dietz@SLB-DOLL.CSNET (Paul Dietz) (01/28/86)
What will happen next? Some predictions: The shuttle program is in very serious trouble, and stands a good chance of being transfered to the military or being cancelled entirely. Work will start immediately on a replacement vehicle, probably a smaller scramjet-based TAV. The Europeans will go ahead with Hermes and HOTOL. The space station will be postponed or suspended pending the development of a replacement vehicle. NASA may feel compelled to invest heavily in space robotics. NASA will probably survive, unless it comes out that NASA has been hushing up internal uneasiness about shuttle reliability. In that case the civilian space program is very likely dead. What a nightmare.
bobn@bmcg.UUCP (Bob Nebert) (01/29/86)
> What will happen next? Some predictions: > > The shuttle program is in very serious trouble, and stands a good > chance of being transfered to the military or being cancelled entirely. > Work will start immediately on a replacement vehicle, probably a smaller > scramjet-based TAV. The Europeans will go ahead with Hermes and HOTOL. > The space station will be postponed or suspended pending the development > of a replacement vehicle. NASA may feel compelled to invest heavily > in space robotics. > > NASA will probably survive, unless it comes out that NASA has been > hushing up internal uneasiness about shuttle reliability. In that case > the civilian space program is very likely dead. > > What a nightmare. WAIT A MINUTE!! Of course the explosion was tragic but before everybody runs out and makes wild predictions, take a second. This has been the first in-flight fatality. Given the COMPLEX equipment and varied experiments, not to mention the evolution of the spacecraft itself, I'm suprised it hasn't happen sooner. NOTE: I'M JUST AS HORRIFIED AS EVERYONE ELSE. If by your logic above, the first crash or explosion on a aircraft should have transfered the CAB (or whatever it was called back then) to military control. That's nonsense. It was a tragic event, but everyone hopefully will learn and get better by it. BTW NASA checks, rechecks and double rechecks all work. They have an excellent safety record and I have faith in future launches.
eugene@ames.UUCP (Eugene Miya) (01/30/86)
Officially we have a news blackout. The comments are my observations Paul Dietz writes: > What will happen next? Some predictions: > > The shuttle program is in very serious trouble, and stands a good > chance of being transfered to the military or being cancelled entirely. Serious trouble, yes. Cancelled, probably not. Military transfer? This has been suggested in the past. I doubt it. I suggest you are not familiar with the dynamics of civilian and military space and aeronautics. The military is not interested in civilian transport (FAA not equiped), nor planetary space, not civilian communications [*some generalization on this latter]. > Work will start immediately on a replacement vehicle, probably a smaller > scramjet-based TAV. > The Europeans will go ahead with Hermes and HOTOL. They would regardless. All in progress. Give the European and us some credit. > The space station will be postponed or suspended pending the development > of a replacement vehicle. NASA may feel compelled to invest heavily > in space robotics. Station: probably some delay, measured in years. I won't specuate on length, but we have estimates. We are "investing" in robotics right now. > NASA will probably survive, unless it comes out that NASA has been > hushing up internal uneasiness about shuttle reliability. In that case > the civilian space program is very likely dead. Gee, bury us before we are dead. > What a nightmare. Agreed. > From: Rem@IMSSS > In addition to obvious badness: > (1) TDRS lost, so we won't be having the around-the-clock tracking of > space missions like we were hoping to have; > (2) Our STS capacity is now down to 60%. Originally we needed 5 orbiters, > but the budget was cut and we had only 4, now we have only 3. > > One minor good point: > At least it didn't happen on the pad where the pad would have been destroyed > preventing further launches. However this may be moot if they spend two > years analyzing everything before doing anything. Overall a good analysis [payload, pad, etc.]. 3,4,5, 60%,75%, these are all just numbers. Estimates are unclear of real need. TDRSS is quite serious to NASA, we have one [TDRSS-C] more to go. Galileo was scheduled for Challenger. They are figuring a year delay [spoke to JPL friends yesterday, but maybe Doug, Ron, or Steve can say more.] No in orbit Halley observations [The Kuiper is flying at 41K feet]. Generally at Ames, there is a state of depression in some of the staff. Business is continuing in many quarters are usual. Please keep the "conspiracy theories" down. We are in the dark like everybody else. We have no "inside" information. Please understand that NASA has some information not for immediate release, but they want to verify leads, check plans, and reschedule things. Rumors only serve to feed vultures. --eugene miya NASA Ames Research Center {hplabs,ihnp4,dual,hao,decwrl,allegra}!ames!aurora!eugene eugene@ames-nas.ARPA
bl@hplabsb.UUCP (Bruce T. Lowerre) (02/01/86)
My feelings and some predictions: I feel sorrow for the six crew members. However, I feel pain for Crista McCuliffe. She was the surrogate space traveler for all of us who look up at the sky and dream. We all died a little with her passing. Should the shuttle program go on? Yes. The loss of the seven has stunned the nation, if not the world. However, planes crash killing hundreds but we still fly; buildings catch fire killing dozens but we still live in them. Auto accidents kill thousands every year but we still drive. There is risk in every human endeavor. We accept the risks and when havoc strikes we pick up the pieces and go on. Should man venture into space? Resounding YES. For if we (humanity) do not then the human race as we know it shall parish here on Earth. We are a species whos population is growing geometrically while we compete and fight amongst ourselves for dwindling finite resorces here on Earth. If we want our race to live on forever, we must venture out.
franka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams) (02/01/86)
In article <8601281921.AA01471@s1-b.arpa> dietz@SLB-DOLL.CSNET (Paul Dietz) writes: >What will happen next? Some predictions: > >The shuttle program is in very serious trouble, and stands a good >chance of being transfered to the military or being cancelled entirely. >Work will start immediately on a replacement vehicle, probably a smaller >scramjet-based TAV. The Europeans will go ahead with Hermes and HOTOL. >The space station will be postponed or suspended pending the development >of a replacement vehicle. NASA may feel compelled to invest heavily >in space robotics. > >NASA will probably survive, unless it comes out that NASA has been >hushing up internal uneasiness about shuttle reliability. In that case >the civilian space program is very likely dead. > >What a nightmare. I don't want to downplay the tragedy, which is very real, but there is a good chance that the U.S. space program will come out this stronger, not weaker. First of all, up till now, the astronauts have always seemed to be sort of fake heros. While those who examined the risks realized that they were always substantial, NASA's (essentially) perfect record led to a public perception that the risks were really rather minor. Well, now everybody knows better. Future astronauts, and even past astronauts, will be perceived as the heros they are. I expect there will also be a call to build not one new shuttle, but two. There was some movement to build a fifth shuttle as a "spare" even before this happened. As long as the shuttle program continues, the arguments for this are stronger than ever. And I think the program will continue; the arguments for it are strong enough to overcome the level of risk associated with it; that level of risk is not new, and has always been appreciated by space scientists and astronauts. Frank Adams ihpn4!philabs!pwa-b!mmintl!franka Multimate International 52 Oakland Ave North E. Hartford, CT 06108