellow Sea attacked by
      eight MiG's. No casualties.
1954, March 12. Two U.S. military planes flying near Czechoslovak border
      on training flight attacked by MiG. Both land safely.
1954, June 3rd. Belgian transport carrying livestock fired upon over
      Yugoslavia by MiG fighter. One crew member killed, two injured.
1954, Sept. 4.  U.S. Navy plane shot down by Soviet jets 30 miles off
      Siberian coast. One dead.
1954, Nov. 7.   American reconnaissance plane shot down over northern
      Hokkaido, Japan. One American killed.
1955, May 10.   Eight American fighter planes on patrol over international
      waters near North Korea attacked by MiG's. No casualties.
1955, May 22.   U.S. Navy patrol bomber attacked by Soviet aircraft near
      St. Lawrence Island in Bering Sea. Seven in crew injured.
1958, June 27.  Unarmed American military transport, diverted from its course
      by storm, shot down over Soviet Armenia. No deaths.
1958, Sept. 2.  Seventeen Americans lose lives when C-130 transport aircraft
      is shot down in Soviet Armenia near Turkish border.
1958, Nov. 7.   Soviet MiG's fire on U.S. Air Force reconnaissance jets over
      Baltic and Sea of Japan.
1959, June 16.    U.S. Navy patrol plane attacked by Soviet-made MiG over
      Sea of Japan. One crewman wounded.
1960, May 1st.    Russians down U.S. spy plane piloted by Francis Gary
      Powers. U-2 pilot captured, jailed.
1960, July 1st.   American RB-47 shot down in Barents Sea near Kola Peninsula.
      Four of six on board die.
1963, Nov. 20th.  Soviets down Iranian plane after it strays over Russian
      border and flies back into Iran.
1964, Jan. 28th.  U.S. Air Force jet trainer shot down over East Germany.
      Three American deaths.
1964, March 10th. American bomber downed by Soviets after it strayed across
      East German frontier. No one was killed.
1978, April 20th. South Korean airliner flying from Paris to Seoul fired at
      when it crosses Soviet territory. Two passengers killed, 13 hurt.
1981, July    Argentine cargo plane crashes after colliding with pursuing
      Soviet plane in Armenia.
1983, Sept. 1st.   KAL flight 007 attacked disappears 3:38 a.m. Tokyo time.
      269 people presumed dead.
                                John Pocha

mason@utcsrgv.UUCP (Dave Mason) (09/10/83)

The most interesting thing about this article is that virtually all
(>80% by estimate) of the incidents of Russians shooting down planes
were in the '50s and ALL of the ones since were planes shot down in
Soviet Air Space (Many of them MILITARY).  I disagree with thier methods
but I see no reason why they should be expected to put up with frequent
air-space violations.  I don't know what the US does in these circumstances.
Maybe there aren't as many strayings the other way so the Russians (reasonably)
consider any border crossings as spying missions of some sort.

 -- Gandalf's flunky Hobbit --   Dave Mason, U. Toronto CSRG,
        {cornell,watmath,ihnp4,floyd,allegra,utzoo,uw-beaver}!utcsrgv!mason
     or {decvax,linus,lsuc,research}!utzoo!utcsrgv!mason   (UUCP)

nishri@utcsstat.UUCP (%) (09/11/83)

