CARBUCKLE@UMKCVAX1 (Valentine M. Smith) (02/08/90)
Sorry I missed you all yesterday, have been ill, syill am, but am tottering about today. USSR- The media is now calling the changes in the Soviet Union "The Second Russian Revolution", especially after the Central Committee adopted the Gorbachev changes to the party by a vote of 249-1, with one abstention. Interestingly, the one vote cast against the program was that of Boris Yeltsin, the former CP chief in Moscow, on the grounds that the changes don't go far enough! This morning at 0930, Yacolev(?) was supposed to hold a press conference to explain what actually got decided; as I was at school when this happened, I'll have to report on this later today. One thing that has apparently come out of this immediately is that the Party Congress originally scheduled for October now may happen as early as June, maybe July. Another is that apparently the post of General Secretary of the party is to be changed to a chairman and two deputies, and their role diminished in the future. A third change will be a "democratically elected" President, instead of the Supreme Soviet ratifying the choice of the party for President. One of the ideologists of the Central Committee, Shislan, suggested yesterday that a multi-party system already exists in the USSR, what this CC plenum is doing is accepting reality. A US Soviet expert, Olcutt, suggested this morning that in the Baltics, such a system already legally exists. Gerasimov said yesterday that "if you can't beat them, join them," in reference to the demands for a multi-party system. Shislin also said yesterday that the "speed of the changes has been overwhelming." In Volgograd, Smolensk, and Sverdlov, the party officials have quit en masse, or been removed by Moscow. One other change coming from the CC meeting is the formal removal of Article 6 of the Soviet constitution, which was what empowered the CP as the sole legal party in the USSR. Another apparently obvious matter will be massive changes in who is on the Central Committee. 61% of the members are past retirement age, and several were put on the CC by Stalin, who's been dead 37 years. Several people said that the party leadership needs "new young blood." I suspect they'll get such real soon. The Baltics- A Latvian leader of the Popular Front there, Janis Jurken, said yesterday that "Communism has polluted the economy of the nation, and totaliarianism has polluted the political identity of the nation." He also pointed out that the CP was losing members at a ferocious rate in Latvia. He is talking about a federation of the Balts, somewhat similar to Havel's idea about the Poles, Hungarians and Czechs. Earlier in these posts, i suggested that the whole of the Soviet Union needed to be in such a federation, with no "first among equals" like the system has operated in the past, actually the USSR has been first without equals. Albania- In answer to Theodore Manos question about Albania. 6 weeks ago, there were some demonstrations in the capital, quickly squelched by the military. No word since about their activities, nor any reaction to the Albanian disturbances in Yugoslavia. Nor has the Albanian gov't reacted to the Kosovo demands that those people be reunited with Albania. Yugoslavia- A riot in a small Kosovo town yesterday because a drunken Serbian policeman accosted a pregnant woman, killed a cow, and shot two teenagers in the legs. East Germany- The ruling council expanded its membership the day before yesterday by 8 members, now 17 of 36 members are CP people. They banned the right wing party of West Germany from participation in East German politics. Romania- A bitterly sad residue of the Ceausescu days is the report that 1 of three sick babies in Romania has AIDS, from using unchecked blood, and mutiple syringe use. Czechoslavkia- Elections are to occur in June. The US lifted yesterday some trade restrictions to the Czechs, who in turn agreed to cut back weapons making and exporting to places like Libya and Nicaragua. Talks are to begin today about removing Soviet troops as soon as possible, especially after a huge demonstration in Prague yesterday where the demonstrators kept saying, "Ivan must go!" Does this sound vaguely familiar? Apparently, earlier today, the Soviets "illegally" blew up a huge ammunition dump somewhere in Czech territory, started a bunch of forest fires. Why, or any other info, not yet available. Bulgaria- Yesterday, the Bulgarians abolished the secret police. Lastly, Secretary of State Baker of the US warned today that the Soviets could not go backward and expect US aid. "Legitimacy, not force, is the only way to ensure tranquility," he said. He also assured European nations that American troops would stay as long as the european powers wished. He is to meet with Gorbachev the day after tomorrow, Schverdnadze tomorrow. The Revolution hurtles onward, the changes have just begun, the next year promises to be highly intriguing vis-a-vis Soviet affairs.
