raha@sphinx.UChicago.UUCP (Bob Hettinga) (02/07/86)
[Hello, what's all this stuff about a line-eater??] all this stuff about a line-eater?? Okay, folks. Disaster's Over. Let's pick up what we have left, and move on. It WILL get better... I've been watching the comments, etc. about the Challenger accident, and I have a few observations to make: 1.) I think this accident will have *some* good consequences. My reasons: -- How many people have you talked to about space this week who would normally care less? (It's Friday, one week after, as I write.) What a chance to talk about the need for a manned space program and human expansion into space! The national discussion alone may compensate for the loss of the Challenger and NASA's current schedule setback. Obviously, nothing can compensate for lives lost. -- If there's a need for design modifications, or if a new generation is called for, it will be easier to do because public attention is much more focused. Certainly more than it would have been if NASA was nickle-and- dimed to death in the congressional cloakrooms. I don't think that NASA would have gotten any major design modifications, much less new launch systems, through Congress for another ten years, even with strong help from a favorable administration. Gramm-Rudman (sp) and the deficit would have been used as a stalking-horse. -- It's certainly galvanized the feelings of space development's supporters. A whole lot of people have stood up in the last week who have never done so before. Hopefully they will take a more active role in supporting not only NASA's work, but other space related issues as well. Getting people into space for keeps will involve much more than inter-institutional fights over government funding. It will require making space development profitable, not just possible. The engineering and design work is remarkably far along. What's needed now are studies (hell, careers; businesses!) in finance, law, economics, operations analysis, and other commercially related fields, devoted to the problems of developing our solar system. It will be much easier to emphasize their importance now. 2.) It's been said before, but it bears repeating. The exploration and development of space is going to be HARD. NASA's remarkable record, made more remarkable by the very nickle-and-dime atmosphere I've mentioned above, had to be tarnished sooner or later. The day won't be very far off when accidents like this (exclusive of the large percent of hardware we've just lost) will get as much news as a shuttle launch did just before the accident. Not because they will happen often :-), but because they're part of the transaction cost of space technology. Personally, I look forward to it. It means we'll be well on the road to permanent space habitation. 3.) Okay. I'm just about through, but I have a list of predictions. Completely unsupported (the only way to fly!), though I'd almost bet money on them. --- NASA will get at least one more shuttle. Maybe two. (stretching it a bit, eh? watch this...) --- Whether or not NASA gets Challenger II (please, not 'Phoenix' ;-) ), the demand for commercial *manned* payload delivery to space will force the building of a commercial shuttle. Maybe two. (William Sword, Prudential, Freddy Smith, are you listening?) --- The Challenger accident will be viewed as a minor correction before the first big bull market in commercial space transportation. I think *that* will start within the next 2-3 years and will continue throughout the remainder of the century. (I also think I hear ice cracking under me...) --- The above space transport market will generate enough business for someone to design a really cost effective private reusable rocket, and then all hell will break loose. I love it when I push my luck. Sorry about writing a book here; philosophy degrees are dangerous. -rah -- Bob Hettinga (Chairman, CEO, Virtual Vaccuum Ventures, Inc. ( V3I ) ) UUCP: ...!ihnp4!gargoyle!sphinx!raha Phone: 312-684-8340 Home Address: 5454 South Dorchester Chicago, Illinois 60615