September 10, 1983 NEW YORK (CP) - Was the Korean Air Lines jumbo jet spying on
Soviet military installations when it was shot down last week, as the Kremlin
claims?  It is an unpopular question to be asking in the United States, and
those beginning to pose it - a few intelligence experts, aviation specialists
and diplomats - are careful to preface it by saying the fact certainly wouldn't
justify shooting the plane down.
 But unexplained details of the incident have raised suspicions that the South
Korean national airline - like those of the Soviet Union and some of its 
allies - might be allowing its commercial flights to conduct intelligence-
gathering missions.  In the words of one authority, the Sept 1 tragedy with
its loss of 269 lives was "almost inevitable."
 U.S. intelligence experts were quoted this weeks as saying KAL pilots have
been "almost cavalier" in their disregard for Soviet airspace, particularly by
considering the area has been the scene of intensive intelligence efforts in
the past 30 years.
 "KAL is notoriously sloopy when it comes to flying off course," says defense
writer Ernest Volkman. "Their record is unequalled, except perhaps for Aeroflot
(the Soviet airline) or Cubana (the Cuban airline)."
 Soviet, Cuban and East European airlines have been known on several occasions
to have strayed off their Atlantic coast routes between Cuba and Canada to fly
over cruise missile testing grounds and military installations in the United
States.
 The last reported violation of Soviet airspace by the South Koreans was in
1978, when a KAL Boeing 707 flying a polar route between Seoul and Paris
found itself over Soviet testing ranges on the Arctic island of Novaya Zemlya,
and was forced down.
 In that incident, the airline also insisted the aircraft had not been warned
by Soviet fighter pilots before they opened fire.  But the passengers later
contradicted the KAL statement; one even produced a snapshot of a Soviet fighter
taken from a cabin window.
 The pilot of the 707, Kim Chang Kyu - who now flies Boeing 747s on the
Anchorage-to-Seoul run - was quoted yesterday as saying he found it "very hard
to imagine" how the crew of ill-fated Flight 007 was unable to realize it was
over the Soviet territory.  Weather radar aboard a 747 would almost certainly
register images of the Kamchatka peninsula and Kuril Islands, he said.
 Aviation experts, such as Frank Brady of the Institute of Navigation, have
also pointed out how difficult it would be for the sophisticated 747 navigation
system to lead Flight 007 as far off course as it apparently was.
 And why did the jumbo jet, after two hours of overflying Kamchatka and
Sakhalin Island, continue on a heading that would have taken it directly over 
the Soviet city of Vladivostok - despite the apparent presence of the Soviet
fighters?  Defence writer Volkman, former national security writer for
Defence Science magazine and now a freelancer, goes so far as to say KAL
airlines "routinely spy over Soviet territory, using civilians for cover."
"Nobody with access to intelligence will dispute that the Koreans use commercial
for reconnaissance purposes," he said. "The only question is whether this
particular flight was on such a mission."
 Aviation officials, while not so bold, concede a standard 747 flying over
Soviet territory is capable of gathering valuable electronic intelligence -
ELINT in the U.S. defence jargon - by simply tuning the UHF radio equipment
it uses for communication with airline offices to military frequencies.
The cockpit voice recorder would register background noise from the radio
which would include Soviet transmissions.  The tapes theoretically could
reveal useful information once they were deciphered in a computer back on
the ground.  A typical recorder retains only the last 30 minutes of cockpit
sounds, one aviation authority said.  "And nobody, not even Boeing, knows
what the Koreans have added to their planes," he said.
 There is plenty of room for ELINT equipment in the cargo hold of a 747, and
it wouldn't take the six tons of instruments aboard a standard RC-135
reconnaissance plane to make it a useful "spy platform," Volkman said.
"A 747 flies at an ideal speed and height to monitor microwave transmissions
and test radar defences," Volkman said.  "And that would explain why the
Soviets are searching so carefully for something that doesn't belong there."
 He said the use of commercial aircraft for spying is "getting out of hand,"
and warned that more tragedies will occur unless the practice is stopped.

mmt@dciem.UUCP (Martin Taylor) (09/11/83)

The Toronto Globe and Mail last Wednesday (7 Sept) carried an interview
with "the national security editor of Defence Science Magazine" with
some interesting comments not yet presented in this discussion.

"South Korea has regularly put passengers at risk by using airliners as
flying spy stations."

"Korean Air Lines planes overfly Soviet territory whenever they can
manage it. An airliner is the most perfect intelligence platform
you can think of. It is large, stable and slow-moving so that it can
take accurate readings of activity on the ground and the air around it."

"A `black box' recorder in the cargo hold of a jetliner can record
frequencies of radio and radar signals in areas it is passing over.
The digital recording is fed into a computer that sorts through the
readings and picks out information of military value. Frequencies
are changed regularly and the information must be updated every few
weeks.
  An amazing amount of information can be picked up from one of these
flights. From the intelligence point of view this is a top priority,
for instance for jamming radars."

"The Soviet decision to shoot down the airliner was the culmination of
a series of overflight incidents and warnings."

The article also points out that Soviet and Cuban airliners regularly
use the same spying tactics, points out that KAL has the very best of
navigational equipment, and even so overflew the main Soviet submarine
base on Kamchatka and at least three other military installations.
"The plane's mission was just too obvious to the Russians. What happened
to Flight 007 was inevitable."

I still think it is inexcusable to shoot down an airliner for spying
in peacetime, but the Russian moral system is different from ours,
and it seems there was lots of warning that such an incident would
happen if KAL continued its practices. From their point of view, their
stance of moral indignation and surprise at the US reaction is quite
reasonable.

Martin Taylor

karn@eagle.UUCP (Phil Karn) (09/13/83)

I am VERY surprised that so many people seem to be seriously considering
the Soviet's assertion that the 747 was spying.

One of the characteristics of human nature is that people tend to
ascribe their own characteristics to others. Because the Soviets know
that they regularly use Aeroflot flights for spying, they believe that
we must do the same thing. To believe otherwise would be to admit to
themselves that only THEY do nasty things to other people, and the
rationalization for their behavior would be harder to maintain. Even
though the USSR is a totalitarian state, they still seem to have a
strong fetish for "justifying" their actions to the world and
particularly to their people.

