Chris Novy - WA9V <AXVSCCN@UICVMC.bitnet> (02/23/90)
ZCZC MKCSWODY1
ACUS1 KMKC 231455
MKC AC 231500
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REFERENCE AFOS NMCGPH94O
Valid 231500 - 241200Z
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today to the right of a
line from Ft. Myers, FL..Vero Beach, FL.
Thunderstorms may approach severe limits to the right of a line from
Wilmington, NC..Raleigh-Durham, NC..Charlottesville, VA..Wash-Dulles, VA
Philadelphia, PA..10 east Lakehurst NAS, NJ.
General thunderstorms are forecast to the right of a line from
Tallahassee, FL..Hickory, NC..Altoona, PA..Williamsport, PA..Pittsfield, MA
Boston, MA.
Vigorous upper trough expected to continue moving eastward during period
with primary vorticity maximum moving across southeastern states and
surface cold front moving off Atlantic Coast. Airmass through much of
eastern seaboard has been modified by earlier convection resulting in
moderate instability being restricted to southern Florida ahead of
advancing squall line. This convection expected to continue tracking
east-southeastward into very warm moist airmass as gusty southerly surface
winds continue influx of tropical moisture. Presence of middle level dry
air and moderate low level shear suggests isolated thunderstorms may
briefly reach severe levels through this afternoon... with activity likely
diminishing after 00Z.
Further north airmass is expected to be only marginally unstable at best
today... aided by cold advection aloft as apparent shortwave trough rotates
north-eastward toward middle Atlantic region. A few thunderstorms expected
to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of advancing cold front with
convection moving rapidly north-eastward along band of very strong winds
aloft that will shift eastward across Appalacians. Rapid cell movement and
potential downward transfer of middle level momentum suggest possibility of
gusty surface winds accompanying convection from eastern North Carolina
northward across Deleware/Maryland/Virginia into southern New Jersey.
.Weiss.. 02/23/90
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ZCZC NFDQPFHSD
FOUS11 KWBC 231531
NMC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...REFERENCE AFOS GRAPHIC 93S
Valid February 231800 to 240600 1990
Although new Limited Fine Mesh shows less surface wave development than
earlier near southern New Englnd...believe it may be a bit underdone.
Towards end of period expect there may be enough moisture inflow from the
northeast developing around a southern New Englnd surface system to develop
light to moderate snows in central New Englnd. Accumulations of two inches
with isolated four inch amounts could develop.
New Limited Fine Mesh slows down short/wave digging southeastward towards
the Great Lakes. Towards end of period expect some light snows to reach
northwestern portions of lakes region. Locally heavy lake effect snows may
develop in Upper Michigan by this time...but better amounts might wait till
after 06Z.
Outlook...240600 to 241800. Still expect enough surface development off New
Englnd coast to produce some moderate to heavy snow amounts in northern New
Englnd.
Lindner
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ZCZC NMCQPFERD
FOUS30 KWBC 231510
NMC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Valid February 231500 to 241200 1990
Less impressed with heavy rain potential in southern New Englnd. Although
expecting a bit more surface development than shown by new Limited Fine
Mesh...dont believe there will be enough inflow and warm advection
returning to area to produce very heavy rains. Best rains will occur late
tonight...with amounts at this time expected to be less than one inch.
Convection should continue along frontal system in florida today as upper
trough and short/wave move toward area. During tonight...the trough will
swing across the state...pushing the activity southeastward off the coast.
Isolated 3 hour rainfalls of two inches can be expected in south central
Florida.
Lindner
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Chris Novy - WA9V BITNET: axvsccn@uicvmc
Southern Illinois Univ. Internet: axvsccn@uicvmc.aiss.uiuc.edu
Morris Library - Systems Packet: wa9v@wd9ebq FAX: (618) 453-8109
Carbondale, IL 62901-6632 Phone: (618) 453-1683 or (618) 457-6149
ICBM: 37.43N 89.12W
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