Chris Novy - WA9V <AXVSCCN@UICVMC.bitnet> (02/21/90)
ZCZC MKCSWODY1 ACUS1 KMKC 211448 MKC AC 211500 Convective Outlook...reference AFOS NMCGPH94O Valid 211500 - 221200Z There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms to the right of a line from 20 short Palacios, TX..College Station, TX..Longview, TX 30 north Monroe, LA..Meridian, MS..Pensacola, FL. General thunderstorms are forecast to the right of a line from Brownsville, TX..Victoria, TX..Dallas, TX..Fayetteville, AR..Salem, IL Bloomington, IN..Lexington, KY..Savannah, GA. Upper low over northwestern Texas expected to continue moving eastward as negative tilt trough extending south-southeastward into north-eastern Mexico swings north-eastward across western Gulf Coast during period. Squall line producing gusty surface winds has surged eastward across south central Texas and is currently moving into coastal waters east of Corpus Christi, TX and Brownsville, TX. Latest surface analysis suggests surface low is located just off middle Texas coast with warm front extending eastward across northern Gulf. Surface low expected to move north-northeastward into southeastern Texas later this afternoon and continue into southern Arkansas by end of period...with warm front gradually lifting inland across lower Mississippi Valley. Wind fields surface and aloft prognosticated to strengthen as shortwave trough rotates across northwestern Gulf region providing increasingly favorable dynamic environment for severe thunderstorm development. Convection moving northward along middle Texas coast and over offshore waters is ahead of advancing middle level dry intrusion and will be monitored closely for signs of intensification. Activity expected to spread north-eastward tonight across remainder Louisiana..southern Mississippi and extreme southwestern Alabama with a few cells likely reaching severe levels. .Weiss.. 02/21/90 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZCZC MKCSTAMTS WWUS61 KMKC 211332 NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER TABULATION MONTH NUMBER OF TORNADOES DEATHS KILLERS ....1990.... ...1989... ...1988... PRELIM FINAL RUFF SMTH RUFF SMTH 87 NORM 90 89 88 87 NORM 90 89 JAN 10 XX 17 14 19 17 6 14 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 FEB 80 XX 26 18 1 4 19 20 0 0 0 6 5 0 0 MAR XX XX 61 43 29 28 38 52 X 1 1 1 8 X 1 APR XXX XX 118 82 57 58 20 106 X 0 4 1 34 X 0 MAY XXX XXX 300 232 193 132 128 173 X 9 3 31 15 X 5 JUN XXX XXX 277 251 79 63 132 159 X 5 0 2 6 X 2 JUL XX XX 76 59 93 103 163 88 X 0 0 0 1 X 0 AUG XX XX 41 36 71 60 63 61 X 0 2 1 2 X 0 SEP XX XX 34 27 86 76 19 42 X 0 1 0 1 X 0 OCT XX XX 24 29 18 19 0 24 X 2 0 0 2 X 1 NOV XX XX 59 54 147 121 54 27 X 31 15 11 3 X 3 DEC XX XX 0 3 13 20 14 20 X 0 1 6 2 X 0 ........................................................................ TOTAL 90 XXX 1033 848 806 701 656 786 XX 48 32 59 82 XX 12 RUFF THRU FEB 20.. 90 VS 30 IN 1989 CURRENT 0730C FEB 21 1990 SMOOTH THRU DEC 1989... 848 VS 701 IN 1988 VS 778 NORM --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Chris Novy - WA9V BITNET: axvsccn@uicvmc Southern Illinois Univ. Internet: axvsccn@uicvmc.aiss.uiuc.edu Morris Library - Systems Packet: wa9v@wd9ebq FAX: (618) 453-8109 Carbondale, IL 62901-6632 Phone: (618) 453-1683 or (618) 457-6149 ICBM: 37.43N 89.12W ---------------------------------------------------------------------------