I think it VERY unlikely that the flight was really spying.  First of
all, it should be apparent that optical spying would not be very
productive, given that it was night and the reports of low cloud cover. 
For UHF or microwave spying, I'd think that there would be little need
to fly inside Soviet airspace; as I previously calculated, the horizon
distance at an altitude of 10 km would be on the order of 350 km; you
could get a good look at the island from the international air routes.

For either microwave or optical spying, modifications to the plane (such
as cutting windows in the bottom of the fuselage) would almost certainly
be necessary. This would be very hard to do on a commercial airliner
without being noticed by SOMEBODY on the ground.  Consider all the
people who come near commercial airliners: passengers (some of which
must eventually be Aviation Week reporters), fueling and maintenance
personnel, baggage handlers, etc.  Keeping this kind of thing secret in
such an open environment would be impossible.  I'm sure that if there
had been something "funny" going on, by now we'd have all kinds of
stories and rumors in the paper to this effect.

No, it's completely obvious to me that even the Politburo realizes that
they made a big, big mistake, but that their options are so limited that
they have no alternative but to defend their action to the hilt.  The
worst possible sin of a Soviet leader is to admit a mistake.  A careful
comparison of just the TASS statements shows all kinds of internal
inconsistencies, certainly far more than in the US statements so far.

Which brings us to the question of why the plane was off course.  There
are several possibilities:

1. Intentional.  One of the first things I noticed about the flight path
is that it very closely matched the great circle route from Anchorage to
Seoul.  It is possible that the pilot and/or airline took a bad gamble
in order to save on fuel and/or flying time.

2. Combined equipment malfunction/pilot error. One idea that struck me
the other day was a burned out segment on one of the INS displays; I
could visualize a situation in which the pilot entered the wrong data or
changed correct data based on an erroneous readout.  A clue here is his
last position report relative to Hokkaido: he had the distance right but
the direction wrong.

3. Pure pilot error.  Entering the wrong coordinates, setting the time
reference in the INS incorrectly, all kinds of possibilities.

4. Pure equipment error.  I think this one unlikely because of the
redundancy involved.  Very few of the off-course incidents that have
been reported were due solely to equipment error.

As to the Soviet claims that they didn't know they were shooting at a
civilian airlier, I suggest that you try the following experiment. A 747
is 70.51 meters long. At a distance of 2km this subtends an angle of
about 2 degrees. This is about four times the diameter of the moon or
sun. Take a look at the moon and compare its size to the width of your
thumb at arms-length. Then, if you live near a major airport (as I do),
go out and watch a few planes fly by and also compare their apparent
sizes to your thumb to get an idea of how large the 747 appeared to the
Soviet pilot. My eyesight isn't fantastic, but I'm convinced that I
would have been able to recognize a 747 under such conditions (remember
the pilot flew all around the plane first.)  At 10 km altitude,
the air is much clearer than down on the ground in NE New Jersey.

Maybe we should all send complimentary copies of Jane's Commercial Aircraft
(along with bottles of Windex) to Moscow.

Phil

rjnoe@ihlts.UUCP (09/14/83)

I like the idea of sending them Jane's and Windex.  It's appropriate.  But
what about their latest lie?  You know, when the alleged pilot who allegedly
was the one who slaughtered 269 innocent civilians (not to mention a nice
aircraft) went on Soviet TV and claimed that the "target" performed evasive
maneuvers before he mercilessly unleashed his two Anabs?

Right.  I can just see the pilot of a wide-body commercial aircraft filled
with passengers attempting to evade a Flagon.  I wasn't aware that Boeing
designed 747's to reach mach 1.5 or perform combat maneuvers.  I've been in
rather severe turbulence myself but I'll bet it wouldn't come close to being
in a jumbo jet trying to do even a 3-g climb.  Better get out the industrial-
strength Windex.  Or maybe a "dunce" sign to hang on their Pinocchio-noses.

	Roger Noe		...ihnp4!ihlts!rjnoe
-- 
	Roger Noe		...ihnp4!ihlts!rjnoe

dee@cca.UUCP (Donald Eastlake) (09/20/83)

I am beginning to think that the three inertial navagation systems
inputs were ganged, they wer used to calculate the distance to Seoul,
and the enter button was pushed rather than clear when Seoul's
coordiantes were being displayed, thus the airliner made a bee line to
Seoul.  This assumes that the crew were ignoring almost all the standard
double check procedures but people sometimes do that sort of thing.
	+	Donald E. Eastlake, III
	ARPA:	dee@CCA-UNIX		usenet:	{decvax,linus}!cca!dee

pocha@denelcor.UUCP (09/21/83)

This message is empty.

julian@osu-dbs.UUCP (Julian Gomez) (10/05/83)

The inertial nav systems are not ganged; they have to be programmed
independently. Procedure calls for different crew members to do each
one, to minimize possibility of a repeated error; this procedure is
sometimes (often?) bypassed.

Should this discussion be in net.aviation? It seems to be political
rather than contributing to aviation.