Chris Novy - WA9V <AXVSCCN@UICVMC.bitnet> (02/21/90)
ZCZC NMCQPFERD
FOUS30 KWBC 211451
NMC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...REFERENCE AFOS GRAPHIC 94E
Valid February 211200 to 221200
Rainfall expected to exceed flash flood guidance values to right of a
line from Palacios, TX..College Station, TX..Tyler, TX..Little Rock, AR
Memphis, TN..Tupelo, MS..Mobile, AL..and should exceed five inches to
right of a line from Galveston, TX..20 north Houston, TX..Ft. Polk AAF, LA
20 north Baton Rouge, LA..New Orleans, LA..(coordinates) 29 North 90 West.
Little change in thinking from earlier discussion. A heavy rainfall
event is imminent for the western Gulf states next 24 hours. Slow
moving upper low has set stage for northward advection of Gulf moisture
in strong deep southerly flow. Today's Limited Fine Mesh has trended a
little farther north with its track of the 500 millibar low but is just
as slow through 24 hours with its eastward movemnt. Latest analysis
shows a potent vorticity south of the main upper low that should be
rotating north-eastward during the period. Last nites Nested Grid Model
forecast 850 winds of 55 knots over Lake Charles, LA at 00Z tonite.
This strong low level inflow should provide strong overrunning. Threat
area is also in area of strong upper level diffluence...another aid to
upward vertical velocities. In-house studies suggest rainfall in excess
of 5 inches is good bet somewhere vicinity the upper Texas Coast or
Louisiana. Soggy conditions across the lower Mississippi Valley make
this a dangerous situation with a significant threat of serious
flooding. Position of Limited Fine Mesh surface low and the strong
northward transport of moisture suggest that even north of depicted
threat area...heavy rain with some run off problems could occur. Junker
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Chris Novy - WA9V BITNET: axvsccn@uicvmc
Southern Illinois Univ. Internet: axvsccn@uicvmc.aiss.uiuc.edu
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