[net.space] Sirius Supernova?

gsmith@brahms.BERKELEY.EDU (Gene Ward Smith) (02/28/86)

In article <8602272123.AA08936@s1-b.arpa> REM%IMSSS@SU-SCORE.ARPA writes:

>B> A large, space-going cephalopod could come along and eat the whole planet.
>B> Get serious (pun intended) Sirius isn't going to blow up. Why don't you 
>B> learn some Astronomy if you like space so much? It is very interesting
>B> stuff.

>Why don't you learn some Astronomy. (Sorry, just retaliating; I could
>slightly wrong too, so please anyone who knows better please do
>correct any errors I make.) Sirius *is* going to blow up, go supernova
>probably, in about 10 million years, long before our Sun goes
>red-giant. But probably Sirius and the Sun will have drifted far away
>by then. More dangerous are Betelguese and Antares, either of which
>could go supernova within the next 1000 years, before they drift too far away.

    Please don't apologize for your sarcasm. I like it, because it is the
style I find easiest to use myself. Worry about being polite impedes the
flow of thought.

    Since this has turned into an Astronomy discussion, I am cross-posting
it there. I don't know if you or the first poster are talking about a
type I or type II supernova to start with. Sirius A is about 2.3 solar
masses (all I am saying is off the top of my head, I am hoping the experts
will settle this one) and this is too small for iron core collapse, carbon
detonation, etc. A type I supernova model exists where a dwarf is forced
beyond the Chandresekar limit. Sirius B I recall as 1.05 solar masses, well
below the limit. When Sirius is in its giant stage, it will presumably
give some matter up to Sirius B. If this becomes a big deal, it looks like
the usual nova (not supernova) situation.

   Once more off the top of the old head, I recall Betelguese and Antares
as being both about 400 light years away; hardly close enough to sterilize
the planet Earth or whatever.  Eta Carinae (?) is even closer to supernova.

    Sirius right now is firmly on the main sequence. I think its luminosity
is about 23 times the Sun (which checks with my figure for its mass) and
this would give it one tenth the time of the Sun on the main sequence; i.e.,
about a billion years. How much has gone? I don't know, but why do you
assume most of it? You might think it has picked up some mass from the
giant stage of Sirius B, which would mean it was burning slower before,
and its time on the main sequence far from nearly over.

   My sarcasm in the first posting was caused partly by the fact that the
author seemed to suggest that Sirius was a kind of ticking bomb, sitting
there quietly on the main sequence. What gives with you people making plans
100 or 200 million years in advance, anyway? This is pretty silly, because
there is no way you can even guess about 100 million years from now, and
no way (despite the "Its urgent to do it in 100 or 200 years! Help!") rant
of the article I responded to, to *do* anything sensible in planning for
things 100 million years from now. Grow up, folks!

ucbvax!brahms!gsmith    Gene Ward Smith/UCB Math Dept/Berkeley CA 94720
ucbvax!weyl!gsmith      "Are you by any chance from South Africa?" - RR