[list.storm-l] Severe WX Outlook and Tornado Stats

Chris Novy - WA9V <AXVSCCN@UICVMC.bitnet> (02/21/90)

ZCZC MKCSWODY1
ACUS1 KMKC 211448
MKC AC 211500

Convective Outlook...reference AFOS NMCGPH94O

Valid 211500 - 221200Z

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms to the right of a line
from 20 short Palacios, TX..College Station, TX..Longview, TX 30 north
Monroe, LA..Meridian, MS..Pensacola, FL.

General thunderstorms are forecast to the right of a line from
Brownsville, TX..Victoria, TX..Dallas, TX..Fayetteville, AR..Salem, IL
Bloomington, IN..Lexington, KY..Savannah, GA.

Upper low over northwestern Texas expected to continue moving eastward
as negative tilt trough extending south-southeastward into north-eastern
Mexico swings north-eastward across western Gulf Coast during period.
Squall line producing gusty surface winds has surged eastward across
south central Texas and is currently moving into coastal waters east of
Corpus Christi, TX and Brownsville, TX.  Latest surface analysis
suggests surface low is located just off middle Texas coast with warm
front extending eastward across northern Gulf.  Surface low expected to
move north-northeastward into southeastern Texas later this afternoon
and continue into southern Arkansas by end of period...with warm front
gradually lifting inland across lower Mississippi Valley.  Wind fields
surface and aloft prognosticated to strengthen as shortwave trough
rotates across northwestern Gulf region providing increasingly favorable
dynamic environment for severe thunderstorm development.  Convection
moving northward along middle Texas coast and over offshore waters is
ahead of advancing middle level dry intrusion and will be monitored
closely for signs of intensification.  Activity expected to spread
north-eastward tonight across remainder Louisiana..southern Mississippi
and extreme southwestern Alabama with a few cells likely reaching severe
levels.

.Weiss.. 02/21/90
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ZCZC MKCSTAMTS
WWUS61 KMKC 211332
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER TABULATION
MONTH      NUMBER OF TORNADOES                         DEATHS          KILLERS
     ....1990....   ...1989...  ...1988...
     PRELIM  FINAL   RUFF SMTH  RUFF SMTH   87 NORM  90 89 88  87 NORM  90 89
JAN    10     XX      17   14    19   17     6   14   0  0  5   0   3    0  0
FEB    80     XX      26   18     1    4    19   20   0  0  0   6   5    0  0
MAR    XX     XX      61   43    29   28    38   52   X  1  1   1   8    X  1
APR   XXX     XX     118   82    57   58    20  106   X  0  4   1  34    X  0
MAY   XXX    XXX     300  232   193  132   128  173   X  9  3  31  15    X  5
JUN   XXX    XXX     277  251    79   63   132  159   X  5  0   2   6    X  2
JUL    XX     XX      76   59    93  103   163   88   X  0  0   0   1    X  0
AUG    XX     XX      41   36    71   60    63   61   X  0  2   1   2    X  0
SEP    XX     XX      34   27    86   76    19   42   X  0  1   0   1    X  0
OCT    XX     XX      24   29    18   19     0   24   X  2  0   0   2    X  1
NOV    XX     XX      59   54   147  121    54   27   X 31 15  11   3    X  3
DEC    XX     XX       0    3    13   20    14   20   X  0  1   6   2    X  0
      ........................................................................
TOTAL  90    XXX    1033  848   806  701   656  786  XX 48 32  59  82   XX 12
RUFF THRU FEB 20..  90 VS  30 IN 1989             CURRENT 0730C FEB 21 1990
SMOOTH THRU DEC 1989... 848 VS 701 IN 1988 VS 778 NORM
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Chris Novy - WA9V               BITNET: axvsccn@uicvmc
Southern Illinois Univ.       Internet: axvsccn@uicvmc.aiss.uiuc.edu
Morris Library - Systems        Packet: wa9v@wd9ebq    FAX: (618) 453-8109
Carbondale, IL  62901-6632       Phone: (618) 453-1683  or  (618) 457-6149
                                  ICBM: 37.43N  89.12W
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