[net.space] Cost of a space program

andy@aids-unix@sri-unix.UUCP (07/21/83)

From:  Andy Cromarty <andy@aids-unix>

   Has anyone ever really considered just how expensive space exploration
   really is?  [From <TMCGUINNESS@USC-ISIE>]

 There are a variety of reasons for pursuing space exploration.  Notable
among them: Many people believe that space may be the only hope for
continuance of the species (assuming that's a desirable thing) because
of the high risk to racial survival we impose upon ourselves through
everything from population growth to the possibility of nuclear war.
Perhaps a reasonable counter-question is, "Have you considered the cost
of NOT exploring space?".

   I'm not against the expenditures of funds for military space
   programs, or for  things like Space Telescope or IRAS but these
   projects all represent a sort of Big Think that will keep space as
   an area where you place sensors or weapons rather than an area for
   resource exploitation or human development.

 It's important to distinguish between what we want and how we can get it.
Probably most space exploration advocates (and certainly all the non-military
ones I personally know) are interested seeing peaceful exploration and,
usually, colonization and "development" of space -- in other words,
"resource exploitation or human development".
 The people with the money to fund these ventures, however, have a
rather different list of priorities.  Since (all our collective flaming
notwithstanding) the viability of commercial uses of space is not as yet
established, the fast path to space development would seem to be through
governmental (including military) money.  Whether or not one approves of
such an approach to funding, it has historically been the case that
government tends to absorb development costs for projects that seem worthwhile
but are too large or high-risk to attract commercial capital.  (Trivial
example: I believe that the Wright brothers were partly funded by the
U.S. Army.)

   ...what is the maximum percentage probability of fatal accident that
   you would accept to live on an L-5 colony or participate in a manned
   lunar base?

 This would seem to be a red herring.  We needn't make the decision for
anyone other than ourselves, and I would certainly go given the degree
of risk I would expect to encounter in, say, a two-year-old lunar colony.
The problem is not (and has never been) finding volunteers willing to
accept the risk; it has been finding the funding for those willing to
undertake the risk.

   trying to temper hope with pragmatism,		asc