[net.space] Prediction of Cosmos Crash Time

sdo (02/01/83)

I read one prediction the day before the crash which narrowed the
time to between 6:00 pm and 8:17 am the next day.  What's with this
8:17 stuff??  How can you not know an answer but still predict one
side of the range to the exact minute?

			Scott Orshan
			Bell Labs Piscataway
			201-981-3064
			houxm!u1100a!sdo

karn (02/01/83)

I suspect that the 8:17 number wasn't exactly as significant as the number
of "significant digits" implies.  One scenario: the orbital period at
that point is 85.7 minutes, a likely figure.  An "official source" says
re-entry will probably occur "sometime in the next ten orbits or so".

A journalist multiplies 85.7 by 10 and comes up with 14 hours, 17
minutes.  Voila!

Phil