[net.space] Stabilizing/Destabilizing Weapons

wolit (04/22/83)

Basically, a weapon is stabilizing (i.e., tending to reduce the
likelihood of war) if it deters the enemy from attacking you 
without threatening his ability to deter you from attacking him.
A weapon is destabilizing otherwise, since if the enemy is not
deterred, he may attack you, and if he thinks his deterrence is
threated, he may find it more attractive to attack now.

MIRVs, by themselves, are somewhat destabilizing, since (assuming both
sides have about the same number of launchers) they allow their
possessors to aim more than one warhead at each of the enemy's
launchers, which increases the threat to his deterrence.  If each MIRV
warhead is given an improved yield-accuracy, the threat is
intensified.  Finally, simply OWNING land-based ICBMs is destabilizing
IF the other side has accurate/powerful MIRVs, since (because their
location is fixed and well-known), YOUR deterrence is threatened
(making YOU more likely to shoot first).  The MX loses on all these
counts.

	Jan Wolitzky