CARBUCKLE@UMKCVAX1 (Valentine M. Smith) (02/08/90)
I have to hope these posts are not too boring to the HISTORY list, but as I see it, I'm commenting on history being made, which may be a poor approach for a historian, but usual for us journalist types. Fortunately, I do have a slight historical grounding in the area of Soviet affairs(see #12 in this series). This afternoon, I'd like to partially report on the CP press conference that finished about 1415 our time, I only got in on about 35 minutes. There were 6 ranking members of the party allowing themselves to be queried by the Western press about their actions! In my life(42 years), I cannot recall ever seeing more than a selected member of the Politburo face the press, and usually only with a prepared statement. There were 6 on this platform, of whom I saw four speak. Only two of the four were identified. Anatoly Lubyanov and Aleksandr Yakovlev, the latter alleged to be Gorbachev's strongest supporter on both the Central Committee and the politburo. One of the two unidentified is apparently an agricultural expert. Another on the platform was G. Gerasimov, who did no more than gesture to which reporter would be next. The main points decided by the Central Committee that i gleaned from the press conference- 1) A strong Presidency elected nationally. 2) All forms of land ownership permitted(though this was not spelled out clearly) 3) Accepted Lithuanian CP breakaway from USSR CP, but called for a cooling off period, "reconsideration", and one referred to the Lithuanian move as "dangerous" 4)Moved the Party Congress up to "the end of June, the beginning of July" 5)Strengened the judicial system 6)(most importantly) recommended that Article 6 of the Soviet Constitution guaranteeing CP dominancy be abolished. In addition, some intersting comments were made. Yacovlev-"Not the function of our party to permit or not permit other parties" in response to a question about permitting conservative parties when the CC plenum called for parties of "socialist choice." He also called the adopted program as "program of action," "a big step towards democracy." He said the German issue, whether a person could hold two posts at once, and specifics of other reforms not discussed at the plenum. He acknowledged that the USSR is in terrible shape economically and socially, these changes are moves to address those admitted difficulties. He admitted also that these changes were primarily caused by events in eastern Europe, not by any long-held plan. He said,"Let the people decide on an alternative to socialism." Both he and Lubyanov said all of these changes will have to be ratified by the Party Congress. Look for BIG debate there on all of these and a multitude of other changes. Yacolev said in regards to the Germanies- "We need to make sure our borders are safe, that there is no threat from Germany. We are for Germany in Europe, not a European Germany." The Germanies- Yesterday, it was announced the Federal Bank of West Germany and the State Bank of East Germany were negotiating on a joint currency. Ha! I suspect that all this will take awhile. Earlier today, I posted a comment to the 9Nov89-L list speculating on the Schvernadze proposal that the world vote(Huh?) on the reunification. I think this a European question, at the most the nations of Europe should decide, at the least-the US, the USSR, France, Great Britain, and the two Germanies. Somewhere in between might be a partial European referendum. I've not thought this out yet. The trade minister for West Germany warned that East Germans should abey coming to West Germany, as currently thee over 130,000 unemployed East Germans there. Lastly, I watched Marshall Shulman, Professor Emeritus at Columbia University's Harriman Institute interviewed this afternoon.(God, if Averill were alive! He'd delight in all this Soviet activity!) Some of his comments follow. "There will be a long period of continued struggle." "Two other questions that need dealing with are the nationalities question, and the state of the economy." "The Soviets have excluded the idea of the use of military force, such as in the case of Lithuania."(actually a paraphrase) "There will probably be an intermediate step(on land ownership), "some kind of leasing arrangement." On the multi-party idea-"The battle isn't over on this. some may drop out(of the CP) and form new party, others will form factions." He also felt that the Baker visit would be primarily to deal with the summit in June's details. On did he expect these changes?-"I did not expect this, did not think that changes we've seen would occur in my lifetime. After 44 years of watching the Soviet Union, I thought this would take much longer." He concluded, as do I until this evening, with, "Sometimes change comes like a glacier, sometimes like an avalanche.
