TAW@S1-A@sri-unix (10/20/82)
From: Tom Wadlow <TAW at S1-A> Date: Tuesday, 19 October 1982 11:49-EDT From: Jon Webb <Webb at Cmu-20c> Subject: I still think we're alone It seems to me the simplest explanation consistent with the available evidence is that there is no other intelligent civilization in the galaxy. Of course we can propose that there are such civilizations, but we don't see them for various reasons, but that's not scientific, it's based on an emotional response. (Anything can be explained in many ways, but in science we try to choose the simplest way). Tipler's argument shows that the distances between stars impose no barrier to intelligent civlizations being aware of each other. Given that, and the fact that we observe no evidence of other intelligent civilizations, we must conclude that there are no other intelligent civilizations in the galaxy. It seems to me that scientific method would lead us to to the following conclusions about other civilizations: 1) We have seen only one example of intelligence (ourselves). 2) We have studied only one solar system containing a habitable planet for Life-As-We-Know-It. 3) Study of subcultures within our own civilization show us that our estimation of why other cultures do things is usually wrong. 4) We have looked for evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence for a very short time and in a very limited portion of the sky. Therefore: We really don't know, and we can't know until we get more data. Cheers, --Tom
mcewan (10/24/82)
#R:sri-unix:-390500:uiucdcs:12700015:000:248 uiucdcs!mcewan Oct 23 20:32:00 1982 Lets be mathematical about this: How many intelligent species do we know of? At least one. How many star systems have we investigated? One (not too thoroughly). So the expected value for number of intelligent species found per star system >= 1!
REM@MIT-MC@sri-unix (10/28/82)
From: Robert Elton Maas <REM at MIT-MC> There's one problem with your estimate of 1 intelligent species per star system (ignoring the obvious problem that at least three other species on Earth are also intelligent although not technological, as I mentionned a couple times before) -- Your data is very biased. Suppose a survey were conducted in every star system in the Galaxy, asking whether an intelligent species existed there? Exactly one survey sheet would be turned in, after all who would turn it in on the other systems? The reason this planet we're on is suitable for life and not the others in our system, instead of the other way around with Venus nice and Earth unbearable, is because if this planet weren't habitable we wouldn't be here contemplating the question. Your survey with Earth as the only place surveyed is very biased. You've picked a place where intelligent life exists, to conduct the survey, rather than a random place in the Galaxy. Any way you look at it, the expected value won't be 1 until we have picked a few RANDOM star systems out there, not our own, and found them all to be inhabited with intelligent life.
mcdaniel (10/30/82)
#R:sri-unix:-390500:uiucdcs:12700017:000:267
uiucdcs!mcdaniel Oct 29 21:48:00 1982
Three other intelligent species on Terra? Where's your proof?
I think others will be interested, too.
A curious person:
Tim McDaniel
({decvax or ucbvax or harpo}!pur-ee!uiucdcs!mcdaniel)