MCGRATH@OZ.AI.MIT.EDU ("Jim McGrath") (01/04/86)
> From: decvax!bellcore!petrus!karn@ucbvax.berkeley.edu (Phil R. Karn) > > > Yes, the USSR has test fired an anti-satallite weapon. > > > There is still some speculation that Seasat 1 was knocked out > > > by such a weapon.... > > > A similar contest in the early part of this century resulted in > > world war 1. > > Very true.... Not to defend arms races per se, but I do feel compelled to point out that the Anglo-German arms race wound down a couple of years before the outbreak of war. While the "causes" of WWI in any deep sense will be debated forever, it is clear that they have more to do with a breakdown of the balance of power, fossilized alliance systems, and military doctrine that called for extensive national mobilization AND some form of preemption or quick war. Ultimately the rise of Germany can be said to have caused the war in some deeper sense. The upshot is that wars are not technologically impelled. No war has ever occurred due to pure accident or as the pure result of an arms race. (This, and all policy oriented SDI messages, should probably move to ARMS-D.) Jim -------