WOLFLE@VTVM2.BITNET (Lee Wolfle) (02/21/90)
========================================================================= On: Sat, 03 Feb 90 13:39:43 MST From: Robert Ashcraft <IACRFA@ASUACAD.BITNET> Subject: Faculty Shortages Asked: >The January 17, 1990 issue of The Chronicle of Higher Education contained an ar >ticle by John H. D'Arms titled, "Universities Must Lead The Effort to Avert Imp >ending National Shortages of Ph.D.'s." The projected faculty shortages seem pa >rticularly acute in the sciences, as we all know. Does anyone in EDPOLYAN know >of other recent articles or studies which document this phenomenon. I am inte >rested in compiling some information on this issue. Thank you! Via snail-mail, also known as, U.S. Postal Service, Dael Wolfle, Professor of Public Affairs at the University of Washington, Seattle, makes the following contribution: ==========================Original Mail Follows========================== The game of predicting whether there will be a surplus of a shortage of Ph.D.s at some future time, or new entrants to the labor market at other degree levels, is one of comparing statistics on expected job openings and expected new graduates. All of the prognosticators playing that game depend primarily on the U.S. Office of Education and the National Research Council's Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel for figures on numbers of Ph.D.s, and on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and several special studies for estimates of future job openings, and on NSF for supply-demand projections. All of those figures have to be examined in some detail for the totals include several different trends. At the Ph.D. level, one of the most significant in science and engineering is the fact that the percentage of foreign nationals getting such degrees is increasing and the percentage of American men is decreasing. Major trends that affect the projections include the fact that we have passed the baby boom period; the following years of smaller cohorts is moving through the educational ladder; and there will be a period of larger cohorts to follow. To be specific, from 1974 to 1982 the annual number of 18 year olds ranged from about 4.1 to 4.3 million. From 1990 to 1997 the range will be from 3.2 to 3.5, so for the immediate future we will have smaller college entering classes. Another trend is in faculty members' ages. Faculties had to expand substantially to accomodate the baby boom crowd. Now we have to look forward to many retirements at about the same time. Here are some sources you may find useful: Congress of the United States, Office of Technology Assessment, *Educating Scientists and Engineers: Grade School to Grad School*, 1988. Congress of the United States, Office of Technology Assessment, *Demographic Trends and the Scientific and Engineering Work Force*, A Technical Memorandum, 1985. U.S. Department of Education, Office of Educational Research and Improvement, NCES 89-648, *Projection of Education Statistics to 2000*, December, 1989. Another compilation of data you want to know about is in a recent ETS publication: Jerilee Grandy, *Trends in SAT Scores and Other Characteristics of Examinees Planning to Majoring in Mathematics, Science, or Engineering*, 1989. SAT scores is the reason for the publication, but there is also data about the fields in which students taking the SAT plan to major. One final publication that does not give any figures or projections but that is a good source of information about the current sources of data (with good descriptions of each such program) on education and utilization, and reommendations for improvement and better coordination among the several sources on their definitions, methods of counting, etc., is National Academy of Engineering, *Engineering Personnel Data Needs for 1990s*, Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1988. (I [i.e., Dael Wolfle] was a member of the committee overseeing the preparation of this report.) I forgot to mention earlier a social trend of importance. In the middle of the 1960s about 10 or 12 percent of all B.S. graduates expected to go on to the doctorate. In the middle 1970s that percentage had declined to 5 or 6. I do not know what it is now, but it is not up the 1960s level, although I think it is a bit higher than in the 1970s. The percentage actually getting Ph.D.s is about 5 percent. Have I given you enough on this topic? If you have other questions I'll see what I can do to answer them. ========================End of Snail Mail=============================== If I can pass along any further questions, please let me know. Lee Wolfle