CARBUCKLE@UMKCVAX1.BITNET (Valentine M. Smith) (02/12/90)
Saw G. Gerasimov on one of the TV news shows this morning(Brinkley?). A slick character, who speaks very good English and has a sly sense of humor and a good use of American idioms. Asked about Gorbachev's survival,"He's firmly in the saddle for some years to come." He adroitly ducked Sam Donaldson's query(must have been Brinkley)about whether Gorbachev would face the electorate himself as a Presidential candidate, saying that Gorby had been elected in a semi-free election and had a "taste" of what it would like to face a direct election, right down to having an opponent. Gerasimov very slickly avoided the fact that Gorbachev's "opponent" in that Supreme Soviet election was but a token rival of no consequence. When asked about the secessionist law promised some weeks ago to Lithuania, Gerasimov again ducked a direct response, pointing out instead other places in the world that such movements existed-the Irish struggle, Kashmir in India, the Basques in Spain, the French in Canada. On a united Germany, he said "Germans to decide on whether to reunite." The Soviets do have "security and psychological concerns about Germany's past." He seemed to feel that further talks will go on before any reunification occurs, and on the issues of troop withdrawals from either side. Gerasimov was evasive on whether Germany united should be neutral or NATO-orientated, but seemed to indicate the Soviets had an interest in maintaining a military presence in Europe, as Bush has indicated the US wants to do. George Will tried to pin Gerasimov down on whether Yeltsin could or would beat him in a direct Presidential election. Genadi parried with the fact that the March 4th elections are "local," not Presidential, and that this issue is not going to be faced for awhile. Though Gorbachev is popular in the Western capitols, especially London and Washington, he is not so popular with Dame Ivanova Housewife in the Soviet Union. David Brinkley pointed out correctly that the Soviets continue to face a critical food shortage problem. Donaldson pointed out to Will that Yeltsin might find it very difficult to win an election if there were chaos, Carter pointed out that if chaos were the order, then the Russian people would look to the strongest source of order, ie Gorbachev. Will tried to compare Gorbachev to Louis XVI, and that the conditions in which Louis fell, a Napoleon was born, implying that Yeltsin could be a modern day example of the Corsican unknown rising to the throne. I think he's full of crap. Carter seemed the most sensible. This"revolution" started from the top, and what will have to happen first is a different allocation of resources so everyone can eat, that the "Russian housewife" is many different people not necessarily looking to revolt. Sec. of State Baker in Bulgaria yesterday, the highest US official to ever visit that country. He hopes, and said in Sofia, that Bulgaria can have free, multi-party elections "soon." Today, he had bounced to Bucharest, promising $80 million in reconstruction aid, but calling for democracy and cooperaation within the framework of the system. Later, I observed Zbigniew Brzezinski interviewed, and praised for being a "prophet" by I believe Sam Donaldson. I'm inclined to think he's been a wishful thinker hoping the Russian state would break up, not necessarily an accurate prognosticator, as Hodding Carter pointed out a little later. Zbig felt, hedging his bets, that the the changes coming could go either way, peacefully or violently. If peacefully, he agrees with my earlier scenario about a Russian confederation, though thinking that the at the least, perhaps the Balts will secede from the current "union." If violent change occurs, a period of chaos would occur. He feels the Great Russians would attempt to hold as much of the old empire together as possible, resisted by the other areas primarily dominated by non-Russians. He felt the reunification of Germany would happen in spite or against us if we stood in its way. As long as Western troops stay in Europe, so will the Soviets. I'll buy that, I cannot imagine either side giving an inch they don't have to at this point. The fears that Poland and France have are understandable, he felt, though he also stated that the West and former opponents of Germany should not set up a "self-fulfilling prophecy" and conjure up Germany as demon. He, and I, believe Kohl equivocated greatly about German borders as the Wall came tumbling down, but that Kohl has "gotten clearer" and those "claims" about old borders are being abandoned. What will probably happen is the German borders that exist de facto for the two Germanies at present will be the de jure borders of a new Germany, be that whenever. He does not see Germany rising to make war on Europe again. I think such is unlikely also, the economic disruption would be too great for a Europe at present just trying to decide what identity to have now, with the six Comecon countries loose from their old ties and much up in the air. I see Germany reuniting, probably quicker than any realize, and with US and Soviet support. The alliance question will take longer to resolve, both sides have difficulties with large numbers of troops coming home, and both seem to feel some segment of Europe will want them to keep troops in. Plus the Comecon/EEC question complicates the NATO/WArsaw Pact question; in the end, both may have to be resolved together. Lastly, I finally have ssen a launch from Baikanour as it was happening, as did four American astronauts. Some kind of lab, and two astronauts were launched to Mir, the Russian space station. This mission was actually a commercial venture, a most interesting direction for the Soviet program to be going in. Now, if only the US had a heavy launch vehicle...Oh well, all that stuff will come. I can only hope that the summit in June brings up more than the current projected agenda.