RYLE@URVAX (Martin Ryle) (02/08/90)
Again, many thanks to V. for the running commentary. Even for those of us in Soviet history, it is tough to keep up with the whirlwind. Two additional items of importance. One is Sheveradnadze's proposal that the two Germanys unite WITHIN NATO. A most startling initiative, and one that I would have utterly discounted as a possibility. May be almost as striking as the move to repeal Art. 6. Zbigniew commented tonight that USSR surely faces ten years of chaos. Perhaps he is right, but his track record as a prognosticator has been dreadful over the past ten years. Seems he is a captive of his cold war scholarship. As the nationalities began to realize that there is no effective barrier to independence, and that the economic problems facing them on the other side of such a move are daunting, they may begin to consider whether federation on equal terms might not be advantageous. On the other hand, Moscow might think with some justification that the RSFSR might be better off were it to secede from the USSR. Martin Ryle Unviversity of Richmond, VA ryle@urvax.urich.edu
CARBUCKLE@UMKCVAX1 (Valentine M. Smith) (02/14/90)
From: VAX1::CARBUCKLE "Valentine M. Smith" 13-FEB-1990 11:38:30.46 To: @SOVIET CC: Subj: USSR(#40) As I am quite ill, and should not even be here, this will be brief, and perhaps later today, I'll be up for a followup. The question of Stalin's rapacious killing of all kinds of elements of his society is as Prof. Ryle suggests- his heirs had no more interest in disclosing his crimes than those he was destroying at the time. Breshnev had no desire to reveal this, Khruschev did only so that he could break THE cult of personality and solidify his own rule. Even now, despite the exquisite scholarship of both Solzhenitzin and Medvedev, there are huge gaps in what is known and what is concealed. There is no Freedom of Information Act in the Soviet Union. What if the survivors of all those crimes demanded redress? So the numbers remain obscured, and in the end result, whether this set of brutal acts is called genocide or purges or annihilation of any who opposed him, the numbers will remain a matter of debate. I suggested 25-30 million victims, 1924-53, excluding the war proper. Yet, I know the number could be as low as 10-15 million, or maybe as high as fifty million, depends a great deal on who you read. Sorry to go on about this, but the question has been discussed while I was off being ill yesterday. I suggest the Bush assertion that the unified Germany, whenever that occurs, must be a part of NATO is very short-sighted, as is the idea that the US and USSR can or will dictate that. Ditto on the number of troops either side can have in Europe, WHEREVER! I suggest ther best solution is NO troops of either side in Europe, how's that for radical thinking? IF NATO and WArsaw Pact are to survive, let them be manned by troops from the participant countries, and that's all. In Tadzhikistan, the numbers of dead and injured have reached 7 and 79 as of 0630 this morning, look for the numbers to rise. Yesterday, ABC reported that the Soviets were ready to talk with the Poles about troop withdrawals. I suggest that Bulgaria, Hungary and Czecoslavakia would like such talks just as urgently. Bulgaria's rival groups are really struggling with their future, and appear as of yet to be unable to work out any agreement. More on this tonight, I hope. Baker met with THIRTY FIVE opposition groups when he was there the other day. How can anyone arrive at a solution with so much factionalism? They allegedly told Baker, on aid to Bulgaria, "No money for the Communists!" There appears some hope that the US and USSR could normalize trade for the first time in fifty years. Intersting, too early to tell. Lastly, as I'm about to fall out, The Presidium testerday called for a strengthened Soviet Presidency, there was released the CPSU stance on private property, and there is rumored a movement in Moldavia to be free from the USSR. My notes ask the question, to go back to Romania or to be an independent nation?