Chris Novy - WA9V <AXVSCCN%UICVMC.bitnet@ugw.utcs.utoronto.ca> (02/09/90)
ZCZC MKCSWODY1
ACUS1 KMKC 091810
MKC AC 091900
Convective Outlook...reference AFOS NMCGPH94O
Valid 091900 - 101200Z
Reference Weather Watch number 19 valid until 22Z and Weather Watch
number 20 until 00Z.
There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of
eastern Texas...southern Arkansas... western Mississippi...and northern
and central Louisiana. The area is to the right of a line from
College Station, TX..30 west Tyler, TX..50 north Tyler, TX..Hot Springs, AR
Little Rock, AR..Greenwood, MS..20 east Jackson, MS..Mccomb, MS
Lake Charles, LA..Houston, TX..College Station, TX.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms to the right of a line
from Galveston, TX..Austin, TX..Stephenville, TX..Paris, TX 40 north
Little Rock, AR..Jonesboro, AR..Chattanooga, TN..Atlanta, GA..Tyndall AFB, FL.
General thunderstorms to right of line from Corpus Christi, TX
San Antonio, TX..Brownwood, TX..Sheppard AFB, TX..Ardmore, OK..Indianapolis, IN
Akron Canton, OH..Nantucket, MA..continue..Daytona Beach, FL..60 south-
southeast Cross City, FL.
Cold frontal boundary extending from central Texas north-eastward
through north-eastern Arkansas will be focus for continued severe
thunderstorm development through rest of period. Airmass south of
boundary is very unstable with minimum lifted indicies between minus 6
and 8. Latest Little Rock radar loop indicates bow echo north of Little
Rock, AR moving eastward indicating likelihood of damaging winds and
large hail moving across north central/central Arkansas counties.
Nested Grid Model forecasts strong middle level jet stream of 70kt
moving from Del Rio, TX area into central Texas by 00Z with associated
dry punch providing favorable moist contrast for continued severe
thunderstorm development. Severe activity now developing over central
Texas may be a reflection of left front quadrant of jet stream already
moving into region. Severe activity expected to be most concentrated
this afternoon and evening from east central Texas into southern half
Arkansas/northern half Louisiana where thermodynamics and juxtapostion
of 500mb/850mb jets are most favorable. Severe activity expected to
spread eastward into Mississippi and remainder of Louisiana later this
evening as low level jet stream maximum shfts eastward and maintains
strong low level convergence. Isolated severe thunderstorms may reach
Alabama towards end of period.
..July.. 02/09/90
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ZCZC MKCSWODY2
ACUS2 KMKC 091722
MKC DY2 091800
2nd day Severe Outlook..reference AFOS NMCGPH98O
Valid 101200 - 111200Z ..general thunderstorm forecast not included..
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms to the right of a line from 60
south-southwest New Orleans, LA..20 west Lakefront Arpt, LA..Laurel, MS
Atlanta, GA..Columbia, SC..Myrtle Beach AFB, SC..continue..Daytona Beach, FL
St Petersburg, FL.
Shortwave trough moving into lower Mississippi Valley at beginning of
period expected to stretch out with strongest middle/upper level flow on
east side of trough. Associated cold frontal boundary will continue
east-southeastward movement with primary surface low initially over
southeast Louisiana moving eastward to southern South Carolina by end of
period. Low will help focus low level convergence and enhance
convective development. Severe thunderstorms may be ocurring at
beginning of period on nose of middle level dry punch poking into
southeast Louisiana. Activity should then spread eastward with
individual cells racing north-eastward under 70kt plus southwesterly
middle level flow. Nested Grid Model forecasts significant cooling at
500mb between 24 and 36 hours resulting in minimum lifted indicies
around minus 8 in warm sector from southeast Alabama to central Georgia.
If amount of cooling forecast by Nested Grid Model materlizes
significant severe thunderstorm activity may develop by afternoon from
southern Alabama to central/southern Georgia.
..July.. 02/09/90
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Chris Novy - WA9V BITNET: axvsccn@uicvmc
Southern Illinois Univ. Internet: axvsccn@uicvmc.aiss.uiuc.edu
Morris Library - Systems Packet: wa9v@wd9ebq FAX: (618) 453-8109
Carbondale, IL 62901-6632 Phone: (618) 453-1683 or (618) 457-6149
ICBM: 37.43N 89.12W
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