dls@mtgzz.UUCP (d.l.skran) (02/12/86)
At long last Mr. Dietz has acknowledged that humans in LEO may be a good thing, at least for now. This makes me feel a little better. I think we've all benefited from this debate since we need to be forced to defend human-in-space and have very solid arguments, especially now. In the long run Paul is right: robots and teleoperators will be very big in space. No space colonies or Solar Power Satellites will be build without them. However, at every state of the process, starting now with the shuttle arm, there will exist a need for human control, probably fairly nearby. Any technology(including the shuttle) can be over-promoted. I suggest that Paul has been over-optimistic in his short term estimate of robotics and teleoperation. We must not allow our desire to push into space to lead us in this direction. Every decision must be made on the facts, not on speculation. If the shuttle cargo bay really vibrates, where are numbers, the reports, the data? If the shuttle can economically be converted to an unmanned vehicle, where are the engineers who endorse this idea? If we can build a TAV now, where are the plans? The working engine? The computer simulations? Paul also has seemed resistant to the idea that the shuttle is in fact valuable, in spite of many points made its favor. Let me add one more. All R&D has fixed lead times. Even if the shuttle is not the ideal cheap place to do R&D, we need it(and the space station) YESTERDAY. The truth is that we are 10 years(at least) worth of zero-gee research away from knowing how(or what) to manufacture in space. This delay cannot be compressed by optimism. We must build on existing R&D now, and we must continue it. Paul vastly(!) overestimates the utility of drop towers, sounding rockets, jets, and small unmanned capusles as ways of getting zero gee. We need a lab bench in orbit with standard equipment. Spacelab is full of specialized(and expensive) stuff. We need to be able to easily and regularly bring up and return samples and equipment. We need crews of scientists working around the clock - not because humans are cheap labor in space, but because time cannot be manufactured. Eventually, no doubt, robots and teleoperated systems may do most of the work. Eventually, we may all be dead. Eventually isn't good enough. Getting space based civilization established is going to take a while. We can't afford wait. Dale